Economic and Social Reports
Early career economic outcomes of childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons in Canada

Abstract

This study compares the employment income trajectories of childhood immigrants (persons admitted to Canada at the age of 17 or younger) who became certified journeypersons through apprenticeship completion or trade qualifiers from 2008 to 2018 with the trajectories of their Canadian-born counterparts. Administrative data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database, the Registered Apprenticeship Information System and the T1 Family File were used to examine annual employment incomes at five time points: four and two years before certification, the year of certification, and two and four years after certification. Descriptive statistics show that childhood immigrants had lower incomes at all time points. The gap widened from approximately $4,700 four years before certification to about $8,500 in the year of certification, before narrowing modestly to roughly $7,800 four years after certification. Trade-level analyses revealed substantial heterogeneity, with higher incomes observed for Canadian-born workers in several industrial and mechanical trades (e.g., heavy-duty equipment mechanics; construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers; and heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics). In contrast, median incomes were higher for childhood immigrants in selected construction trades (e.g., cabinetmakers, carpenters, painters and decorators, and roofers and shinglers). After accounting for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics, multivariate analyses show that childhood immigrants earned approximately 9% less four years before certification than Canadian-born journeypersons and about 6% to 7% less at subsequent time points. Multivariate analyses of income progression indicate that childhood immigrants had slightly lower earnings growth two years after certification relative to Canadian-born journeypersons; however, this difference was small and not statistically significant four years after certification. This study may inform policies aimed at supporting skilled trades training pathways, labour mobility and earnings equity with respect to population groups that may encounter challenges in accessing and advancing within the trades.

Keywords: childhood immigrants, journeypersons, trades, labour market, employment income

Authors

Allison Leanage is with the Health Analysis and Modelling Division and Max Stick is with the Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Tahsin Mehdi, Hyeongsuk Jin, Feng Hou, Emily Jovic, Rubab Arim and Graham Ziegler from Statistics Canada for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. Thank you to Tomasz Handler for providing support for additional analyses using Postsecondary Student Information System data.

Introduction

From 1980 to 2023, more than 2 million immigrants arrived in Canada before the age of 18 (henceforth, “childhood immigrants”), representing approximately 20% of the immigrant population (Statistics Canada, 2025a). Many childhood immigrants make considerable contributions to Canadian society and the economy over time, particularly through their educational attainment and labour market participation (Statistics Canada, 2021a). A substantial body of research indicates that childhood immigrants often surpass their Canadian-born counterparts in educational attainment and achieve comparable labour market outcomes overall (Abada et al., 2009; Boyd, 2009; Chen & Hou, 2019; Childs et al., 2017; Finnie & Mueller, 2010; Hou & Bonikowska, 2016; Picot & Hou, 2011, 2013; Picot et al., 2023; Turcotte, 2019). However, they were more likely to pursue university pathways than trade or college-based training (Picot et al., 2023).

In recent years, the Government of Canada has emphasized the importance of expanding career opportunities in the skilled trades (Prime Minister of Canada, 2025), a sector that supports key areas of the economy, such as construction, manufacturing and infrastructure development. While increased admissions of immigrants with skilled trades backgrounds occurred primarily in the late 2000s and early 2010s (Hou et al.,, 2021), demand for tradespeople has remained high, driven by workforce aging and, in turn, higher retirement rates. As a result, the federal government continues to promote apprenticeship training and participation in the skilled trades as part of its broader workforce development strategy (Government of Canada, 2025a).

Although research examining the labour market outcomes of immigrants in the skilled trades is emerging (Jin & Kopp, 2023; Paul et al., 2026), little is known about apprenticeship certification and earnings among immigrants who were admitted to Canada as children (before the age of 18 years), with recent exceptions (Leanage, 2026; Picot et al., 2023). Examining the economic outcomes of those employed in the skilled trades is vital for understanding workforce recruitment challenges and sustaining economic growth, especially given Canada’s housing crisis (Statistics Canada, 2022a; Government of Canada, 2024b).

There are two primary pathways to becoming a certified journeyperson in the skilled trades in Canada (Jin & Kopp, 2023). The first involves completing a formal apprenticeship program, which combines on-the-job training with technical instruction. The second pathway allows individuals to obtain certification by taking the qualification exam without completing a formal apprenticeship. These individuals are referred to as trade qualifiers.

