Analysis

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On October 1, 2009, Canada’s population was estimated at 33,873,400. In the third quarter, Canada’s population grew by 133,500 (0.40%). Although down slightly from 2008, this was the strongest demographic growth at this time of the year since 1990. Net international migration (90,500) accounted for just over two thirds of Canada’s population growth in the third quarter.

While net international migration topped the 90,000 mark for the second straight year, it was down slightly from last year (92,400). The decline was largely due to the net number of non-permanent residents, which dropped from 32,100 to 26,200. Most of the decrease in the net number of non-permanent residents occurred in Alberta and Quebec. In contrast, Canada admitted 75,400 immigrants in the third quarter, the most for that period of the year since 2005. However, the increase in the number of immigrants was not enough to make up for the decline in the net number of non-permanent residents.

Canada’s natural increase in the third quarter was 43,000. In percentage terms, that is the largest increase since 1998, for any quarter, next to the level observed in the third quarter of 2008. The upward trend in natural increase was mainly attributable to a higher birth rate. For the first time since 1994, the estimated number of births for a quarter was more than 100,000. The annualized birth rate for the third quarter was the highest since 1998, for any quarter. It is the continuation of a trend that is also evident in many other developed countries.

Stronger demographic growth continues in the western provinces.

British Columbia had a higher population growth rate than any other province in the third quarter (0.56%). In addition to a sustained influx of immigrants, the province recorded its largest interprovincial migration gain (3,500) since the third quarter of 2007. That gain was also the largest interprovincial migration gain for any province from July to September.

Interprovincial migration loss for Alberta

For the first time since 1994, Alberta suffered a third-quarter loss in interprovincial migration. Even so, its population grew by 0.44% from July to September. While that is the province’s lowest third-quarter population growth since 2000, it is still above the Canadian average. Since 1994, Alberta’s quarterly population growth has invariably been higher than the national average.

From July to September, Saskatchewan’s population grew by 0.47%. Just over half of the province’s population increase was due to international migration. In percentage terms, it is the highest level of international migration for that period of the year since the current record-keeping system was introduced in 1971. The increase was mostly due to a higher number of immigrants from July to September.

In the third quarter, Manitoba posted its highest rate of population growth since 1983 (0.35%). The acceleration was primarily attributable to a sharp decline in interprovincial migration losses and higher international migration. Net interprovincial migration improved from -1,500 at the same time last year to -700, largely because of a substantial reduction in migration losses to Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario. Manitoba’s net international migration rate of 10.2 per thousand was its highest third-quarter level since the current record-keeping system was introduced in 1971.

In the third quarter, Ontario had a population increase of 0.38%, mainly because of net international migration. Ontario’s net interprovincial migration (-1,700) was at its highest level since 2002. In particular, Ontario reduced its interprovincial migration deficit with Alberta from 4,200 from July to September 2008 to 200.

Quebec: Highest quarterly population growth rate since 1988

Quebec’s population grew by 0.36% in the third quarter, primarily as a result of international migration. It is the province’s highest quarterly demographic growth rate for any quarter since 1988. The acceleration in Quebec’s population growth is largely attributable to a substantial decrease in interprovincial migration losses. For the first time since 1994, Quebec posted gains in its third-quarter migration exchanges with Alberta. Quebec’s immigration rate of 8.0 per thousand was its highest for any quarter since 1991.

For the second consecutive quarter, every one of the Atlantic provinces had an increase in population. Interprovincial migration accounted for most of Newfoundland and Labrador’s population growth, while international migration was the main contributor to the increases for the other three Atlantic provinces.

Newfoundland and Labrador posted its highest rate of third-quarter population growth since 1982 (0.26%). The acceleration was largely due to net international migration. Newfoundland and Labrador posted gains in its migration exchanges with the rest of the country for a fifth consecutive quarter. It is the third straight year that the province’s population has grown in the third quarter.

From July to September, Prince Edward Island’s population grew by 0.28%, despite losses in its migration exchanges with the rest of the country. It is the province’s lowest third-quarter demographic growth rate since 2006. Prince Edward Island’s net interprovincial migration was negative for a fourth consecutive quarter (-300). Nevertheless, fuelled by immigration, the international migration rate rose to its second-highest level for a third quarter (17.1 per thousand) since the introduction of the current record-keeping system, just behind the 2008 rate. The increase in net international migration offset the interprovincial migration losses, resulting in an increase in Prince Edward Island’s population.

In the third quarter, Nova Scotia’s population increased by 0.24%, its highest quarterly growth rate since 1989. The faster growth rate was attributable to an increase in net interprovincial migration. Nova Scotia recorded its largest interprovincial migration gains (300) from July to September since 1992. For the first time since 2003, the province posted gains in its quarterly migration exchanges with Alberta (200). From July to September, Nova Scotia also had its highest international migration rate from July to September (6.9 per thousand) since the introduction of the current record-keeping system.

New Brunswick’s population increased by 0.13%, its highest quarterly growth rate for any quarter since 1991. An increase in net interprovincial migration accounted for the acceleration in the province’s demographic growth. New Brunswick posted its first third-quarter gains in interprovincial migration exchanges since 1990. Moreover, with the exception of 2008, New Brunswick recorded its highest international migration rate (3.2 per thousand) for that period of the year since 1975, primarily due to immigration.

In the North

In northern Canada, the populations of Yukon and Nunavut increased in the third quarter, while the population of the Northwest Territories declined.

Mostly through interprovincial migration gains, Yukon’s population grew 0.92% from July to September. It is the territory’s highest third-quarter demographic growth rate since 1995. The faster population growth was also due to interprovincial migration, as its gains were the highest for that period of the year since 2003.

With the highest rate of natural increase in Canada, Nunavut’s population grew by 0.78%. It is the territory’s highest third-quarter demographic growth rate since it was established in 1999. The acceleration in its growth rate was mainly due to gains in exchanges with the other territories and the provinces, which were the highest they have been since the territory was established (100).

For a third consecutive year, the population of the Northwest Territories declined in the third quarter (-0.45%). The decline was primarily attributable to negative net interprovincial migration (-400). It is the territory’s largest third-quarter interprovincial migration loss since 1987.