Quarterly Demographic Estimates
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Estimates released in this publication are based on the 2016 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves to which is added the estimated demographic growth for the period from May 10, 2016 to the date of the estimate.
These estimates are not to be mistaken with the 2021 Census counts, which will be released on February 9, 2022. Total population estimates based on the 2021 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves, will be available in September 2023.
The analysis in this publication is based on preliminary data. These data will be revised over the coming years, and it is possible that some trends described in this publication will change as a result of these revisions. Therefore, this publication should be interpreted with caution.
Most of the components, used to produce preliminary population estimates, are estimated using demographic models or based on data sources less complete or reliable, albeit more timely, than those used for updated or final estimates.
Some of the estimation methods usually used were adjusted to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (deaths and the components of emigration).As the adjustments follow what was done in the second quarter of 2020 (see Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19), a technical supplement was not produced for the first quarter of 2021. For this quarter, the returning emigration component was adjusted as it has been since the third quarter of 2020. For the first two quarters of 2020, the variation of monthly rates of persons registered in the Register of Canadians Abroad (ROCA) returning to Canada was applied to the adjusted number of entries from Primary Inspection Kiosks (PIK). Since the third quarter of 2020, the ratio between ROCA and PIK data has been applied to the adjusted PIK numbers.
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