Analysis

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During the first quarter of 2010, Canada’s population surpassed the 34 million mark and was estimated at 34,019,000 on April 1, 2010. The population grew by 88,100, a 0.26% increase from January 1, 2010.

The population increase in the first quarter of 2010 was smaller than the rise of 91,400 during the same period in 2009. With the exception of 2009, the demographic growth in the first three months of 2010 was the largest first-quarter gain since 1992.

Both factors that are responsible for the Canada’s demographic growth – natural increase and net international migration – advanced at a slightly slower pace. They were smaller by 100 and 3,200 respectively between the first quarter of 2009 and the same period in 2010.

More than two thirds (71.2%) of the country’s demographic growth in the first quarter of 2010 was due to a net gain in international migration, while 28.8% was attributable to natural increase, the difference between births and deaths.

Net international migration was down

Despite an increase in the number of immigrants in the first quarter of 2010, net international migration was down as a result of a decline in the net number of non-permanent residents. Compared with 23,100 in the first quarter of 2009, the net number of non-permanent residents was 12,700 in the first three months of 2010.

During that period, Canada received 58,000 new immigrants, an increase of more than 7,200 from the same quarter in 2009.

The decrease in the net number of non-permanent residents affected certain provinces in particular. For example, in the first quarter, the net number of non-permanent residents dropped from 4,400 in 2009 to less than 100 in Alberta in 2010, and it fell by half in Quebec, to 2,100 in 2010.

Except for Nova Scotia, all provinces and territories of Canada posted a population increase in the first quarter of 2010. Nunavut had the highest demographic growth rate in the first quarter of 2010, at 1.05%.

Most Atlantic provinces experienced a population growth

The four Atlantic provinces recorded demographic growth rates below the national average. In addition, Nova Scotia was the only Canadian province that lost population in the first quarter of 2010.

The population of Newfoundland and Labrador rose to 510,900, up 0.02% from January 1, 2010, the province’s only first-quarter increase since 1992. The growth resulted mainly from a slight net gain in interprovincial migration in the first quarter of 2010 (200). Its migration exchanges were particularly large with Alberta and Ontario. Newfoundland and Labrador recorded a net gain in migration exchanges with Ontario (500), but a net loss with Alberta (-200) for the quarter.

Prince Edward Island’s population grew by 0.23%, the largest first-quarter increase since 1983. The growth was primarily attributable to the biggest net gain in international migration (300) since the current system of demographic accounts was introduced in 1971. Prince Edward Island had the second highest immigration rate among the provinces in the first quarter of 2010, just behind British Columbia.

Nova Scotia recorded a population decline of 0.03%, or 300 people, between January 1 and April 1, 2010. The loss was almost entirely due to negative natural increase, as interprovincial migration losses (-600) were offset by international migration gains (600). The province has not had such a large net gain in international migration in the first quarter since 2002.

New Brunswick’s population was estimated at 751,300 on April 1, 2010, up 0.08% from January 1, 2010. The increase was mainly attributable to the province’s biggest net gain in international migration since 1990 (400). New Brunswick’s first-quarter natural increase was negative for the third consecutive year. There was also a decrease in the net number of non-permanent residents, which fell from 400 in the first quarter of 2009 to less than 100 in the same period in 2010.

Quebec recorded its highest demographic growth since 1991

On April 1, 2010, Quebec’s population was estimated at 7,886,100, up 0.20% compared with January 1, 2010. Quebec’s demographic growth in the first quarter of 2010 was estimated at 16,100, the biggest first-quarter gain since 1991. Though net international migration (11,800) was the main factor in the province’s growth, natural increase remained above 5,500 for the third consecutive first quarter.

Quebec’s population increase in the first quarter of 2010 was similar to the growth observed during the same period in 2009. While natural increase remained steady, the smaller losses in interprovincial migration were counterbalanced by a decline in net international migration.

Despite an increase in immigration, the province’s net international migration was down, as a result of a drop in the net number of non-permanent residents. In the first quarter of 2010, that number was 2,100 in Quebec. In the first three months of 2009, it was twice that, or 4,200.

