Chapter A: A portrait of the school-age population

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A1 Population size
A2 Cultural diversity
A3 Low income
A4 Family background

A1 Population size

Tables A1.1 and A1.2

Indicator A1 examines the evolution in the size of the Canadian pre-school and school-age population, and the population aged 25 to 29, presenting estimates and projections for these groups—for the total population (Table A.1.1) and the population with Aboriginal identity (Table A.1.2).

Concepts and definitions

• For this indicator, the school-age population includes all individuals aged 5 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. Estimates and projections are also provided for the pre-school-age population (aged 0 to 4), and the population aged 25 to 29. The following age groups, which align with the standard used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada, have been adopted for PCEIP 2007: 5 to 14; 15 to 19; 20 to 24; and 25 to 29.
  
  
• Aboriginal identity refers to people who, on the Census of Population, reported identifying with at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit). Also included in the Aboriginal identity population counts are individuals who did not report an Aboriginal identity, but did report being a Registered or Treaty Indian, and/or Band of First Nation membership (“not included elsewhere” category). Registered Indian status refers to those who reported they were registered under the Indian Act. Treaty Indians are persons who are registered under the Indian Act and can prove descent from a Band that signed a treaty. The term “treaty Indian” is more widely used in the Prairie provinces.
  
  
• The term North American Indian is used for individuals who self-identify as such and broadly refers to people who consider themselves part of the First Nations in Canada, whether or not they have legal Indian status according to the Indian Act. Métis refers to people who are of mixed Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal ancestry and who self-identify as Métis. Inuit refers to people descended from Aboriginal people who historically inhabited the Arctic regions of Canada, Alaska, Greenland and Russia, and who self-identify with this group.
  
  
• The medium-growth scenario for the total Canadian population assumes that fertility and immigration remain at their current levels throughout the projection period. It also assumes that Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia gain population through interjurisdictional migrations and that all other jurisdictions lose population through interjurisdictional migrations.
  
  
• The medium-growth scenario for the Aboriginal population assumes that mortality will be declining, that migration trends will continue their course as observed during the second half of the 1990s, and that fertility will undergo a slow decline over the projected period.
  
  
• Interjurisdictional migration is the movement of population from one province or territory to another, involving a permanent change in residence. A person who takes up residence in another province/territory is an outmigrant with reference to the province/territory of origin and an in-migrant with respect to the province/territory of destination. Net migration is the difference between in- and out-migrants.

Methodology

• The total population figures for 2001 are post-censal estimates based on the 2001 Census counts adjusted for census net undercount and incompletely enumerated reserves, and projected to the July 1 reference date. The figures for 1991 and 1996 are based on those census years, also adjusted for net undercoverage. Population  projections for 2006 and beyond were developed using the 2005 population estimates as base, and assumptions on the future course of fertility and mortality, as well as international and interjurisdictional in- and out-migrations (medium-growth scenario).
  
  
• The projections for the Aboriginal school-age population are based on those who, on the 2001 Census, declared that they had an Aboriginal identity and/or were Registered or Treaty Indians (as defined by the Indian Act) and/or were members of an Indian Band. There were 952,900 people with at least one Aboriginal identity; most of them (946,200) identified with only one Aboriginal group. A small number of people (less than 6,700) indicated more than one Aboriginal group. In addition, 23,400 people reported their status solely as Registered or Treaty Indian or as a member of an Indian Band. Together this resulted in a base population of 976,300 people. Before using this population as the base for projections, two modifications were made to the 2001 Census counts:
  
  First, it was necessary to assure that those persons who indicated that they belonged to more than one Aboriginal group were considered only once in the model, and that the 23,400 people who did not identify as Aboriginal were also included. This modification did not change the overall size of the census Aboriginal population (976,300), but introduced small changes to the size of the North American Indian population (635,700 instead of 608,800), the Métis population (295,100 versus 292,300) and the Inuit population (45,500 versus 45,100).
  
  Second, the census data were corrected for situations when the census did not count all those who should have been counted. The population living on reserves was adjusted to take into account incompletely enumerated reserves. In each census, on some Indian reserves and settlements, enumeration is not permitted or is interrupted before it can be completed. Estimates of the number of people not counted were made and added to the census number of persons living on reserves. Also, during each census enumeration, there are people who cannot be counted for various reasons (their dwelling was missed, they were not included on the census questionnaire, etc.) or who are counted more than once. Adjustment for these situations was made for the Aboriginal populations living on enumerated reserves and outside the reserves. These adjustments increased the size of the total Aboriginal population and that of specific groups.
  
