Analysis

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In the first quarter of 2012, preliminary estimates show that Canada's population grew by 85,300 or 0.2% to an estimated 34,755,600 on April 1, 2012. This is fairly similar to the first-quarter ¹ growth observed in 2011.

More than two thirds (+71%) of the country's demographic growth in the first quarter of 2012 was attributable to a net gain in international migration, while 29% was due to natural increase, the difference between births and deaths.

Net international migration was estimated at 60,300 in the first quarter of 2012, up 10,900 from the same period in 2011. During the first quarter of 2012, Canada received 55,500 immigrants, compared to 49,600 for the same period in 2011. In addition to a higher level of immigration, Canada recorded an increase in net non-permanent residents in the first quarter of 2012 (+13,700) when compared to the same period in 2011 (+8,700).

Natural increase was 25,000, fairly similar to the level observed in the same quarter of the previous year (+25,200).

Population growth in the provinces and territories

In the first quarter of 2012, Alberta (+0.8%) had the fastest growth rate in Canada. By contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.3%), Northwest Territories (-0.2%), New Brunswick (-0.1%) and Nova Scotia (-0.1%) each posted a population decline during the quarter. Among the other provinces and territories, Nunavut (+0.6%), Saskatchewan (+0.4%), Yukon (+0.4%) and Manitoba (+0.3%) had a growth rate above the national average.

Atlantic provinces

In the Atlantic region, preliminary estimates show that Prince Edward Island is the only province (+0.1%) that had population increase in the first quarter of 2012. On April 1, 2012, the population of Prince Edward Island was estimated at 146,100. The other Atlantic provinces all posted increasing losses in net interprovincial migration that contributed to a decrease in their population for the first quarter of 2012.

Preliminary estimates show that the population of Newfoundland and Labrador declined in the first quarter of 2012 by approximately 1,700 (-0.3%) to a total of 509,300 on April 1, 2012. This is the largest first quarter loss since 2007 (-1,800). The population decline was mainly due to loss in net interprovincial migration (-1,600).

On April 1, 2012, Nova Scotia's population was estimated at 945,000, down 0.1% from January 1, 2012. This decline was mainly the result of losses in interprovincial migration (-1,200), the largest net loss in interprovincial migration in a first quarter for the period covered by the current system of demographic accounts that began in July 1971. Conversely, Nova Scotia experienced the biggest gain in net international migration (+700) in a first quarter since 1972 ² .

New Brunswick's population declined by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2012, to a total of 755,400 as of April 1, 2012. Net loss in interprovincial migration (-1,000) accounted for most of the province's decline and the biggest loss for this quarter since 1972.

Central Canada

Preliminary population estimates show that in the first quarter of 2012, Quebec (+0.2%) and Ontario (+0.2%) experienced population growth comparable to that observed in the same period of 2011.

The population of Quebec was estimated at 8,028,400 on April 1, 2012, up 15,400 from January 1. Net international migration (+12,400) accounted for most of the province's growth. The province posted a deficit of 1,900 in net interprovincial migration, the largest loss for a first quarter since 2007 (-2,500).

Ontario's population was estimated at 13,472,400 on April 1, 2012, following growth of slightly more than 27,000 (+0.2%) during the first quarter of 2012. This growth was mainly due to net international migration (+22,100). Net interprovincial migration was -3,900 compared to -700 in the same quarter in 2011. The deficit was largely due to an increased outflow to Alberta, from -1,000 in 2011 to -4,400 in 2012.

Western Canada

In the first quarter of 2012, all Western provinces except British Columbia had population growth similar to or above the national average. Alberta (+0.8%) posted the largest population increase in Canada.

The population of Manitoba was estimated at 1,261,500 as of April 1, 2012, an increase of 3,200 (+0.3%) from January 1. The main contributor to the province's population growth was net international migration (+3,000). The gain in net international migration was the highest level for a first quarter. This increase in net international migration was mainly the result of an increase in the number of immigrants (+3,200), the highest level for a first quarter.

Saskatchewan's population grew by 4,500 (+0.4%) in the first quarter to an estimated 1,072,100 on April 1, 2012. It was the largest population increase for a first quarter since 1972. Growth in net international migration (+3,400), which accounted for most of the increase, was the highest gain for any quarter since 1971 along with that observed in the third quarter of 2011. Slightly more than 2,800 immigrants settled in Saskatchewan during the first quarter, the largest number of immigrants for any quarter since 1971.

Alberta recorded population growth of 29,100 (+0.8%) in the first quarter of 2012, reaching a population of 3,847,100 on April 1, 2012. During the first quarter of 2012, Alberta posted a gain of 13,400 in net interprovincial migration. These were the highest numbers for both population growth and interprovincial net migration for a first quarter since the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic system. Alberta gained substantially in its interprovincial exchanges with Ontario (+4,400), British Columbia (+2,700) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2,300). In these three cases, these gains were considerably larger than those recorded during the same period last year. Also, net international migration (+8,700) reached its second highest level for that period of the year since 1971. This was mainly attributable to immigration (+7,500), which was the highest level observed since 1971.

The population of British Columbia was estimated at 4,606,500 on April 1, 2012, an increase of 8,500 (+0.2%) since January 1. This was the smallest population growth for a first quarter since 2004 (+6,300). Population growth was mainly the result of net international migration (+9,000) which was slightly higher than that observed during the same period in 2011 (+7,100). British Columbia posted net interprovincial migration losses of 2,600 in the first quarter of 2012, an increase compared to 2011 (-100). The province's largest deficit was in its exchanges with Alberta (-2,700).

The territories

In the North, two of the three territories posted population increases in the first quarter of 2012. The population of Yukon was estimated at 35,000 on April 1, 2012, up 0.4%. Nunavut's population growth was 0.6% in the first quarter of 2012. The territory's population was estimated at 33,600 on April 1, 2012. Lastly, the population of the Northwest Territories was estimated at 43,200 on April 1, 2012, a population decline of 0.2%.