Regional trends further underscore the importance of examining economic outcomes in the trades over time. Previous research indicates that completing an apprenticeship program can yield earnings comparable to a bachelor’s degree for men in British Columbia (Statistics Canada, 2017). For instance, two years after certification, journeypersons can earn higher median incomes than undergraduate degree holders ($59,000 versus $50,900); however, bachelor’s degree holders experience stronger long-term income growth—approximately 25% over five years compared with about 15% among the trades—and typically surpass journeypersons in median earnings over time (Zeman, 2023). In 2023, the median employment income of newly certified journeypersons reached $58,090 one year after certification, which was the highest median income and year-over-year growth since 2008 (Statistics Canada, 2026). Similar findings were seen in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2023a).

In this context, examining the labour market outcomes of childhood immigrants in skilled trades is essential for assessing their labour market experiences and for identifying potential barriers to progression, including earnings inequalities that would be captured over time. Because childhood immigrants typically complete their early education (kindergarten to Grade 12) within the Canadian education system, their labour market experiences may differ from those of adult immigrants. Specifically, childhood immigrants may be less likely to face challenges related to foreign credential recognition, as they are more likely than adult immigrants to have completed secondary school in Canada,^Note  and may have fewer language barriers, greater awareness of Canadian systems and stronger networks. Consequently, comparing childhood immigrants with Canadian-born apprentices can help reveal whether differences in earnings and career progression persist, independent of issues such as credential recognition that sometimes affect adult immigrants. Canadian immigration policy has primarily emphasized adult admissions in response to labour market needs associated with population aging and workforce demand (Government of Canada, 2025b). At the same time, recent demographic trends and changes to immigration planning levels have increased interest in the long-term labour market integration of individuals who arrived in Canada as children (Government of Canada, 2024b). By focusing on childhood immigrants, this study provides new evidence on how integration into the skilled trades unfolds over time and reveals distinct earnings trajectories relative to Canadian-born journeypersons. These findings may be used to inform research and policy discussions related to apprenticeship and skilled trades pathways, labour market integration, workforce inclusion, and earnings inequality.

Apprenticeship training in Canada is often perceived as “lower in status” than university education (Lehmann et al., 2014). However, less is known about childhood immigrant pathways in becoming journeypersons and subsequent economic trajectories. Previous work by Leanage (2026) has begun to address this knowledge gap. It found that childhood immigrants represented 4% to 5% of registered apprentices but were less likely to obtain certification and become journeypersons than their Canadian-born counterparts. This was the case both before and after accounting for sociodemographic, employment and trade-related characteristics. The analysis further identified immigrant-specific factors—such as age at arrival (those arriving as adolescents) and parental admission category (families admitted under family sponsorship or refugee programs)—associated with a lower likelihood of certification. 

While earlier work by Leanage (2026) highlights disparities in certification, certification represents only one stage of childhood immigrants’ integration into skilled trades careers. Less is known about how childhood immigrants fare economically as they transition to journeyperson status and whether income disparities emerge, narrow or persist over time. Building on this research, the present study extends the literature on childhood immigrant integration in the labour market by examining longitudinal employment income throughout the transition to journeyperson status among childhood immigrants, compared with Canadian-born journeypersons. Using integrated administrative data, the study assesses earnings four and two years before certification, the year of certification, and two and four years after certification to examine differences in income levels and trajectories over time. It addresses two research questions:

1. How do median employment incomes before, at and after certification^Note  compare between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons? Do any differences persist after accounting for sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics?
2. How do individual earnings progressions compare between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons? Do any differences persist after accounting for sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics?

This longitudinal analysis identifies when income disparities between groups arise and whether these differences decrease, remain stable or grow as individuals transition to journeyperson status. By focusing on childhood immigrants, the study provides insights into how their integration into the skilled trades unfolds over time, highlighting distinct earnings patterns compared with Canadian-born journeypersons. The findings contribute valuable information for researchers and policy makers interested in apprenticeship and skilled trades pathways, labour market integration, workforce inclusion, and earnings inequality.