  
• The projections for the Aboriginal population were prepared for individuals who, in the 2001 Census, identified with any of the following groups:  the North American Indian population, the Métis or the Inuit. Geographical detail for each group is different and depends on the group’s size. Separate projections were done for all three groups, for each of the 10 provinces and 3 territories.

Limitations

• The projection series in Tables A.1.1 and A.1.2 are based respectively on Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories (Catalogue No. 91-520) and Projections of the Aboriginal Populations (Catalogue No. 91-547). They should not be directly compared given substantial differences. The base population in the Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories is the estimated population in 2005 (Population estimates: Statistics Canada, Demography Division). The base population in the Projections of the Aboriginal Populations is the 2001 Census corrected for net undercoverage of Aboriginal people. The set of assumptions presented in either series were developed separately with different objectives.  As a consequence, different results may appear when comparing the two series, especially for specific jurisdictions with a higher concentration of Aboriginal people or for various age groups. For the detailed differences between the assumptions for the selected scenarios readers should consult the original source documents (catalogue numbers cited above).
  
  
• Although commonly used for planning purposes, population projections should be interpreted with caution as they are based on assumptions about the future course of demographic components. For instance, fertility is the main determinant of the school-age population and it may not remain stable over the next 25 years as assumed.
  
  
• Projections at the jurisdictional level should be interpreted even more carefully because interjurisdictional migration, a component that is very volatile and difficult to forecast, has a major impact on population change in the provinces and territories.
  
  
• PCEIP reports separate Canada-level indicators for people who self-identify as North American Indian, Métis or Inuit. Although this grouping lends itself to more detailed analyses of the Aboriginal population in Canada than a broad pan-Canadian grouping, it does not capture the entire picture. For instance, the grouping does not differentiate between Aboriginal people living in urban versus rural or isolated communities, or between Aboriginal people residing on/off reserves and Aboriginal people from these diverse settings may have very different opportunities, needs and aspirations. Separate Aboriginal indicators for each of the 10 provinces and three territories are also reported; again, the variations within jurisdictions may not be captured completely.
  
  
• In 1991 and previous census years, Aboriginal persons were determined using the ethnic origin question, based primarily on the ancestry dimension. The Aboriginal identity question was asked for the first time in the 1996 Census. Data from the 1991 Census are thus not directly comparable with those from subsequent census years.
  
  Changes in Aboriginal participation in the census over time also result in comparability issues. In both 1996 and 2001, enumeration in some Indian reserves and settlements was not permitted or was interrupted before it could be completed.
  
  In recent years, the census has shown evidence of changes in the reporting of Aboriginal identity over time, a phenomenon called “ethnic mobility.” A growing number of people who had not previously identified with an Aboriginal group have begun doing so. This has contributed to a substantial increase in the size of the Aboriginal population, especially in urban areas; therefore, caution should be exercised when analyzing trends for Aboriginal peoples based on previous census data.
  
  The projections for the population of Aboriginal children younger than age 15 are subject to high uncertainty as they are directly affected by future fertility and the transfer of Aboriginality from mother to child.

Data sources

Census of Population, 1991, 1996 and 2001 (total Canadian population), Statistics Canada.

Census of Population, 2001 (total Aboriginal population), Statistics Canada.

Demography Division, Statistics Canada:

A2 – Cultural diversity

Tables A.2.1 through A.2.5

Indicator A2 portrays the diversity of the school-age population in some of Canada’s major census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in terms of immigrants (Table A.2.1), visible minorities (Table A.2.2), and languages spoken at home (Table A.2.3). It also traces shifts in the proportion of the school-age population with Aboriginal identity (Tables A.2.4 and A.2.5).

Concepts and definitions

• For this indicator, the school-age population refers to all individuals aged 5 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. The following age groups, which align with the standard used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada, have been adopted for PCEIP 2007:  5 to 14; 15 to 19; 20 to 24; and 25 to 29.
  
  
• Immigrants refers to people who are, or have been, landed immigrants in Canada. A landed immigrant is a person who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Some immigrants have resided in Canada for a number of years, while others have arrived recently. Does not include non-permanent residents who are defined as people from another country who had an employment authorization, a study authorization, or a Minister’s permit, or who were refugee claimants at the time of the census and family members living here with them.
  
