Analysis

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In the third quarter of 2011, Canada's population grew by 122,600 (0.4 %) to an estimated 34,605,300 on October 1, 2011. This is fairly similar to the third-quarter ¹  growth observed in recent years.

National population growth is the result of two components: net international migration and natural increase. In the third quarter of 2011, net international migration accounted for about two-thirds (64%) of the country's population growth. Compared with the same quarter in 2010, net international migration declined 7.4% and natural increase was up 1.6%. In the third quarter of 2011, net international migration was estimated at 78,500, down from 84,800 in 2010.

Close to 71,900 immigrants arrived in Canada in the third quarter of 2011, 12,400 fewer than in the same period in 2010. This is the smallest number of immigrants for a third quarter since 2008 (71,300). The decline was partially offset by an increase in the net flow of non-permanent residents between the third quarters of 2010 and 2011. In the third quarter of 2011, the net increase of non-permanent residents was estimated at 25,800, compared with 19,600 in 2010.

Natural increase was estimated at 44,100, up slightly from the third quarter of 2010 (43,400). This growth resulted from the difference between the estimated 103,300 births and 59,200 deaths between July 1 and September 30, 2011.

Population growth in the provinces and territories

Preliminary estimates show that in the third quarter of 2011, all provinces had positive population growth. Four provinces, all west of Quebec, experienced growth comparable to or above the national average: Saskatchewan (0.5%), Alberta (0.5%), British Columbia (0.4%) and Ontario (0.4%). The Northwest Territories were the only place in Canada where the population declined in the third quarter of 2011 (-0.4%).

Atlantic provinces

In the Atlantic region, Prince Edward Island (0.2%), Newfoundland and Labrador (0.1%) and Nova Scotia (0.1%) had population increases in the third quarter of 2011. The population of New Brunswick remained essentially unchanged. With the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, population growth in the Atlantic provinces was smaller than in 2010. In fact, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick recorded their lowest third-quarter population growth since 2006. The main factor in the Atlantic provinces' population growth in the third quarter was international migration.

In the third quarter of 2011, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador increased by 700 to an estimated 511,300 on October 1, 2011. According to preliminary estimates, the province registered positive population growth for a second straight quarter. Compared with its migration losses in the third quarter of 2010 (-800), Newfoundland and Labrador fared considerably better in 2011, as its net interprovincial migration was close to zero.

According to preliminary estimates for the third quarter of 2011, Prince Edward Island's population grew by 300, the smallest third-quarter increase since 2006. The growth was mainly due to net international migration (600).

Nova Scotia's population rose by 900 in the third quarter of 2011 to an estimated 946,400 on October 1, 2011. It was the smallest third-quarter increase since 2007. The growth in the province's population was primarily due to net international migration of 1,300, the lowest level since 2007.

In the third quarter of 2011, the population of New Brunswick increased by 400, the smallest third-quarter growth since 2006. On October 1, the province's population was 755,800. New Brunswick's interprovincial migration losses (-800) in this quarter were the largest for any quarter since the third quarter of 2006 (-1,800).

Central Canada

Preliminary population estimates show that in the third quarter of 2011, Ontario (0.4%) and Quebec (0.3%) experienced population growth comparable to that observed in the same period of 2010.

Quebec's population growth was 22,400 in the third quarter. International migration (11,900) and natural increase (10,300) accounted for most of the increase. It was the province's lowest net international migration flow in a third quarter since 2005. The preliminary estimates also indicate that Quebec's third-quarter interprovincial migration losses have been diminishing since 2009. In fact, in the third quarter of 2011, net interprovincial migration was close to zero.

With growth of 49,900 in the third quarter, Ontario's population rose to 13,422,900. International migration was responsible for just over two-thirds of the province's population increase (33,800). However, it was the smallest net international migration flow for a third quarter since 1998 (23,300).

Western Canada

In the third quarter of 2011, all western provinces except Manitoba had population growth similar to or above the national average. Saskatchewan (0.5%) and Alberta (0.5%) posted the largest population increases among all provinces.

Manitoba's population grew by 4,100 (0.3%) in the third quarter to an estimated 1,254,700 on October 1, 2011. This was a slightly smaller increase than in the same period in 2010 (0.4%). International migration was the main factor in the province's population growth during the quarter (3,700). Along with that of 2010, it was the highest net international migration flow for a third quarter since the current system of demographic accounts was introduced in 1971.

With growth of 5,700, Saskatchewan's population was estimated at 1,063,500 on October 1, 2011. The increase was mainly the result of international migration (3,400), which reached its highest level for any quarter since the introduction of the current system of demographic accounts (1971). In the third quarter of 2011, net international migration was mainly explained by the number of immigrants (2,700) and the net flow of non-permanent residents (900), which were also at their highest levels for any quarter since 1971. These two components also explained the upward trend that was observed for Saskatchewan's net international migration.

Preliminary estimates indicate that between July 1 and September 30, 2011, the population of Alberta grew by 19,400 to 3,798,800. Natural increase (8,700) and net international migration (7,600) accounted for most of the province's growth. Alberta posted the largest gains in interprovincial migration flows in the third quarter of 2011 (3,100). A large portion of the gains resulted from exchanges with Ontario (1,000).

British Columbia had population growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2011, a similar increase to the estimate for the same period in 2010. On October 1, 2011, British Columbia's population was estimated at 4,592,000. The third-quarter increase of 18,700 was almost entirely due to net international migration (15,100). The estimate for net international migration in the third quarter of 2011 was slightly lower than the estimate for the same quarter of 2010. For the first time since 2001, British Columbia posted losses in its third-quarter migration exchanges with the rest of the country (-700).

The territories

Yukon's population growth was 0.6% in the third quarter of 2011. The territory's population was estimated at 34,900 on October 1, 2011. It was a return to growth after the relative stagnation observed in the third quarter of 2010.

The Northwest Territories were the only place in Canada where the population declined in the third quarter of 2011 (-0.4%). The territory's population was estimated at 43,500 on October 1. The Northwest Territories had experienced a third-quarter population decline every year since 2007.

After increasing in the third quarter of every year since 2005, Nunavut's population remained unchanged in the third quarter of 2011. It was estimated at 33,300 on October 1, 2011.