Data

The Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP) is a secure data environment that integrates longitudinal administrative data. This study used data from the 2023 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) integrated with the 2023 Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) and tax information from the T1 Family File (T1FF). These datasets within the ELMLP environment allow researchers to examine past cohorts of students and apprentices to better understand their career trajectories over time (e.g., labour market outcomes such as employment income and interprovincial mobility).

The IMDB is an administrative database combining landing records (1980 to 2023) and T1 tax records (1980 to 2022) of immigrants. The main IMDB data files contain limited economic information on immigrant children given that the propensity to file taxes is lower among children in general. To partially address this gap, the 2023 IMDB Children Data module was developed, allowing researchers to examine how childhood socioeconomic conditions (specifically for children aged 17 or younger at the time of admission) affect economic outcomes later in life (Statistics Canada, 2024). For this analysis, the sample was restricted to children aged 17 or younger at the time of admission.^Note 

The 2023 RAIS is an administrative dataset containing annual information on registered apprentices in Canada from 2008 to 2023.^Note  It provides information on apprentices who received training and obtained certification^Note  in a trade,^Note  as well as information on personal characteristics (e.g., sex,^Note  age and immigrant status). This study examines individuals who became certified from 2008 to 2018 in both apprenticeship and trade qualifier pathways, comparing their median employment incomes at five key stages relative to certification: (1) four years before certification, (2) two years before certification, (3) the year of certification, (4) two years after certification and (5) four years after certification.^Note  The trades of journeypersons were classified using five-digit 2021 National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes to identify the trade in which individuals were certified.^Note  While these codes capture the certified trade, they do not necessarily reflect the occupations from which employment earnings were derived at each time point. Analysis was further restricted to 19 trades in which certification was available across all provinces and territories to ensure consistency across jurisdictions, according to the Ellis Chart (Employment and Social Development Canada, 2025). Journeypersons were grouped into six regions: Atlantic, Prairies, Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and the territories.

Employment information was obtained by integrating the RAIS with the T1FF.^Note  Employment income was calculated as the sum of annual earnings reported on T4 slips, self-employment income, other employment income and Indian exempt employment income. Estimates include only individuals who filed taxes in all five corresponding tax years; individuals with missing income information at any time point were excluded (Statistics Canada, 2023b).^{Note  Note} 

Following previous research emphasizing the role of working conditions during apprenticeship training—such as wages and access to employment-related benefits—in shaping apprenticeship outcomes (Jin et al., 2020), the analysis incorporates several employment-related characteristics. Union membership and workplace pension plan participation were coded as binary indicators at each time point—four and two years before certification, the year of certification, and two and four years after certification—based on any positive contribution amount in the corresponding year. Labour market attachment was measured by the number of industries in which individuals worked during the registration year, categorized as no industry reported, one industry, two industries, or three or more industries, based on employers’ three-digit North American Industry Classification System codes.

To capture the longitudinal employment income outcomes of journeypersons, this study follows the standards outlined by Statistics Canada (2023b), the Canadian Apprenticeship Longitudinal Indicators public dashboard (Statistics Canada, 2025c) and other outputs (see Statistics Canada [2021b, 2025c]). While this study does not measure interprovincial mobility^Note  using the same time intervals as those in the dashboard (one and three years after certification), the same conceptual definition was applied to examine mobility two and four years after certification.

Methods

The study compares two groups of journeypersons: childhood immigrants and Canadian-born individuals. The results are presented in several stages. First, descriptive statistics summarizing sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics are shown in Table 1.^Note  Overall differences in median employment income between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons were then examined across the certification trajectory—two and four years before certification, the year of certification, and two and four years after certification—in Chart 1, followed by a trade-specific median employment income comparison in Table 2.^Note  The progression of median employment income two and four years after certification is presented by immigrant status in Chart 2 and by trade in Table 3. Chart 3 reports interprovincial mobility rates among childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons following certification. Multivariate analyses are shown in Table 4,^Note Note  which reports ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models estimating differences in log annual earnings^Note  between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons across the five time points relative to certification. These models estimate log annual earnings accounting for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics. Finally, Table 5 presents OLS regression models examining income changes two and four years after certification by childhood immigrant status before and after accounting for covariates.