  
• As defined by the Employment Equity Act, visible minorities are “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.” The following visible minority responses were indicated on the census, and respondents could mark more than one group:  Chinese, South Asian, Black, Filipino, Latin American, Southeast Asian, Arab, West Asian, Japanese, Korean, multiple visible minority, visible minority not indicated elsewhere, and all others.
  
  
• Home language refers to the language spoken most often, or on a regular basis, at home by the individual at the time of the census. For this indicator, data are presented for people of school age whose home language is neither English nor French (“non-official home language”).
  
  
• Aboriginal identity refers to people who, on the Census of Population, reported identifying with at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit). Also included in the Aboriginal identity population counts are individuals who did not report an Aboriginal identity, but did report being a Registered or Treaty Indian, and/or Band of First Nation membership (“not included elsewhere category). Registered Indian status refers to those who reported they were registered under the Indian Act. Treaty Indians are persons who are registered under the Indian Act  and can prove descent from a Band that signed a treaty. The term “treaty Indian” is more widely used in the Prairie provinces.
  
  The term North American Indian is used for individuals who self-identify as such and broadly refers to people who consider themselves part of the First Nations in Canada, whether or not they have legal Indian status according to the Indian Act. Métis refers to people who are of mixed Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal ancestry and who self-identify as Métis. Inuit refers to people descended from Aboriginal people who historically inhabited the Arctic regions of Canada, Alaska, Greenland and Russia, and who self-identify with this group.
  
  
• A census metropolitan area (CMA) is a geographical unit consisting of one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a large urban area (known as the urban core) with a population count of at least 100,000. To be included in the CMA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. Once an area becomes a CMA, it is retained as a CMA even if the population of its urban core declines below 100,000.

Methodology

• The proportion of the school-age population with particular characteristics is based on information reported in the Census of Population for immigrants, visible minorities, non-official home language (neither official language spoken at home), and Aboriginal identity.
  
  
• The proportion of the school-age population with characteristic y = (number of individuals aged 5 to 24 with characteristic y) / (number of individuals aged 5 to 24).
  
  
• For both 1996 and 2001 CMA data, the 2001 Census boundaries are applied.

Limitations

• PCEIP reports separate Canada-level indicators for people who self-identify as North American Indian, Métis or Inuit. Although this grouping lends itself to more detailed analyses of the Aboriginal population in Canada than a broad pan-Canadian grouping, it does not capture the entire picture. For instance, the grouping does not differentiate between Aboriginal people living in urban versus rural or isolated communities, or between Aboriginal people residing on/off reserves and Aboriginal people from these diverse settings may have very different opportunities, needs and aspirations. Separate Aboriginal indicators for each of the 10 provinces and three territories are also reported; again, the variations within jurisdictions may not be captured completely.
  
  
• In 1991 and previous census years, Aboriginal persons were determined using the ethnic origin question, based primarily on the ancestry dimension. The Aboriginal identity question was asked for the first time in the 1996 Census. Data from the 1991 Census are thus not directly comparable with those from subsequent census years.
  
  Changes in Aboriginal participation in the census over time also result in comparability issues. In both 1996 and 2001, enumeration in some Indian reserves and settlements was not permitted or was interrupted before it could be completed.
  
  In recent years, the census has shown evidence of changes in the reporting of Aboriginal identity over time, a phenomenon called “ethnic mobility.” A growing number of people who had not previously identified with an Aboriginal group have begun doing so. This has contributed to a substantial increase in the size of the Aboriginal population, especially in urban areas; therefore, caution should be exercised when analyzing trends for Aboriginal peoples based on data from different census years.
  
  Census data re: the Aboriginal population are based on self-identification and therefore allow limited analysis of Aboriginal populations in Canada as they cannot be considered to be representative of the entire Aboriginal population.
  
  
• Until April 1, 1999, when Nunavut was officially created, data for this part of the North were included with data for the Northwest Territories. This creates a break in series for the Northwest Territories in 1999/2000.

Data source

• Census of Population, 1991, 1996 and 2001, Statistics Canada.

A3 – Low income

Tables A.3.1 and A.3.2

Indicator A3 provides information on the proportion of the school-age population living in low-income circumstances, including the length of time families have been in such situations. This information is presented for the total school-age population (Tables A.3.1 and A.3.2).

