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On April 1, 2007, Canada’s population was estimated at 32,852,800, an increase of 75,500 compared to January 1, 2007. The rate of population growth observed in the first quarter of 2007 (0.23%) is similar to the same period in 2006.

Natural increase was stable for Canada as a whole…

The natural increase observed in the last three months (+20,700) was down compared to the fourth quarter of 2006 (+24,800). However, this is not surprising, because owing to seasonal variations in births and deaths, Canada’s natural increase is usually at its lowest level during the first three months of the year.

The excess of the number of births over the number of deaths has been fairly stable in Canada during the past five years. The increase in births observed since 2003 has been offset by a rise in the number of deaths, which is to be expected in the context of an aging population.

… but was increasingly negative in the Atlantic provinces

Natural increase is not distributed evenly throughout Canada. While it is rising in Alberta and British Columbia, it is increasingly negative in the Atlantic provinces. During the first quarter of 2007, the four Atlantic provinces for the first time simultaneously posted negative natural increase. If the trends of recent history continue, this situation will occur regularly in the coming years.

Immigration is better distributed

In the first three months of 2007, Canada received 47,900 immigrants. This was the first time since 2003 that Canada received fewer than 50,000 newcomers during a first quarter.

While Ontario continues to receive the most immigrants, its attractiveness for them is continuing to decline. In the last quarter, Ontario received 46.7% of new immigrants. Not since 1984 (44.5%) has such a low proportion been observed for a first quarter.

While Alberta and British Columbia also attracted fewer immigrants in the last quarter, the other jurisdictions received a similar or larger proportion of newcomers. Among them, Manitoba stands out with the highest immigration rate in Canada (an annualized rate of 7.8 per thousand). This is the first time that a province other than Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario can boast of having the highest immigration rate in Canada.

Number of non-permanent residents up sharply

Despite this decrease in immigration in Canada as a whole, Canada’s net international migration remained substantial, since the number of non-permanent residents increased significantly (16,200) during the first three months of the year.

Not since 1990 (17,700) has there been such an increase during a first quarter. This situation was observed in practically all jurisdictions. The increase was especially marked in British Columbia (4,400) and Alberta (3,900). For the latter province, this was, regardless of the quarter, a new high. Record increases for a first quarter were also observed in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba.

Alberta’s population growth remained strong but slowed in favour of other provinces

Alberta’s population continues to grow rapidly. Increasing by 0.57% during the last quarter, it grew at a rate 2.5 times higher than for Canada as a whole. However, this growth was less vigorous than in the first quarter of 2006 (0.77%). This was the second consecutive quarter in which Alberta’s population growth rate slowed.

Nevertheless, Alberta’s population growth remains strong; the growth rate measured in the first three months of the year is the third highest for a first quarter since the early 1980s.

The main reason for this slowdown lies in a decrease in net interprovincial migration— from +15,600 in the first quarter of 2006 to +7,400 in the last quarter. This decrease offset the growth observed in both natural increase and international migration.

Whereas the number of interprovincial entrants fell slightly during the last quarter, from 28,000 to 25,400, the number of persons leaving the province rose from 12,400 to 18,000. Such a number of out-migrants had never before been observed in a first quarter.

For a second consecutive quarter, Alberta lost in its population exchanges with the neighbouring provinces, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, as well as with Nunavut. Also, without being negative, Alberta’s net interprovincial migration in relation to the other jurisdictions generally declined.

With Alberta’s attractiveness diminishing somewhat, most other jurisdictions posted interprovincial net migration figures similar to or greater than in the first quarter of 2006. The only exceptions were Quebec and Yukon. The strongest increases in net gains in interprovincial migration were recorded in New Brunswick, Manitoba and the Northwest Territories.

Population growth stronger in Western Canada

Population growth in the last quarter was much stronger in the provinces west of Ontario. Apart from Alberta, the only provinces whose population grew at a rate equal to or greater than the rate for Canada as a whole were British Columbia (0.34%), Manitoba (0.25%) and Saskatchewan (0.23%). Nunavut joins this group with a growth of 0.87%.

For British Columbia, this was the strongest first-quarter population growth since 1997 (0.42%). The increase is primarily due to a rise in its net gains in interprovincial migration, which went from +700 to +2,500. Whereas the province’s net gains in relation to Alberta increased, British Columbia’s net interprovincial migration in relation to Canada’s other jurisdictions declined. This was the highest net interprovincial migration since the first quarter of 1996 (+3,600).

