| National Index Highlights |
Twelve-month percentage change in the CPI:
+0.7%
Twelve-month percentage
change in the CPI excluding energy: +2.1%
Continued declines in energy prices tempered the rise in
the Consumer Price Index (CPI), limiting the increase to 0.7% between November
2000 and November 2001, the smallest 12-month advance since February 1999. With
the exception of August 2001, price increases have been steadily slowing since
their recent peak of 3.9% in May. If energy prices were excluded, the CPI would
have risen by 2.1% for the 12 months ending in November, the lowest rate this
year. As shown in graph 5, the All-items excluding energy index has
been reflecting price stability since July 2001.
Energy prices, which dropped by 12.5% compared to November
2000, provided the bulk of the downward pressure on the All-Items index. With
the exception of electricity, prices for all components of the energy index
fell substantially, bringing about the largest 12-month decline in the index
since January 1987. A 19.3% drop in gasoline prices and a 15.5% fall in natural
gas prices were central to this decline.
In contrast to energy prices, food prices were the primary
source of upward pressure on the index in November. Food prices rose by 3.9%
between November 2000 and November 2001, as restaurant meal and beef prices
continued to play a dominant role. Despite
the impact of food prices on the All-Items CPI, November's increase
represented a slowdown over the previous nine months, when the 12-month rate
ranged between 4.1% and 5.2%.
Higher prices for
cigarettes, rent and homeowners’ replacement cost were also important
contributors to November's 12-month increase. These effects were tempered by
lower prices for automotive vehicle purchases and traveller accommodation.
Monthly percentage change in the CPI: -0.9%
On
the heels of October's 0.5% decrease, the All-Items CPI dropped a further 0.9%
in November, the largest monthly decline since June 1959. The downward pressure
on the CPI stemmed mostly from weaker prices for gasoline, natural gas and
traveller accommodation. This was somewhat offset by higher cigarette prices.
Gasoline
prices tumbled a further 10.0% between October and November, partly the result
of weak global demand. The threat of a price war by OPEC if key non-OPEC
countries do not co-operate in the reduction of crude oil production also put
downward pressure on gasoline prices. Monthly declines of this magnitude were
last witnessed in 1986. Combined with previous declines, gasoline prices
tumbled 19.3% between November 2000 and November 2001, the largest 12-month
drop since December 1986.
Natural gas prices shrank 22.4% between October and
November, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. While residents of most
provinces saw their natural gas prices fall, a credit received by Alberta
customers was largely responsible for pushing down the index. For the first
time in over three years, natural gas prices stood below their level of a year
earlier (-15.5%).
Between October and November 2001, traveller accommodation
prices fell a further 9.8%. Promotions were put in place and rates were dropped
in order to attract customers during this seasonal low point. The impact of
non-seasonal factors such as the events of Sept. 11 and the effects of an
economic slowdown are evident through the 12-month percentage changes. Prices
were 7.5% lower than in November 2000, the sixth consecutive 12-month decrease.
The
introduction of a federal tax increase on cigarettes pushed up prices across
the country. Some provinces also implemented their own tax hikes, resulting in
monthly increases ranging from 2.0% in Newfoundland and Manitoba to a high of 12.3% in
Québec. Altogether, cigarette prices for Canada rose by 8.2% between
October and November 2001 and by 24.7% compared to November 2000.
The seasonally adjusted CPI decreased by 0.6% between October 2001 and
November 2001
After
removing seasonal influences, the All-items CPI decreased by 0.6% between
October and November 2001. The contributors to the fall in November’s
seasonally adjusted index were declines in the indexes for Transportation
(-2.4%), Shelter (-1.1%) and Health and personal care (-0.2%). Partly
offsetting these decreases were increases in the seasonally adjusted indexes for
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (+4.3%) and Recreation, education and
reading (+0.6%). The seasonally adjusted Clothing, Household operations and
furnishings, and Food components remained unchanged.
Special Aggregates
Energy
In
November 2001, energy prices were considerably lower than a year earlier as
they fell by 12.5%. Although this decrease was attributable to price declines
for all components except electricity, the bulk of the decrease stemmed from
gasoline prices, which dropped by 19.3%.
Energy
prices tumbled 8.8% between October and November 2001, their largest monthly
decline on record. A 10.0% drop in gasoline prices coupled with a 22.4 % tumble
in natural gas prices were the driving force behind this record decline.
Goods and Services
Between November 2000 and November 2001, prices for the
goods sector fell by 0.9%, reflecting widespread declines. The largest impact
stemmed from the durable goods index (-2.0%), which was pushed down by the
lower cost of automotive vehicle purchases. Prices for non-durable goods
slipped by 0.6% from their November 2000 level, as lower gasoline and natural
gas prices were partly offset by higher cigarette prices. The decline for the
semi-durable goods category was less pronounced (-0.3%), as higher prices for
newspapers partly offset declines in some clothing categories.
While most of the downward price pressure was concentrated
in the goods sector, prices in the services sector remained more robust.
Widespread increases left the services index 2.2% higher than in November 2000.
As a group, prices for the goods category fell by 1.5% in
November compared to October 2001. The non-durable goods index lost the most
ground, dropping by 1.9%, reflecting lower gasoline and natural gas prices.
Higher cigarette prices partly offset these declines. Prices
in the semi-durable category dropped by 1.8% between October and November 2001,
reflecting widespread price declines in the men's and women's clothing
categories. The durable goods index fell by 0.2%, as lower prices for
tools and other household equipment were partially offset by price increases
for automotive vehicle parts and supplies.
On
a monthly basis, the cost of services edged down by 0.3%, primarily due to
lower prices for traveller accommodation.
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