Data table for Chart 1

Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 Four years before certification , Two years before certification, Certification year, Two years after certification and Four years after certification , calculated using dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Four years before certification	Two years before certification	Certification year	Two years after certification	Four years after certification
	dollars
Sources: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Immigration Database and Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform, 2023.
Overall	37,600	49,700	61,700	73,400	75,700
Childhood immigrants	33,000	43,100	53,400	65,200	68,100
Canadian-born individuals	37,700	49,900	62,000	73,600	75,900

Data table for Chart 2

Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
The information is grouped by Years after certification (appearing as row headers), Two years and Four years, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Years after certification	Two years	Four years
	percent
Sources: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Immigration Database and Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform, 2023.
Overall	18.9	22.7
Childhood immigrants	22.1	27.6
Canadian-born individuals	18.8	22.5

Data table for Chart 3

Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 Two years after certification and Four years after certification, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Two years after certification	Four years after certification
	percent
Sources: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Immigration Database and Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform, 2023.
Overall	4.8	5.6
Childhood immigrants	3.2	4.0
Canadian-born individuals	4.9	5.6

Results

Tables 1a and 1b present the characteristics of journeypersons aged 18 to 54 who became certified from 2008 to 2018 by immigrant status. Among certified journeypersons, 3% were childhood immigrants, and the remaining 97% were born in Canada.

There were some notable sociodemographic differences between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons. Women comprised a larger share of childhood immigrant journeypersons (14%) than of Canadian-born journeypersons (10%). Childhood immigrants were also more likely to be married at the time of certification (52% versus 45%). In terms of geographic distribution, childhood immigrants were more likely to be residing in Ontario (47%) and British Columbia (20%), whereas Canadian-born journeypersons were more likely to be distributed across other regions, with larger shares in Quebec (22%) and Atlantic Canada (7%).

There were also some notable differences in program characteristics. Among journeypersons, childhood immigrants were less likely than Canadian-born individuals to have received credits for pre-registration training (58% versus 65%). Program duration varied across both groups, with childhood immigrants more likely to complete two-year programs (16% versus 10%) and less likely to complete three-year programs (12% versus 23%), while completion of four- and five-year programs was similar between groups. Childhood immigrants were more likely to be in several service and automotive-related trades, including automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers (26% versus 11%); hairstylists and barbers (14% versus 8%); and cooks (7% versus 4%). In contrast, Canadian-born journeypersons were more concentrated in construction and industrial trades such as carpenters (15% versus 5%), welders and related machine operators (7% versus 4%), construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (6% versus 3%), and heavy-duty equipment mechanics (5% versus 3%).

Differences were also evident in employment characteristics between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons. Childhood immigrants were less likely to be in unionized jobs (33% versus 46%) and substantially less likely to have a workplace pension plan (16% versus 30%).^Note  Patterns of labour market attachment were broadly similar, although childhood immigrants were slightly more likely to report no industry attachment in the registration year (12% versus 8%). Interprovincial mobility was uncommon for both groups, although marginally lower among childhood immigrants (4% versus 6%).

Chart 1 presents median employment income for childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons at four and two years before certification, the year of certification, and two and four years after certification. At every stage, childhood immigrants had lower median employment incomes than their Canadian-born counterparts. Before certification, the gap between the two groups widened steadily—from approximately $4,700 four years before certification to about $6,800 two years prior—reaching a peak difference of roughly $8,500 in the year of certification. Although the difference decreased somewhat after certification, childhood immigrants continued to earn less, on average, than their Canadian-born counterparts at all five time points, with the largest gap observed in the year of certification.