Concepts and definitions

• For this indicator, the school-age population refers to all individuals aged 5 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. The following age groups, which align with the standard used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada, have been adopted for PCEIP 2007:  5 to 14; 15 to 19; 20 to 24; and 25 to 29.
  
  
• Three living situations are presented for the population aged 5 to 24 in low-income circumstances:  living with two parents, living with a lone parent, and not living with their parent(s). The distribution of this population by number of years in low income is categorized as follows:  never in low income, up to one year in low income, and more than one year in low income.
  
  Parents captures biological and step-parents, as well as those who have adopted children. Lone parent refers to guardians and adults, regardless of marital status, without a partner but with children in their care.
  
  
• Low income is determined using Statistics Canada’s low-income cutoffs (LICOs), which indicate when a family may be in “straitened circumstances.” This means that the family is likely to spend 20% more of its net income on basic items such as food, shelter and clothing than the average family, which leaves less money available for other expenses such as health, education, transportation and recreation. LICOs are calculated for families and communities of different sizes.

Methodology

• After-tax LICOs, which better reflect the income a family has to spend on basic and other items, were used to report the percentage of children living in low-income families and the distribution by number of years in low income (up to 6 years).
  
  
• LICOs are updated annually to reflect increases in the cost of living. They are also updated periodically to reflect changes in family spending patterns.
  
  
• Low-income rates are calculated for families with all members of an economic family having the same low-income status. An economic family is defined as a group of two or more persons related by blood, marriage, common-law or adoption, and living in the same dwelling.

Limitations

• There is no internationally accepted standard for measuring poverty, nor is there an official definition of poverty in Canada. LICOs provide one of many possible measures to monitor trends in the relative economic well-being of Canadian families.
  
  
•  The Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) was designed to follow individuals for six years; therefore, the income of a given family may be estimated for a maximum of six consecutive years using data from SLID.
  
  
• The feasibility of developing low income indicators for the Aboriginal population using SLID were explored. However, the Aboriginal identifier variable used in SLID is not comparable with that used in the census or in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The identifier used in SLID is based on Aboriginal ancestry and Treaty/Registered Indian status, while the identifier used in the census and the LFS is based on Aboriginal self-identification. Moreover, the sample size of Aboriginal children aged 5 to 24 in low income in Canada is too small to support a breakdown by family characteristics and by province. And, most importantly, SLID is not recommended by subject matter experts in the Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division at Statistics Canada as a reliable source of information on the Aboriginal population.

Data sources

Survey of Consumer Finances, 1990 and 1995, Statistics Canada.

Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2000 and 2004, Statistics Canada.

A4 – Family background

Tables A.4.1 through A.4.4

Indicator A4  examines the living arrangements of the school-age population and the working status of parents.  Distributions are presented for the total school-age population (Tables A.4.1 and A.4.3) and the school-age population with Aboriginal identity (Tables A.4.2 and A.4.4).

Concepts and definitions

• For this indicator, the school-age population refers to all individuals aged 5 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. The following age groups, which align with the standard used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada, have been adopted for PCEIP 2007:  5 to 14; 15 to 19; 20 to 24; and 25 to 29.
  
  
• The 5- to 24-year-old population was grouped into the following categories to reflect living arrangements: living with parents(s), which includes married parents, common-law parents, and lone parents; and not living with parents, which captures those individuals living as a spouse or lone parent, or who have other living arrangements.
  
  Parents captures biological and step-parents, as well as those who have adopted children. Lone parent refers to guardians and adults, regardless of marital status, without a partner but with children in their care. “Other living arrangements” includes people who live with “non-family” persons; that is, people living with relatives only, living with relatives and other persons, or living with non-relatives (at least two of these non-relatives must constitute a census family).
  
  
• Percentage distributions are presented for the 5-to-24 age group overall, and for the following age groups:  5 to 14, 15 to 19, and 20 to 24.
  
  
• The Census of Population definition of family refers to a married couple (with or without children of either or both spouses), a couple living common-law (with or without children of either or both partners) or a lone parent of any marital status, with at least one child living in the same dwelling. A couple living common-law may be of the opposite or same sex. “Children” in a census family include grandchildren living with their grandparent(s) but with no parent(s) present.
  
