Analysis

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in the 12 months to October, matching the increase in September.

Lower energy prices continued to moderate the year-over-year rise in the CPI, led by the gasoline index, which was down 17.1% in the 12 months to October.

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in seven of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in October, with the rise in the CPI led by higher prices for food. Increases in the shelter index and the household operations, furnishings and equipment index also contributed to higher consumer prices. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, recorded its 12th consecutive year-over-year decline.

Food prices were up 4.1% year over year in October, after increasing 3.5% in September. This acceleration was attributable to higher prices for food purchased from stores, which increased 4.6% year over year in October, after rising 3.9% the previous month. Prices for fresh fruit increased more in the 12 months to October (+13.0%) than in September (+8.5%). In addition, the dairy products index increased year over year in October, following a decrease the previous month. Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.7% year over year.

The index for recreation, education and reading rose 1.9% in the 12 months to October, following a 2.5% increase in September. This deceleration was partly attributable to the traveller accommodation index, which was up 4.8% year over year in October, after rising 10.8% the previous month.

The shelter index was up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in October, matching the rise in September. The natural gas index decreased 10.9% in the 12 months to October, after declining 4.4% the previous month. Conversely, property taxes rose 3.0% on a year-over-year basis, after being up 2.2% year over year since last October.

The transportation index declined 3.2% year over year in October, after decreasing 3.5% in September. This smaller year-over-year decline was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 2.0% on a month-over-month basis in October, a smaller monthly decrease than the index recorded in the same month last year.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in nine provinces in the 12 months to October. Manitoba posted the largest increase, followed by Saskatchewan and Alberta. The CPI in Prince Edward Island registered its 11th consecutive year-over-year decline.

The CPI in Manitoba rose 1.9% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 1.3% in September. Gasoline prices declined less on a year-over-year basis in October (-10.4%) than in September (-18.2%). The children’s clothing index was up 7.5% in the 12 months to October, after decreasing 2.1% in September.

In Prince Edward Island, the CPI was down 0.8% year over year in October, matching the decrease in September. The fuel oil index posted a smaller year-over-year decrease in October (-21.9%) than in September (-31.3%). In contrast, the clothing index and the personal care supplies and equipment index decreased more on a year-over-year basis in October than the previous month.

Nova Scotia’s CPI increased 0.3% in the 12 months to October, after posting no change in September. This acceleration was mainly attributable to the fuel oil index, which was down less on a year-over-year basis in October (-22.4%) than the previous month (-26.8%). In addition, the furniture index was down 1.7% year over year in October, compared with a 9.4% decline in September.

Quebec was the lone province to record a smaller year-over-year increase in its CPI in October (+0.7%) than in September (+1.0%). Prices for footwear in the province declined 2.4% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 5.5% the previous month. In addition, the purchase of passenger vehicles index posted a smaller year-over-year increase in October (+0.5%) than in September (+1.2%).

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in October, following a 0.2% decrease in September.

In October, four of the eight major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, three indexes posted no change, while the recreation, education and reading index declined.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the largest increase in October was recorded in the food index (+0.5%), followed by the shelter index (+0.3%).

Non-seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.1% in October, after declining 0.2% in September.

Consumer prices were up in eight provinces on a monthly basis in October. Manitoba and Saskatchewan each posted an increase of 0.5%, the largest monthly increase among the provinces. British Columbia was the sole province to post a decrease in October (-0.3%), while there was no change in Prince Edward Island.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index was up 2.1% in the 12 months to October, matching the increase in September.

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the core index rose 0.3% in October, after increasing 0.2% the previous month.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, after increasing 0.1% in September.

Note to readers

The special aggregate "energy" comprises electricity, natural gas, fuel oil and other fuels, gasoline, and fuel, parts and accessories for recreational vehicles.

A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Users employing Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.

The Bank of Canada's core index excludes eight of the CPI's most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers' supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components.

Data on inter-city indexes of price differentials of consumer goods and services, appearing in Table 15, have been updated to October 2014.

As part of a periodic review and update of index methodologies for various components of the CPI, an improved methodology for the Internet access services index will be implemented with the November 2015 reference month CPI (published on December 18, 2015). For more information, refer to Changes of the Internet Access Services Index of the Consumer Price Index.

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