For only the second time since 1986, first-quarter population growth was greater for Manitoba than for Canada as a whole. This was Manitoba’s strongest first-quarter population gain since 1983 (+3,000).

There are several ways to explain this situation. First, the province reduced its interprovincial migratory losses. For the first time since the first quarter of 2004, Manitoba had a positive migratory balance with jurisdictions other than Alberta. In addition, registering historical peaks for the number of new immigrants and non-permanent residents, the province had its largest international net migration figure in several decades.

Saskatchewan’s growth was similar to that of Canada, owing primarily to an increase in its net interprovincial migration. Whereas the province had net losses of -2,900 in the first quarter of 2006, it posted a net gain of +1,000 in the first three months of 2007. Not since 1976 (+1,100) had it registered such a high net interprovincial migration figure for a first quarter.

For a second consecutive quarter, the province’s net interprovincial migration was positive, a phenomenon not observed since 1984. Furthermore, Saskatchewan’s interprovincial gains were not only in relation to Alberta, but also with the other parts of Canada. Indeed, for the first time since 1998, Saskatchewan’s net interprovincial migration with jurisdictions other than Alberta was positive for a third consecutive quarter.

Because its birth rate is by far the highest in Canada, Nunavut has the country’s strongest population growth, and it continues to be the only territory whose increase in population exceeds the national average.

Less rapid population growth elsewhere in Canada

Provinces and territories whose population growth was positive but below the national average were Prince Edward Island (0.12%), New Brunswick (0.04%), Quebec (0.14%), Ontario (0.22%) and the Northwest Territories (0.04%).

For the third consecutive quarter, Ontario posted population growth below the national average. Not since 1981 has the province had less rapid first-quarter population growth than the rest of Canada.

There are two explanations for this slowdown. First is the decrease in Ontario’s net international migration, which has not been so low in a first quarter since 1999. Also, despite a decrease in its interprovincial migratory losses in relation to the first quarter of 2006, those losses are nevertheless among the largest since the early 1980s. Among persons leaving Ontario for another province, more than 40% opted for Alberta.

Despite negative natural increase, the population of Prince Edward Island continued to grow. For that province, this was a fifth consecutive quarter with population growth. Last quarter’s growth is due in particular to a marked increase in net international migration. During the first three months of 2007, Prince Edward Island registered record highs for the number of immigrants and of new non-permanent residents in a first quarter.

Unlike in the first quarter of 2006, the population of New Brunswick grew in the first three months of 2007. That increase was due to two factors. First, there was an increase in province’s net international migration. Not since 1980 have so many immigrants arrived in a first quarter. Also, New Brunswick’s net interprovincial migration was the highest since 2004 for a first quarter.

During the first three months of 2007, Quebec registered a slightly lower population increase than in the same period the previous year. An increase in the province’s net international migration, due to slight rises in both the number of immigrants and the number of non-permanent residents, was not enough to offset the combined effect of a decrease in its natural increase and an increase in its losses in interprovincial migration.

Quebec’s natural increase declined even though the number of births was up compared to the first quarter of last year. Also, net losses in interprovincial migration were aggravated by an increase in departures for Alberta.

Whereas it lost more than 300 persons in the first quarter of 2006, the Northwest Territories saw a resumption in population growth in the first three months of 2007. This turnaround is due to a decrease in the territory’s interprovincial migratory losses compared to the first quarter of 2006.

Three jurisdictions lost population

Three jurisdictions recorded population losses in the first quarter: Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.39%), Nova Scotia (-0.09%) and Yukon (-0.48%).

Newfoundland and Labrador has seen it population decline steadily since the fourth quarter of 2003. Its interprovincial migratory losses (-1,900), similar to in the first quarter of 2006, remained high. Also, immigration is low and the province’s natural increase is increasingly negative.

Nova Scotia also saw its population decline during the last quarter. This was the third consecutive quarter in which the province’s net population figure was down. A rise in losses due to increasingly negative natural increase offset the fact that the province received its highest number of new immigrants since the first quarter of 1998 and also had smaller losses in interprovincial migration. Nova Scotia’s interprovincial migratory balance with jurisdictions other than Alberta was positive for a fourth consecutive quarter.

Yukon was the only territory to register a net decline in its population in the first quarter of the year. The population losses incurred by the territory are the highest since 1999 for a first quarter. This situation is due in particular to an increase in its net losses in interprovincial migration, which are the largest since 2000.