Analysis

View the most recent version.

Archived Content

Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.

Archived

This page has been archived on the Web.

Population estimates released today are based on the 2011 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves to which is added the estimated demographic growth for the period from May 10, 2011 to September 30, 2014.

National population growth

According to preliminary estimates, Canada’s population was estimated at 35,675,800 on October 1, 2014, up 135,400 from July 1, 2014. The population growth in Canada for the third quarter of 2014 reached 0.4% while the growth over the last year stood at 1.1%. The increase for the third quarter of 2014 is similar to what was observed for the same period in 2013.

At the national level, population change is the result of two factors, natural increase ¹  and net international migration ²  . From July 1 to September 30, 2014, natural increase was estimated at 41,900 and resulted from the difference between 103,500 births and 61,600 deaths. Over this period, natural increase accounted for one-third (+30.9%) of the country’s population growth. Since July 1, 1971, the starting point of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system, natural increase in Canada has always been positive, meaning that the number of births has always exceeded the number of deaths.

Net international migration was 93,500 during the third quarter of 2014, a level slightly higher than that for the same period in 2013 (+92,500). Net international migration accounted for two-thirds (69.1%) of the country’s population growth. During the third quarter, preliminary estimates show that Canada welcomed 65,500 immigrants while the number of non-permanent residents increased by 40,800. On the other hand, net emigration ³  , which refers to the net number of people that left the country to live abroad, was estimated at 12,900.

Provincial and territorial population growth

At the provincial and territorial level, population change also results from net interprovincial migration, in addition to natural increase and net international migration. Population change can vary among provinces and territories ⁴  . Preliminary estimates show that in the third quarter of 2014, population growth was above the national average (+0.4%) in Yukon (+0.7%), Alberta (+0.6%) and British Columbia (+0.6%).

Atlantic provinces

According to preliminary estimates, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador changed little during the third quarter of 2014. The main reason for the low growth of the province was that its net gain in international migration (+600) was offset by negative net interprovincial migration (-700), with most of the net outflow going to Ontario.

Prince Edward Island’s population increased (+0.2%) in the third quarter of 2014 to reach an estimated 146,500 on October 1, 2014. The province’s population growth was mainly due to a gain in net international migration (+700), which was offset by losses in net interprovincial migration (-500).

During the third quarter of 2014, the population of the other two Atlantic provinces increased by 0.1%. On October 1, 2014, Nova Scotia’s population was estimated at 943,900 and New Brunswick’s at 754,600. Net international migration (+1,100 for Nova Scotia and +1,300 for New Brunswick) was the main contributor to the population increase in these two provinces. During this quarter, Nova Scotia welcomed close to 700 immigrants and recorded an increase in the net flow of non-permanent residents (+800). In New Brunswick, the gain in net international migration was mainly driven by immigration (+1,000) which was the highest level for any quarter since 1971. At the same time, net losses in interprovincial migration were much lower for both provinces, compared to the levels recorded in the third quarter of the past two years.

Central Canada

Quebec’s population grew by 21,600 in the third quarter to an estimated 8,236,300 on October 1, 2014. This growth was mainly due to net international migration (+17,300) and natural increase (+9,400). Compared to the same period in 2013 (+14,100), net international migration in the third quarter of 2014 was slightly higher while natural increase remained stable. Third-quarter losses in net interprovincial migration increased slightly from -4,200 in 2013 to -5,000 in 2014. Preliminary estimates show that most of Quebec’s net outflows in interprovincial migration were observed in the province’s exchanges with Ontario (-2,200) and Alberta (-2,100).

The population of Ontario was estimated at 13,730,200 as of October 1, 2014, an increase of 51,400 (+0.4%) from July 1, 2014. This growth was mainly attributable to net international migration (+36,800) and natural increase (+15,300). In the third quarter of 2014, the province posted a net interprovincial migration of -600, a smaller net loss than that of the same period in 2013 (-1,000). This was mainly attributable to the smaller deficit in Ontario’s exchanges with Alberta, which went from -4,700 in the third quarter of 2013 to -2,700 in 2014.

Western Canada

As of October 1, 2014, the population of Manitoba was estimated at 1,286,300. The province experienced a population growth of 4,300 (+0.3%) in the third quarter of 2014. Net international migration (+4,900) was the main factor behind Manitoba’s population increase, the largest for a third quarter since 1971. Net international migration was fueled by the arrival of 4,200 immigrants, a number close to the peaks observed in the third quarters of 2010 (+4,700) and 2011 (+4,500).

With a growth of 4,500 people (+0.4%) in the third quarter of 2014, Saskatchewan’s population was estimated at 1,129,900 on October 1, 2014. The growth was mainly due to net international migration (+3,100). In the third quarter of 2014, Saskatchewan welcomed 2,800 immigrants, the highest third-quarter level recorded since 1971. These net gains were offset by a loss in net interprovincial migration (-400), the first loss after seven consecutive third-quarter gains.

Alberta recorded a population growth of 0.6% in the third quarter of 2014 to reach 4,146,000 as of October 1, 2014. The province continued to benefit from its gains in all three factors of population change, with natural increase (+9,100) leading, followed closely by net international migration (+8,900) and net interprovincial migration (+6,300). During the third quarter of 2014, Alberta received 10,300 immigrants, the highest level for a third quarter since 1971. On the other hand, the province’s net gains in interprovincial migration (+6,300) decreased by almost 40% when compared to the same period in 2013 (+10,300). Alberta posted its main gains in net interprovincial migration with Ontario (+2,700), Quebec (+2,100) and Manitoba (+1,000).

The population of British Columbia was estimated at 4,657,900 on October 1, 2014, an increase of 26,600 (+0.6%) since July 1, 2014 and the largest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 1995. The population growth was mainly attributable to net international migration (+18,800) which was the highest for any quarter since 1971. Net interprovincial migration (+4,200) and natural increase (+3,700) also contributed to the province’s population growth. During the quarter, the province posted its highest increase of net non-permanent residents (+14,300) for any quarter since 1971. British Columbia also posted a gain in net interprovincial migration which was the highest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2007. Most of the province’s net inflows of interprovincial migration came from Ontario (+900), Manitoba (+900) and Quebec (+800).

The territories

According to preliminary estimates, all three territories posted population increase in the third quarter of 2014. The population of Yukon was estimated at 36,800 on October 1, 2014, up 0.7%. The population of Northwest Territories increased by 0.4% to reach 43,800 as of October 1, 2014. Finally, the population of Nunavut was estimated at 36,700 on October 1, 2014, a population increase of 0.3% since July 1, 2014.