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On January 1, 2008, Canada’s population stood at 33,143,600, up 52,400 from October 1, 2007. In absolute numbers, this was the strongest demographic growth since 1992 for a fourth quarter (59,800).

The natural growth observed in the last three months of 2007 (24,700) is slightly less than that for the fourth quarter of the previous year (25,000). It is nevertheless greater than the average for the past ten years (23,300).

In all, 86,600 births were recorded, the highest number since 1995 (87,600) for a fourth quarter. Since the low in 2000 (75,300), the number of births has been steadily rising. However, this increase is offset by the number of deaths, which is normal given a greying population.

Natural growth is evolving differently depending on the region. When compared to the last three months of 2006, natural growth observed in the fourth quarter of 2007 was up in the provinces west of Manitoba as well as in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Everywhere else in Canada, natural growth was down, especially in the Atlantic provinces, which all recorded more deaths than births, a first for a fourth quarter.

Net international migration is also up. In the last three months of 2007, it stood at 27,700, the highest figure for a fourth quarter since 1988 (56,600).

Canada took in 55,600 immigrants. This number was lower than in the last three months of 2006 but was high compared to the average for the fourth quarters of the past ten years (50,900).

While Ontario remains the most popular destination for new immigrants, that attraction is on the wane. During the last quarter of 2007, Ontario’s share of the newcomer population was 47.2%. By comparison, the province was receiving around 60% of arrivals at the start of the new millennium.

Nevertheless, Ontario immigration remains strong; that province’s immigration rate (an annualized rate of 8.2 per thousand) is the second highest in Canada behind British Columbia (8.4 per thousand). Manitoba (7.7 per thousand) is the only other jurisdiction to have an immigration rate higher than that of Canada as a whole (6.7 per thousand).

Interprovincial migration is changing

The characteristics of interprovincial migration in Canada changed considerably in the last two quarters. Alberta, a major magnet in 2005 and 2006, has been losing in its population exchanges with Canada’s other jurisdictions since the middle of 2007.

In the last quarter, Alberta had net interprovincial migration of -900. Last year at the same time, the corresponding figure was 11,800. The province has a deficit in its exchanges with all other jurisdictions in Canada except for Ontario and Quebec. Excluding those two provinces, Alberta’s losses amount to 4,400.

By contrast, Saskatchewan continues to have the highest net interprovincial migration rate (8.6 per thousand) of any province. In the last quarter, that province gained 2,200 in its population exchanges with the rest of Canada. Saskatchewan gained not only in its exchanges with Alberta (1,300), but also in relation to other jurisdictions (800).

As a whole, the Atlantic region also gained in its interprovincial migratory exchanges in the last quarter. Its net migration was 1,200. Last year during the same period, the net losses were -1,200. Except for Prince Edward Island, all the Atlantic provinces registered positive net interprovincial migration, with Newfoundland and Labrador posting the second highest interprovincial migration rate amongst Canada’s provinces (5.2 per thousand).

Uneven population growth

These changes in interprovincial migration trends inevitably affect the demography of other jurisdictions in Canada, and most of those jurisdictions saw an improvement in their demographic results. Apart from Alberta, only Prince Edward Island and Nunavut were exceptions to this rule.

Whereas the Western provinces all posted population growth exceeding 10 per thousand, the provinces east of the Prairies showed growth below the national average (6.3 per thousand). Prince Edward Island was the only jurisdiction to register population losses in the last three months of 2007.

The highest population growth rates in Canada were recorded in Yukon Territory (16.9 per thousand) and the Northwest Territories (15.9 per thousand). Whereas these two territories had registered negative net figures in the last three months of 2006, they saw a return to growth especially owing to positive net interprovincial migration.

Conversely, the growth of Nunavut slowed. Migration losses, both international and interprovincial, offset the highest rate of natural growth in Canada.

Among the provinces, Saskatchewan posted the strongest growth in Canada (13.3 per thousand) for a second consecutive quarter. The province had the highest net interprovincial migration rate. That rate was positive for a fifth quarter in a row, something not seen since 1982-1984. Net international migration was also up and was the strongest observed for a fourth quarter since 1979.

Despite its interprovincial migration losses, Alberta continues to grow more rapidly than Canada as a whole. In the last quarter of 2007, the province’s demographic growth rate (12.7 per thousand) was more than double the rate for Canada (6.3 per thousand).

Alberta’s natural growth continues to rise and is the highest for any province in Canada. Natural increase in Alberta in the last three months of 2007 (6.4 per thousand) was the highest, for a fourth quarter, since 1992. Similarly, net international migration is the strongest in Canada and reached a new high for a 4^th quarter, especially owing to a sizable influx of non-permanent residents.

Manitoba ranked third among provinces in demographic growth. One explanation for this situation is Manitoba’s net interprovincial migration (300), which was positive for the first time since the first quarter of 2004 and the highest level since 1986. The province’s net international migration was also high; it exceeded the level for last year during the same period and marked a new high for a fourth quarter.

Despite a slight decrease in its migration gains, British Columbia experienced similar demographic growth (10.0 per thousand) in the last three months of 2007 as in the same period last year. The rise in natural growth made up for the decrease in the province’s net migration. In the last quarter, British Columbia’s natural growth reached a level (2,900) not attained since 1998 (3,400) for a fourth quarter.

In Central Canada, the populations of Quebec and Ontario continued to grow, but at a slower pace than for Canada as a whole. Even so, for Quebec this was its strongest growth for a fourth quarter since 1988. This increase can be explained, in particular, by a hefty increase in net international migration. Whereas that figure was 2,900 in the last three months of 2006, it was 6,500 for the same period in 2007. This was the strongest net international migration for a fourth quarter since 1988. Quebec also recorded its largest number of births for a fourth quarter since 1994.

In comparison with last year at the same time, Ontario’s demographic growth was much more robust. In the last three months of 2007, Ontario’s population grew by 11,300, whereas it grew by only 1,500 during the same period in 2006. While its natural growth was down, Ontario’s interprovincial migration losses in the fourth quarter (-3,200) were lower than in the last three months of 2006 (-10,100). Meanwhile, the province’s net international migration went from 2,400 to 6,000.

In Eastern Canada, all the provinces recorded better demographic results with the exception of Prince Edward Island. After several quarters with negative results, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador grew for a second consecutive quarter and the province posted the strongest demographic growth in the Atlantic region. Changes in interprovincial migration patterns largely explain this situation. Whereas last year at the same time, the province’s net losses stood at 500, this year the net interprovincial migration of Newfoundland and Labrador stood at 700. Net migration had not been positive for a fourth quarter since 1988.

Interprovincial migration was also the main contributor to population growth in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in the last quarter. For both provinces, the interprovincial migration losses observed in the last three months of 2006 were replaced by gains on a scale not seen in a long time. For New Brunswick, the net interprovincial migration for the last three months (200) was the highest for a fourth quarter since 1990. For Nova Scotia, such a figure for a fourth quarter had not been since 1983 (600).

After six straight quarters of demographic growth, Prince Edward Island was the only Atlantic province to register negative demographic results. Despite Alberta’s reduced lure, Prince Edward Island lost more in its interprovincial migration. In particular, the province saw increased losses in its demographic exchanges with New Brunswick and Ontario.