Statistics Canada
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Labour Force Information

Not for release before 7 A.M. E.D.T. Friday October 5, 2007

September 9 to 15, 2007

71-001-X


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Analysis — September 2007

The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% in September, the first time since November 1974 that the rate has been below 6.0%. The decline in the rate occurred as employment rose by an estimated 51,000, with gains concentrated in full-time.

So far in 2007, employment has grown by 1.7% (+283,000), a rate of growth higher than that observed over the first nine months of 2006 (+1.3%).

In September, core-age workers, that is persons aged 25 to 54, experienced their first significant gain in employment (+40,000) since the start of the year.

Older workers (aged 55 and over) also showed employment strength with an increase of 23,000 in September. Employment among older people has been growing at a faster pace than that for people of core-age, with an increase of 5.6% so far this year.

Employment increased by an estimated 30,000 in Ontario, all full time. Despite this increase, employment growth in the province over the first nine months of the year (+1.2%) remains below the national average of 1.7%.

Since the beginning of the year, the number of hours worked at the national level, rose by 2.1%, a rate of increase much stronger than the 1.0% growth observed over the same period a year ago.

The largest employment increases in September were in educational services, followed by public administration; professional, scientific and technical services; and agriculture. There were declines, however, in retail trade.

Over the first nine months of the year, manufacturing employment has declined by 3.7% while there has been robust growth in a number of service industries, as well as construction and utilities.

Employees, on average, earned 4.2% more per hour in September than they did at the same time last year, while the most recent year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index was 1.7%. This is the largest estimated year-over-year increase in average hourly wages since the Labour Force Survey began collecting this information in 1997.

Employment in education rebounds from losses at end of school year

Employment in educational services jumped by an estimated 25,000 in September, bringing gains over the past couple of months to 58,000, completely offsetting declines observed earlier in the summer.

Employment in public administration rose by 22,000, mostly in local and municipal administration, with the largest gains in Ontario.

There were 18,000 more people employed in professional, scientific and technical services nationwide in September, bringing total gains from a year ago to 60,000 (+5.5%). The largest increases over this period have been in architectural, engineering and design services as well as management, scientific and technical services.

In September, employment in agriculture increased by 13,000, with the largest gains in Alberta, followed by Quebec and British Columbia.

Transportation and warehousing employment rose by 13,000 across the country in September, partly offsetting the large drop the month before, leaving the industry at about the same level as at the end of last year.

Employment in trade dropped by an estimated 28,000 in September, mostly in retail. A large proportion of this decline was experienced by youths, who are commonly employed in retail trade. Despite this loss, growth in the industry was 1.5% (+39,000) over the first nine months of the year.

Employment in utilities declined by an estimated 8,000 in September. This follows substantial growth of 26,000 since last January with the largest increase over this period occurring in Quebec.

Public-sector strength in 2007

In September, public-sector employment accounted for all of the employment increase, spurred by gains in educational services and public administration. This increase brings the growth in public-sector employment so far this year to 4.4%, while the number of private-sector employees has increased only 0.4%.

Although self-employment edged down slightly in September, it has increased by 3.9% so far in 2007.

Employment continues to boom for older workers

The strong upward trend in employment growth among workers aged 55 and over continued. An estimated 23,000 more older people were employed in September, with increases evenly distributed between men and women. Employment among the 55+ has risen by 5.6% since the beginning of this year, the fastest of all age groups, with older women (+6.6%) outpacing older men (+4.7%).

The core-aged group experienced the largest employment gain in September, up 40,000, concentrated among men. This represents the first significant employment increase for 25 to 54 year-olds since January 2007. September’s gain brings total employment growth for core-aged workers to 1.0% since the start of the year.

In September, employment among 15 to 24 year-olds edged down slightly as a decline of 31,000 youths working full time was partly offset by an increase of 20,000 working part time. This leaves overall youth employment up 1.3% since the beginning of the year.

Employment gains in Ontario and Saskatchewan

Ontario’s overall employment picture improved in September. Employment in the province increased by an estimated 30,000, the first significant gain this year, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 6.2%. This brings total growth for the province so far in the year to 1.2% (+77,000).

