Income Research Paper Series
Provisional poverty estimates for 2024

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Introduction

Official poverty estimates in Canada are produced annually using the Canadian Income Survey (CIS) and the Market Basket Measure (MBM). The MBM program is a partnership between Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) and Statistics Canada. The MBM was first introduced as Canada’s Official Poverty Line in 2018 following the release of Opportunity for All – Canada’s First Poverty Reduction Strategy. The MBM thresholds are based on the cost of a basket of goods and services that reflects a modest, basic standard of living. According to the MBM, individuals or families are considered to live in poverty if their disposable income is below the appropriate MBM threshold for their family size and area of residence.

In November 2024, Statistics Canada presented a method using preliminary Canada Revenue Agency tax slips to publish provisional poverty estimates for 2023 almost six months before the official CIS annual release.^Note  This paper builds upon the same approach to produce provisional poverty estimates for the 2024 income year. It also debuts the publication of quality indicators and the use of the 2023-base MBM methodology. It concludes by providing areas for future enhancements, including investigating additional improvements in timeliness.

Methodology and updates

This paper employs the methodology described in Preliminary poverty estimates in Canada: A new modelling approach. In summary, an estimate (or proxy) of disposable income is derived using the previous year’s CIS sample as well as tax slips from the previous and current years.^Note  Once an estimate of disposable income for the current year is derived, it is used alongside the current year’s MBM thresholds to estimate the provisional poverty rate. In this case, the most recent tax slips available for 2024 are applied to an adjusted version of the 2023 CIS sample to estimate their 2024 income which is then compared with 2024 MBM thresholds to produce the provisional estimates for 2024.^{Note  Note} 

The provisional poverty estimates presented in this paper employ the 2023-base MBM.^Note  The 2023-base MBM methodology is the result of the third comprehensive review of the MBM, which was completed in collaboration with ESDC. The poverty estimates derived using the 2018-base MBM will not be featured when the final CIS estimates are released in the spring of 2026. Provisional 2018-base MBM poverty estimates are available in the Appendix A.4 tables.

As a standard practice to ensure that the statistics continually reflect the Canadian population, the CIS periodically rebases its survey weights following the analysis of the most recently available census data. It is important to note that starting with the release for reference year 2024, the CIS will rebase its survey weights to use population estimates and geographic limits derived from the 2021 Census of Population. Therefore, the 2024 provisional poverty estimates were calculated using such newly rebased survey weights.^Note  The provisional and published statistics for prior reference years in this document remain produced using historical survey weights based on the population estimates and geographic limits following the 2016 Census.

Finally, in line with Statistics Canada’s commitment to improve the methodology of the provisional poverty estimates, this paper provides information on data quality indicators by releasing confidence intervals for the estimates. Variance estimation was conducted using bootstrap, a resampling-based method, from which the confidence intervals were derived. Adjustments for survey non-response and calibration to the current reference year’s population totals that were applied to the main sampling weights were similarly applied to the bootstrap replicate weights to address coverage issues and mitigate the risk of bias.

Results

The provisional poverty rate for Canada was estimated at 10.9% for 2024, unchanged compared to the published national poverty rate in 2023. Table 1 presents provisional and published poverty rates by family type and age group. The provisional estimates for persons aged 65 and older suggest that there could be an increase in the poverty rate for this age group in 2024, while the rates for other age bands are expected to remain relatively unchanged. Looking at different family types, the rate for unattached individuals (i.e., persons not in an economic family) is expected to decrease, while the poverty rate for people in families is not expected to vary substantially.

Provisional and published poverty rates by province are presented on Table 2. According to these estimates, half of the provinces (5 out of 10) are projected to have higher rates for 2024 compared to the published poverty rates for 2023.

Tables 1 and 2 now feature confidence intervals for all poverty rate estimates, allowing readers to evaluate the size of the potential error due to sampling. For the provisional estimates of the number of people in poverty, please see the two tables in Appendix A.3.

Next steps

Statistics Canada will continue its work to enhance the quality and timeliness of its provisional poverty estimates. Further improvements to timeliness will be sought by evaluating whether earlier versions of the tax slip files could be used with adjustments to the current methodology. Potential improvements to the imputation strategy will also be explored and assessed. Moreover, additional analyses will be undertaken to expand the coverage of the provisional poverty estimates and include the territories.

Conclusion

This paper describes the continued work Statistics Canada is undertaking to improve the timeliness of poverty statistics. The provisional poverty rates provide researchers, policy experts and others interested in poverty with an early indication of expected changes to the official rates. It is important to note that these figures are provisional and may be revised as additional data become available. The official poverty rates will remain those released in the spring of 2026. Research and development work will continue to enhance the methodology used to produce these provisional estimates in future annual releases.

Appendix

References

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Devin, N., Dugas, E., Gustajtis, B., McDermott, S., & Mendoza Rodríguez, J. (2023). Launch of the Third Comprehensive Review of the Market Basket Measure. Income Research Paper Series. Catalogue no. 75F0002M.

Devin, N., Gustajtis, B., Kow, B., Raymond-Brousseau, L., & Steinmetz-Wood, M. (2025). The proposed methodology for the 2023-base Market Basket Measure of poverty. Income Research Paper Series. Catalogue no. 75F0002M.

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