Analysis

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 2.0% in September.

12-month change in the major components

Prices increased in all major components in the 12 months to October. Higher prices for shelter and food led the rise in the CPI. At the same time, larger year-over-year price increases for transportation and for clothing and footwear contributed the most to the acceleration in the CPI.

Shelter costs rose 2.8% in the 12 months to October, led by a 20.1% gain in natural gas prices. Consumers also paid more for electricity, homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance, and rent in October compared with the same month in 2013. Property taxes rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, while mortgage interest cost declined 0.2%.

Food prices were up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis in October. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 3.1%, led by meat prices, which increased 12.4% in the 12 months to October. The most recent data from the Industrial Product Price Index indicate that, as of September 2014, producer prices for meat products were up 14.5% year over year. Food purchased from restaurants cost 2.2% more in October compared with the same month a year earlier.

The transportation index increased 1.1% in the 12 months to October, after rising 0.5% in September. Despite posting four consecutive monthly decreases, gasoline prices were up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis in October, after falling 0.5% in September. Gasoline prices recorded a smaller monthly decline this October (-4.0%) compared with October 2013 (-5.1%). On a year-over-year basis, consumers also paid more for air transportation and for the purchase of passenger vehicles.

Prices for clothing and footwear advanced 3.1% year over year in October, after rising 2.0% the previous month. Fewer discounts were observed this October compared with the same month a year earlier.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in all provinces in the 12 months to October, with Alberta posting the largest gain. Conversely, British Columbia recorded the smallest year-over-year increase.

In Alberta, consumer prices rose 3.0% in the 12 months to October. Natural gas prices rose 30.7% on a year-over-year basis, the largest increase among the provinces. In addition, compared with Canada as a whole, Alberta posted larger increases in the indexes for homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance and for gasoline.

Consumer prices in British Columbia rose 1.1% in October compared with the same month a year earlier. Clothing prices fell on a year-over-year basis in the province, while they rose at the national level.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in October, following a 0.2% rise in September.

Of the eight major components, seven increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in October. The seasonally adjusted index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (+0.5%) posted the largest monthly rise in October.

The clothing and footwear index rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. Before seasonal adjustment, prices for clothing and footwear increased 1.4%, as October typically marks the introduction of fall and winter apparel.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the health and personal care index was the only major component to decline in October.

Non-seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the CPI increased 0.1% in October, matching the rise in September.

Consumers paid 2.0% more for the purchase of passenger vehicles in October compared with September, while they paid less for gasoline.

Consumer prices rose in five provinces on a monthly basis in October, with Saskatchewan (+0.5%) recording the largest increase. Meanwhile, consumer prices declined the most in British Columbia (-0.4%).

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 2.3% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 2.1% in September.

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the core index advanced 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% rise in September.

The seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, matching the gains in September and August.

Note to readers

A video providing an overview of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is available on Statistics Canada’s YouTube channel.

A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Users employing CPI data for indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.

The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the CPI’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components.

Table 15 has been updated to October 2013.

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