  For the 2001 Census, several changes were made to the census family concept: two persons living in a same-sex common-law relationship, along with any of their children residing in the household, will be considered a census family. Children in a census family can have been previously married (as long as they are not currently living with a spouse or common-law partner); previously, they had to be never-married. A grandchild living in a three-generation household where the parent (middle generation) is never-married will, contrary to previous censuses, now be considered as a child in the census family of his or her parent, provided the grandchild is not living with his or her own spouse, common-law partner, or child. Traditionally, the census family usually consisted of the two older generations. A grandchild of another household member, where a middle-generation parent is not present, will now be considered as a child in the census family of his or her grandparent, provided the grandchild is not living with his or her own spouse, common-law partner, or child. Traditionally, such a grandchild would not be considered as the member of a census family.
  
  
• Aboriginal identity refers to people who, on the Census of Population, reported identifying with at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit). Also included in the Aboriginal identity population counts are individuals who did not report an Aboriginal identity, but did report being a Registered or Treaty Indian, and/or Band of First Nation membership (“not included elsewhere category). Registered Indian status refers to those who reported they were registered under the Indian Act. Treaty Indians are persons who are registered under the Indian Act  and can prove descent from a Band that signed a treaty. The term “treaty Indian” is more widely used in the Prairie provinces.
  
  The term North American Indian is used for individuals who self-identify as such and broadly refers to people who consider themselves part of the First Nations in Canada, whether or not they have legal Indian status according to the Indian Act. Métis refers to people who are of mixed Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal ancestry and who self-identify as Métis. Inuit refers to people descended from Aboriginal people who historically inhabited the Arctic regions of Canada, Alaska, Greenland and Russia, and who self-identify with this group.

Methodology

• The percentage distribution of the school-age population, by age group and living arrangements, was examined for the total Canadian population (Tables A.4.1 and A.4.3), and for the school-age population with Aboriginal identity (Tables A.4.2 and A.4.4).
  
  
•  To ensure the confidentiality of responses collected for the census, a random rounding process is used to alter the values reported for individual counts.  As a result, when data are summed or grouped, the total value may not match the sum of the individual values, since the total and subtotals are independently and randomly rounded.  However, apart from discrepancies due to simple rounding, the percentages were calculated to add up to 100%, as recommended by the census methodology group.

Limitations

• PCEIP reports separate Canada-level indicators for people who self-identify as North American Indian, Métis or Inuit. Although this grouping lends itself to more detailed analyses of the Aboriginal population in Canada than a broad pan-Canadian grouping, it does not capture the entire picture. For instance, the grouping does not differentiate between Aboriginal people living in urban versus rural or isolated communities, or between Aboriginal people residing on/off reserves and Aboriginal people from these diverse settings may have very different opportunities, needs and aspirations. Separate Aboriginal indicators for each of the 10 provinces and three territories are also reported; again, the variations within jurisdictions may not be captured completely.
  
  
• Data from the 1991 and 2001 Census were used to calculate distributions and to produce population counts for the general population.  However, because1991 Census data for the population with Aboriginal identity are not directly comparable with information collected in 2001, data from the 1996 Census year were used.
  
  
• In 1991 and previous census years, Aboriginal persons were determined using the ethnic origin question, based primarily on the ancestry dimension. The Aboriginal identity question was asked for the first time in the 1996 Census. Data from the 1991 Census are thus not directly comparable with those from subsequent census years.
  
  Changes in Aboriginal participation in the census over time also result in comparability issues. In both 1996 and 2001, enumeration in some Indian reserves and settlements was not permitted or was interrupted before it could be completed.
  
  
• In recent years, the census has shown evidence of changes in the reporting of Aboriginal identity over time, a phenomenon called “ethnic mobility.” A growing number of people who had not previously identified with an Aboriginal group have begun doing so. This has contributed to a substantial increase in the size of the Aboriginal population, especially in urban areas; therefore, caution should be exercised when analyzing trends for Aboriginal peoples based on previous census data.
  
  
• Census data re: the Aboriginal population are based on self-identification and allow for limited analysis of Aboriginal populations in Canada as they cannot be considered as representative of the entire Aboriginal population.
  
  
• In general, standard errors are not calculated for census estimates. Tables A.3.2 and A.3.4 provide numbers of Aboriginal individuals by living arrangements and work activity of parents. Some numbers at the jurisdictional level are very small and may be associated with relatively high standard errors. This is especially true for jurisdictions with small Aboriginal populations and these data should be interpreted with caution.

Data source

• Census of Population, 1991, 1996 and 2001, Statistics Canada.