Table A.1.2.1
Estimates and projections of the population aged 0 to 29 with Aboriginal identityNote 1, and proportion of persons with Aboriginal identity among the Canadian population, by age group, Canada, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031

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Table A.1.2.1
Estimates and projections of the population aged 0 to 29 with Aboriginal identity1, and proportion of persons with Aboriginal identity among the Canadian population, by age group, Canada, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031
Table summary
This table displays the results of estimates and projections of the population aged 0 to 29 with aboriginal identity estimates, projections, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031, calculated using population in thousands and proportion of canadian population units of measure (appearing as column headers).
EstimatesNote 2 ProjectionsNote 3
Scenario 1Note 4 Scenario 2Note 5 Scenario 3Note 6 Scenario 4Note 7
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
population in thousands
Total Aboriginal identity  
Ages 0 to 29 705 725 740 740 741 750 723 732 722 708 698 773 827 863 895 933 771 820 845 862 882
Ages 0 to 4 117 121 127 130 131 129 119 121 120 117 110 128 137 144 150 151 126 131 134 135 132
Ages 5 to 14 252 237 238 247 256 261 237 236 240 240 236 255 270 289 307 320 255 268 282 290 295
Ages 15 to 19 128 131 119 117 120 126 131 119 117 118 120 140 136 140 150 160 140 136 140 149 155
Ages 20 to 24 109 127 129 118 115 119 127 129 118 115 117 135 145 140 144 155 135 145 140 144 153
Ages 25 to 29 98 109 126 128 117 115 109 126 128 117 115 116 141 150 144 148 116 141 150 144 148
  proportion of Canadian population
Total Aboriginal identity  
Ages 0 to 29 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.2
Ages 0 to 4 6.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.9 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.8
Ages 5 to 14 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2
Ages 15 to 19 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.3 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.3 5.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5
Ages 20 to 24 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.3
Ages 25 to 29 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.3 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.3
  population in thousands
North American Indian  
Ages 0 to 29 449 470 487 496 502 514 468 481 481 474 470 483 513 531 546 566 482 506 516 519 523
Ages 0 to 4 79 82 86 89 91 91 81 81 80 78 75 84 89 93 97 97 83 84 84 84 81
Ages 5 to 14 164 158 161 168 174 179 158 160 162 161 158 163 171 180 189 196 164 169 174 175 175
Ages 15 to 19 80 84 79 79 82 86 84 79 79 80 81 87 83 86 90 95 87 83 86 89 90
Ages 20 to 24 66 79 83 78 78 81 79 83 78 78 79 81 88 84 86 91 81 88 84 86 89
Ages 25 to 29 60 66 78 82 77 77 66 78 82 77 77 68 82 89 85 87 68 82 89 85 87
  proportion of Canadian population
North American Indian  
Ages 0 to 29 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7
Ages 0 to 4 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6
Ages 5 to 14 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.7
Ages 15 to 19 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.8
Ages 20 to 24 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7
Ages 25 to 29 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
  population in thousands
Métis  
Ages 0 to 29 206 207 205 199 195 194 206 204 197 192 190 241 267 287 305 325 241 266 285 302 321
Ages 0 to 4 30 33 34 34 33 31 32 34 33 32 30 37 41 44 46 46 37 40 43 44 45
Ages 5 to 14 70 62 62 67 68 68 62 62 66 67 65 75 85 97 104 109 75 85 96 103 107
Ages 15 to 19 40 37 32 30 32 34 37 32 30 32 33 44 44 46 54 59 44 44 46 54 58
Ages 20 to 24 35 39 37 32 29 32 39 37 32 29 32 45 48 47 50 58 45 48 47 50 58
Ages 25 to 29 31 35 39 37 32 29 35 39 37 32 29 41 50 52 51 53 41 50 52 51 53
  proportion of Canadian population
Métis  
Ages 0 to 29 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
Ages 0 to 4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Ages 5 to 14 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
Ages 15 to 19 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Ages 20 to 24 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4
Ages 25 to 29 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
  population in thousands
Inuit  
Ages 0 to 29 33 35 36 36 37 38 35 35 35 35 34 35 36 36 37 38 35 35 35 35 34
Ages 0 to 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5
Ages 5 to 14 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 12 12
Ages 15 to 19 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Ages 20 to 24 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Ages 25 to 29 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6
  proportion of Canadian population
Inuit  
Ages 0 to 29 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Ages 0 to 4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Ages 5 to 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Ages 15 to 19 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Ages 20 to 24 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Ages 25 to 29 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
1. "Aboriginal identify" refers to persons who reported identifying with at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit) and/or those who reported being a Treaty Indian or a Registered Indian, as defined by the Indian Act of Canada, and/or those who reported in the census that they were members of an Indian band or First Nation.
2. Figures for 2006 represent the number of people reporting Aboriginal identity in the 2006 Census, adjusted for census undercount and partially enumerated reserves.
3. The Demosim microsimulation population projections model was used to develop the projections for both the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations shown in this table. The 2006 Census serves as the base population for these projections. Projections are based on a set of assumptions on the populations at both the outset of the projections and the future evolution of the components likely to affect the size and composition of the populations. For the Aboriginal population, these assumptions were grouped together in a limited number of scenarios designed to show what would happen in the coming years if the underlying assumptions were proven correct. The components considered in these assumptions include, but are not limited to: fertility, mortality, migration, and inter- and intra-generational ethnic mobility. "Ethnic mobility" is the phenomenon by which individuals and families change their ethnic affiliation over time; for example, when an individual changes his or her affiliation over time, or when affiliation changes between parents and children. Assumptions for the Aboriginal population are from Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4 of the Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031, Statistics Canada catalogue no. 91-552-X. For the non-Aboriginal population, assumptions are from the reference scenario of the Projections of Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-551-X.
4. Scenario 1 assumes no ethnic mobility and constant fertility for the Aboriginal population, along with assumptions on other components.
5. Scenario 2 assumes no ethnic mobility and converging fertility between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, along with assumptions on other components.
6. Scenario 3 assumes constant ethnic mobility and constant fertility for the Aboriginal population, along with assumptions on other components.
7. Scenario 4 assumes constant ethnic mobility and converging fertility between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, along with assumptions on other components.
Notes: Since the total and subtotal values are independently rounded, the total values may not match the sums of the individual values.
For a brief description of this indicator, including the methodology, please see the Handbook for the Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program.
Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Special Tabulation, August 2012.
Updated December 13, 2012.
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