Table 2 presents the same information as Chart 1 but disaggregated by certified trade and reported median income. However, the certified trade may not necessarily reflect individuals’ occupation at each observed time point.^Note  Across the five points, income trajectories varied considerably by trade, revealing distinct patterns between Canadian-born and childhood immigrant journeypersons. In several trades—including automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers; heavy-duty equipment mechanics; construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; and heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics—Canadian-born individuals consistently had higher median employment incomes than childhood immigrants. The largest and most persistent gap was observed among heavy-duty equipment mechanics, where Canadian-born journeypersons earned approximately $6,700 to $10,500 more than childhood immigrants across all time points. In contrast, childhood immigrants consistently had higher median employment incomes in other trades, including cabinetmakers, carpenters, painters and decorators (except interior decorators), roofers and shinglers, and welders and related machine operators, with income advantages observed before and after certification. The largest median employment income gaps for childhood immigrants were observed among roofers and shinglers (approximately $2,000 to $11,000) and cabinetmakers (about $2,200 to $9,800), followed by welders and related machine operators (roughly $4,800 to $9,900). These results are important, as the aggregate income gap observed in Chart 1 masks considerable trade-level heterogeneity, highlighting that income disparities are driven by specific trades rather than reflecting uniform differences.

Chart 2 shows the progression of median employment income^Note  for childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons two and four years after certification. Two years after certification, median employment income growth was 17% for childhood immigrants, compared with 15% for Canadian-born individuals. Four years after certification, median employment income growth was 21% for childhood immigrants and 19% for Canadian-born individuals. Median employment income growth was modestly higher among childhood immigrants in both post-certification periods. However, as shown in Table 2, these results vary by immigrant status and trade.

Table 3 presents the same information as Chart 2 but disaggregated by certified trade and reported median income progression. The progression of median employment income generally increased across most trades following certification. An exception was observed among hairstylists and barbers, where childhood immigrants experienced negative income progression at both time points, while Canadian-born journeypersons experienced modest growth two years after certification, followed by a slight decline four years after certification. Post-certification income progression varied substantially by trade and immigrant status. In several trades, childhood immigrants experienced stronger employment income growth than Canadian-born individuals two and four years after certification. These included automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers; cabinetmakers; carpenters; electricians (except industrial and power system); cooks; construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; insulators; heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics; and steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers. The largest differences in median employment income progression between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons were observed among insulators; cabinetmakers; and automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers. In these trades, childhood immigrants showed gains that were approximately 7% to 8% higher two years after certification and 10% to 15% higher four years after certification. In contrast, Canadian-born journeypersons experienced greater median employment income progression in trades such as auto body collision, refinishing and glass technicians and damage repair estimators; sheet metal workers; painters and decorators (except interior decorators); plumbers; and welders and related machine operators. The widest gaps were observed among painters and decorators (except interior decorators), plumbers, and welders and related machine operators, ranging from approximately 3% to 4% two years after certification and from approximately 1% to 3% four years after certification.

Some trades showed different patterns of income growth after certification depending on whether journeypersons were childhood immigrants or Canadian-born individuals. For example, among roofers and shinglers, and among steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers, childhood immigrants initially experienced higher income growth two years after certification, but Canadian-born journeypersons saw relatively stronger income growth four years after certification. Similar patterns were observed among glaziers, and among auto body collision, refinishing and glass technicians and damage repair estimators,^Note  where the relative income growth advantage changed from Canadian-born to childhood immigrant journeypersons between the two- and four-year post-certification periods. This shift suggests that early post-certification employment income gains did not persist uniformly over time in certain trades.

Overall, these results indicate that post-certification income progression is highly trade-specific and dynamic over time. While aggregate trends suggest differences in income growth by immigrant status (see Chart 2), the direction and magnitude of these differences vary across trades and time after certification, underscoring the importance of trade-level analyses when examining earnings trajectories among journeypersons.

Chart 3 presents the proportion of journeypersons who moved to another province or territory following certification. Among all journeypersons, approximately 5% moved to another province or territory two years after certification.^Note  This interprovincial mobility rate increased to about 6% four years after certification. Interprovincial mobility was more prevalent among Canadian-born individuals than childhood immigrants. Around 5% of Canadian-born journeypersons moved to another province or territory two years following certification, with this rate increasing to approximately 6% four years after certification. The interprovincial mobility rates two and four years after certification for childhood immigrant journeypersons were roughly 3% and 4%, respectively.

