Analysis

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Canada’s population grew at a fast pace for a first quarter

According to preliminary estimates, Canada’s population was estimated at 36,155,487 on April 1, 2016, an increase of 106,966 compared with January 1, 2016. The population growth rate ¹  in Canada in the first quarter of 2016 was 0.3%, up from the rate for the same quarter in 2015 (+0.1%). The population growth rate has not reached this level for a first quarter since 2009.

Population increase mainly driven by international migration

Population growth at the national level is based on two factors: natural increase ²  and net international migration, ³  while provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in interprovincial migration. According to preliminary estimates, natural increase in the first quarter of 2016 was 20,300, or the difference between 93,065 births and 72,765 deaths. During the same period, net international migration was 86,666, a strong increase compared with the first quarter of 2015 (+26,419).

Preliminary estimates indicate that in the first quarter of 2016, Canada received 86,216 immigrants. Since the introduction of the current system of demographic accounts in July 1971, Canada had never received so many immigrants in a single quarter. The previous record was set in the third quarter of 2010 (84,292). By comparison, the number of immigrants was 51,083 in the first quarter of 2015, which indicates an increase of 68.8%. The arrival of Syrian refugees largely accounts for the increase in the number of immigrants posted in the first three months of 2016 ⁴  .

Also, the number of non-permanent residents increased by 13,122 during the first quarter of 2016, compared with a decrease of 11,992 during the same period in 2015.

Population growth was positive in all 13 provinces and territories

For the first time since the third quarter of 2012, population growth ⁵  was positive in all the provinces and territories. The population growth rate for the first quarter of 2016 was above the national average (+0.3%) in Alberta (+0.4%), Manitoba (+0.4%), Nunavut (+0.4%) and Saskatchewan (+0.4%). However, Alberta was the only province whose population growth rate did not increase significantly compared with the first quarter of 2015.

After posting population declines in the first quarter of 2015, the provinces of Prince Edward Island (+0.3%), Nova Scotia (+0.2%) and New Brunswick (+0.2%) posted positive population growth for the same period in 2016.

International migration was the main driver of growth in all the provinces

During the first quarter of 2016, population growth in all provinces was mainly driven by net international migration. In this quarter, the highest net international migration rates were recorded in Manitoba (+0.4%), Prince Edward Island (+0.4%) and Saskatchewan (+0.4%). Moreover, since the introduction of the current system of demographic accounts, the net international migration rate reached a record high for a first quarter in each of these three provinces, as well as in Nova Scotia (+0.2%) and New Brunswick (+0.2%).

Between January 1 and April 1, 2016, all provinces except Ontario and British Columbia received a record number of immigrants for a first quarter.

The Northwest Territories (+0.3%) and Nunavut (+0.5%) had the highest rates of natural increase. Since it was created, Nunavut has always had the highest rate of natural increase in the country. Furthermore, natural decrease was observed in each of the Atlantic provinces.

According to preliminary estimates, net interprovincial migration was positive in only two provinces: British Columbia (+5,067) and Ontario (+1,101). For a second consecutive quarter, Alberta posted interprovincial migration losses, with a decrease of 1,788 persons, the largest decrease since the fourth quarter of 2009 (-2,202). Although Alberta registered gains in its migratory exchanges with seven of the nine other provinces and two territories, these were more than offset by the losses with Ontario (-664) and British Columbia (-2,628).