In September, the largest increases in employment in Ontario were in educational services as well as information, culture and recreation. There were also gains in public administration, mostly at the local, municipal and provincial levels. Some of this gain was likely the result of additional workers hired for the provincial election. Manufacturing, however, continued to slump, with 44,000 fewer workers over the first nine months of this year.

In September, the employment picture also improved in Saskatchewan, with an estimated increase of 7,000, all in the service-producing sector. This increase, however, only brings employment in the province back to the same level as at the end of 2006. September’s employment increase pushed the unemployment rate down 1.1 percentage points to 3.8%, the second lowest in the country after Alberta.

Employment growth in Alberta strongest in 2007

The strongest employment growth over the first nine months of 2007 occurred in Alberta, up 3.4%, with gains across a number of industries. The unemployment rate, at 3.6% in September, remained the lowest in the country.

New Brunswick had the second strongest employment growth (+2.5%) in the country so far this year. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.2% in September, the result of more people looking for work.

British Columbia ranks third in employment growth so far this year (+2.2%) with the largest gains in retail trade as well as construction. With no employment change in September and an increase in the number of people entering the labour force in search of work, the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%.

A number of ongoing labour disputes in British Columbia remained unsettled in September, including members of unions in 31 coastal forestry companies and municipal workers in Vancouver. Workers on strike or locked out are considered employed according to Labour Force Survey definitions. However, the number of hours lost from work due to labour disputes in the province was substantial. During the survey reference week of September 9th, there were 13,000 employees who were not at work because of labour disputes, resulting in a loss of an estimated 476,000 hours or 37.8 hours per affected employee.

Quebec’s employment growth so far this year (+2.0%) has also been above the national average, with gains in part time (+8.0%) outpacing those of full time (+0.7%). Increases for the year have been in accommodation and food services; trade as well as construction and utilities. Similar to Ontario, Quebec’s manufacturing sector employment has also declined in 2007 (-36,000). In September, the unemployment rate returned to its 33-year low of 6.9%, and the employment rate remained at its record high of 61.1% for the fourth consecutive month.

Manitoba’s employment growth so far this year at 1.9% was led by gains in professional, scientific and technical services as well as construction. The proportion of working-age Manitobans with a job reached 66.5% in September, an all-time high.

Quarterly update on Territories and Aboriginal population in the western provinces living off-reserve

The Labour Force Survey also collects labour market information about the Territories, as well as the Aboriginal population living off-reserve in the western provinces. This information is not seasonally adjusted and is produced in the form of three-month moving averages. Comparisons should only be made on a year-over-year basis.

The Territories

For the ten largest communities in Nunavut, the employment rate increased to 63.7% in September (three-month average of July, August, and September), from 59.1% one year ago.

In contrast, the employment rate in the Yukon fell from 74.9% in September 2006 to 72.3% in September 2007 (three-month average). In the Northwest Territories, there was little change in the labour market over the past year, with the employment rate at 74.7% this September.

Employment growth for Aboriginal peoples residing in Alberta

The employment rate in September (three-month average) among off-reserve Aboriginal peoples in the western provinces averaged 61.4%, down 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2006. For the non-Aboriginal population in the western provinces, the employment rate increased 0.7 percentage points over the same period to 67.6%.

Alberta, with the strongest labour market in the country, was the only province where the employment rate among off-reserve Aboriginal peoples increased, up from 65.1% in September 2006 to 65.6% in September 2007.

In contrast, between September 2006 and September 2007, the employment rate among Aboriginal peoples living off-reserve declined by 2.1 percentage points in Manitoba, by a full percentage point in British Columbia and was little changed in Saskatchewan.

Note to readers

The Labour Force Survey estimates are based on a sample, and are therefore subject to sampling variability. Estimates for smaller geographic areas or industries will have more variability. For an explanation of sampling variability of estimates, and how to use standard errors to assess this variability, consult the Data Quality section in this publication.

The 2006 Labour Force Historical Review on CD-ROM (71F0004XCB, $209) is now available.

Chart 1 Employment and unemployment indicators, Canada, seasonally adjusted
Chart 2 Employment and unemployment indicators, Canada, seasonally adjusted
Chart 3 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January, 2004=100
Chart 4 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 5 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 6 Index of employment by province, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 7 Index of employment by province, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100