Ontario’s growth just below the national average

Ontario’s population was up 0.25%, the province’s highest first-quarter growth rate since 2005. Its population grew by 33,400 in the first quarter of 2010 and was estimated at 13,167,900 on April 1, 2010. Ontario’s interprovincial migration losses (-2,100) were the smallest for a first quarter since 2005.

The pace of Ontario’s population growth was faster in the first quarter of 2010 than in the same period in 2009 (0.22%). The higher rate was due to an increase in both net interprovincial migration (from -5,000 to -2,100) and net international migration (from 25,200 to 27,000).

Population growth remained stronger in Western Canada

Demographic growth remained stronger in Western Canada, as the western provinces all had growth rates higher than the national average.

Manitoba’s population increased by 0.30% in the first quarter of 2010. It was the province’s highest first-quarter growth rate since the current system of demographic accounts was introduced in 1971. In the first quarter of 2010, the province received more immigrants than in any first quarter since 1971. Manitoba’s population growth mainly stemmed from net international migration (2,600).

In Saskatchewan, the population rose by 0.36%, the second-highest growth rate among Canada’s provinces. It was the province’s biggest first-quarter increase since 1972 (3,700). The growth was due primarily to large net gains in both international migration (1,500) and interprovincial migration (1,300). On the other hand, the province’s net number of non-permanent residents fell to its lowest level since the first quarter of 2003.

On April 1, 2010, Alberta’s population was estimated at 3,724,800, an increase of nearly 13,000 compared with January 1, 2010. It was the province’s smallest first-quarter demographic gain since 1996 (0.35%). In fact, its growth rate was only just over half the 0.62% recorded in the first quarter of 2009.

The slowdown in the province’s population growth was largely attributable to its net gains in interprovincial migration, which were among the smallest for a first quarter since 1995. Between 1995 and 2009, Alberta’s average first-quarter gain in interprovincial migration was 5,600. It was only slightly over 300 in the first quarter of 2010.

Alberta also had the highest rate of natural increase for a Canadian province, at 7.24 per thousand. That was more than double the national average of 2.99 per thousand in the first quarter of 2010. In fact, it was the province’s highest first-quarter rate of natural increase since 1996.

British Columbia’s population grew by 16,600, or 0.37%, to just over 4,510,900. It was the third consecutive quarter in which British Columbia led all provinces in population growth rate. Three quarters of the increase was attributable to net international migration gains of 12,300 in the first quarter of 2010.

In the first quarter of 2010, the province’s net number of non-permanent residents fell to 4,100, compared with nearly 5,600 in the same period in 2009. British Columbia also ranked first in net interprovincial migration for a third consecutive quarter, with a gain of 1,600. Nearly half of British Columbia’s total in-migrants from other provinces in the first quarter of 2010 (13,900) were from Alberta (6,600), and a quarter of them were from Ontario (3,900).

The territories outpaced the provinces in demographic growth

In the first quarter of 2010, all three territories had much higher rates of population growth than the provinces or Canada as a whole (0.26%): Nunavut (1.05%), the Northwest Territories (0.57%) and Yukon (0.75%).

Nunavut’s population rose to nearly 33,000 on April 1, 2010, as a result of an increase of 300 in the first three months of 2010. Nunavut had its highest first-quarter rate of demographic growth ever (1.05%), mainly due to a large net gain in interprovincial migration. The gain was even larger than the territory’s natural increase, which is higher than that of any other territory or province in Canada. Between January and March 2010, there were 200 births in Nunavut, which translated into a birth rate more than double the national average.

With its largest net gain in international migration since the current system of demographic accounts was introduced in 1971, Yukon’s population climbed above 34,000 in the first quarter of 2010. In fact, Yukon had the highest immigration rate in the country in the first quarter of 2010. It is also a record high for the territory for any quarter since 1971.

The population of the Northwest Territories grew by 0.75% in the first three months of 2010, its largest first-quarter gain since 1995. The growth was mainly attributable to natural increase, but also to a large net gain in interprovincial migration, the territory’s largest for a first quarter since 1995.