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Canada posts a record population increase

According to preliminary estimates, Canada’s population was estimated at 36,443,632 on October 1, 2016, an increase of 157,207 compared with July 1, 2016. In absolute numbers, Canada’s population growth in the last quarter was the highest posted since the start of the period covered by the current system of demographic accounts (July 1971).

International migration accounts for most of the population growth

Population growth at the national level is based on two factors: natural increase ¹  and net international migration, ²  while provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in interprovincial migration.

According to preliminary estimates, natural increase in the third quarter of 2016 was 40,795, or the difference between 104,944 births and 64,149 deaths.

Net international migration remained the main driver of population growth, with an estimated increase of 116,412 between July 1 and October 1, 2016. International migration growth peaked for a second straight quarter. The increase in the last quarter was mainly fuelled by the arrival of a record number of non-permanent residents (+57,362). Compared with the same period last year, immigration decreased 14%, while other components of international migration remained relatively stable.

Population growth was positive in most provinces and territories

During the third quarter of 2016, population growth ³  was positive in all provinces and territories, except the Northwest Territories, where the population declined, and Newfoundland and Labrador, where the population remained relatively stable. Compared with the same period last year, an increase in population growth was observed in most provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta were the only provinces to post population increases that were smaller in the third quarter of 2016 than in the same quarter of 2015.

For the first time since the second quarter of 2001, Ontario posted the highest rate of population growth (0.6%). The province’s population increased by 80,272 between July 1 and October 1, 2016, a provincial record for quarterly growth since the start of the period covered by the current system of demographic accounts (July 1971). On October 1, 2016, Ontario’s population had surpassed the 14-million mark, numbering 14,063,256 residents.

For a second consecutive quarter, Alberta’s population growth rate was equal to Canada’s rate (0.4%). In the previous 18 quarters, Alberta’s population had always increased faster than Canada’s.

International migration is the main driver of growth in all provinces

Net international migration was the main driver of population growth in every province and in Yukon in the third quarter of 2016. The same trend was observed in the previous quarter. Moreover, the increase of the international migratory growth observed at the national level (compared to the third quarter of 2015) was seen in nearly every province. The only exception was Alberta, whose net international migration in the third quarter of 2016 was less than in the same period in 2015.

In most provinces, an increase in the number of non-permanent residents was behind the rise in international migratory increase. The number of non-permanent residents rose more in the third quarter of 2016 than in the third quarter of 2015 across Canada, except in Nunavut. Record increases, for all quarters combined, were noted in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Continuing a long-term trend, Nunavut posted the highest rate of natural increase (+0.5%) during the third quarter of 2016. Moreover, the Atlantic provinces recorded approximately the same number of births and deaths, resulting in zero natural increase according to preliminary estimates.

The interprovincial migration situation has changed considerably since the last quarter of 2015. For a fourth consecutive quarter, more people left Alberta to settle in another province or territory than vice versa. Alberta’s interprovincial migratory loss (-3,850) in the last quarter was the greatest since the second quarter of 1988 (-5,037). Conversely, Ontario’s interprovincial migration gains have been increasing steadily since the last quarter of 2015. With a net interprovincial migration of +11,591, Ontario posted the biggest gains in Canada. This province had not seen such high interprovincial migratory increase since the third quarter of 1987 (+18,760). The increase in Ontario’s net interprovincial migration was mainly the result of increased gains in its exchanges with Alberta and British Columbia. Compared with the second quarter of 2016, fewer people left Ontario for those two provinces and more people came to Ontario from those provinces. Still, most of Ontario’s interprovincial migratory gains resulted from its exchanges with Quebec.