# Appendix A.4Methodology used to calculate the expected number of professionals in 2011Appendix A.4Methodology used to calculate the expected number of professionals in 2011

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The purpose of Part II of this document is to evaluate whether or not the number of professionals able to offer health care services in the minority language in 2011 matches the number expected when only demographic changes in the official-language minority are considered. On the basis of the results, it can be determined whether or not there was an increase in health care services in the minority language (that is, an increase in services when the actual number of professionals in 2011 was higher than the expected number, or a decrease in services when the actual number was lower).

The principle behind the calculation of the expected number of professionals able to provide health care services in minority languageNote 1 in 2011 is as follows: the goal is to isolate the effect of demography to determine the extent to which the increase in the number of professionals corresponds to an increase in services. To that end, for a given region, the change in the minority populationNote 2 is applied to the number of professionals in 2001; this change in the minority population is the change in potential demand. The average change in non-demographic factors is then taken into account. The average change is calculated at two geographic levels, namely the province of Quebec and Canada outside Quebec.

The formulas used are as follows:

HP_RegEXP2011 = HP_Reg2001 + VarDemog_Reg2001-11 + VarAvg_GeoHigh2001-11

where

VarDemog_Reg2001-11 = HP_Reg2001 * ((PopMin2011 – PopMin2001) / PopMin2001)

VarAvg_GeoHigh2001-11 = HP_Reg2001 * ((VarTot_GeoHigh2001-11 - VarDemog_GeoHigh2001-11) / PopMin_GeoHigh2001)

and

HP_RegEXP2011 = Expected number of health care professionals able to conduct a conversation in French in the region in 2011

HP_Reg2001 = Actual number of health care professionals able to conduct a conversation in French in the region in 2001

VarDemog_Reg2001-11 = Regional demographic change between 2001 and 2011

PopMin2011 = Regional official-language minority population in 2011

PopMin2001 = Regional official-language minority population in 2001

VarAvg_GeoHigh2001-11 = Average change, at a higher geographic level (province of Quebec and Canada outside Quebec), of non-demographic factors between 2001 and 2011

VarTot_GeoHigh2001-11 = Total actual change in the number of official-language minority professionals between 2001 and 2011, at a higher geographic level (province of Quebec and Canada outside Quebec)

VarDemog_GeoHigh2001-11 = Demographic change in the number of official-language minority professionals between 2001 and 2011, at a higher geographic level (province of Quebec and Canada outside Quebec)

PopMin_GeoHigh2001 =  Official-language minority population in 2001, at a higher geographic level (province of Quebec and Canada outside Quebec)

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