Table 4 presents OLS regression estimates of annual earnings among journeypersons who became certified from 2008 to 2018.^Note Note  In baseline models accounting only for the certification year (Model 1 columns), childhood immigrants earned significantly less than Canadian-born individuals across most time points in the certification trajectory. Four years before certification, childhood immigrants earned about 18% less than their Canadian-born counterparts. This gap remained similar two years before certification (17% lower earnings) and the year of certification (16% lower earnings). Although the earnings difference narrowed following certification, childhood immigrants continued to earn significantly less two years after certification (15% lower earnings). By four years after certification, the estimated earnings gap had decreased to about 13%, and the difference was no longer statistically significant.

In the models that accounted for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics (Model 2 columns),^{Note Note Note}  the earnings differences between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons were reduced but remained evident across the certification trajectory. Relative to Canadian-born individuals, childhood immigrants earned approximately 9% less four years before certification, 6% less two years before certification, 6% less in the year of certification, 7% less two years after certification and 6% less four years after certification. These results indicate a persistent earnings disadvantage for childhood immigrants throughout the certification pathway, even after accounting for observable differences in characteristics.

Several other factors were strongly associated with earnings outcomes across the certification trajectory. Controlling for other characteristics, female journeypersons earned approximately 20% to 28% less than male journeypersons across the different time points, indicating persistent sex differences within the trades. Age effects were evident in the pre-certification and certification periods but were no longer statistically significant in the post-certification period.

Substantial trade-based earnings stratification was evident relative to electricians (except industrial and power system), the reference trade. Journeypersons in several service and selected construction trades—including cooks, hairstylists and barbers, painters and decorators (except interior decorators), and roofers and shinglers—earned considerably less across the certification trajectory.^Note  For example, cooks earned approximately 29% to 36% less than electricians (except industrial and power system), while hairstylists and barbers earned about 48% to 56% less. Similarly, painters and decorators (except interior decorators) earned roughly 19% to 22% less, and roofers and shinglers earned about 7% to 23% less. In contrast, workers in industrial and mechanical trades had higher earnings. Heavy-duty equipment mechanics earned approximately 26% to 36% more than electricians (except industrial and power system), while construction millwrights and industrial mechanics earned about 20% to 32% more. Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics also earned more, with earnings approximately 9% to 18% higher than those of electricians (except industrial and power system).

Employment characteristics were also strongly associated with earnings outcomes.^Note  Union membership was consistently linked to higher earnings across the certification trajectory. After accounting for other characteristics, journeypersons with union membership earned approximately 19% to 22% more than their counterparts without union membership. Similarly, working across multiple industries in the registration year was associated with substantially higher earnings. Relative to journeypersons reporting no industry attachment in the registration year, those working in one industry earned approximately 100% to 207% more, those working in two industries earned about 89% to 198% more, and those working in three or more industries earned roughly 88% to 189% more. In addition, having a registered pension plan was positively associated with earnings, with journeypersons covered by a workplace pension plan earning approximately 15% to 22% more than those without pension coverage.

Overall, the results indicate that childhood immigrant journeypersons experience consistently lower earnings before, at and after certification, compared with Canadian-born journeypersons. Although the magnitude of these differences decreases once sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics are accounted for, an earnings gap remains throughout the certification trajectory. After adjustment, childhood immigrant journeypersons earned approximately 6% to 9% less than Canadian-born journeypersons across the different stages relative to certification, indicating a persistent earnings difference.

Further analyses (not shown) indicate that about one-third (roughly 28% to 38%) of the overall difference in annual earnings between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons is explained by observed sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics. Among these, regional differences reduce the gap by roughly 25% to 30%, while registered pension plan participation explains about 13% to 18% of the gap, union coverage about 13% to 16%, trade composition about 9% to 12% and sex about 10% to 12%.

Table 5 presents results from a regression model where the outcome is the change in earnings two and four years after certification relative to the year of certification.^Note  This specification captures post-certification income progression by comparing earnings in the post-certification period with earnings in the certification year. Covariates were measured in the certification year to account for baseline sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics.

After accounting for these characteristics, childhood immigrant journeypersons experienced slightly slower income growth two years after certification, with earnings growth approximately 1% lower than that of Canadian-born journeypersons, relative to the certification year. However, no statistically significant differences in income growth were observed four years after certification, suggesting that the short-term difference in earnings progression between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons does not persist over time. Taken with the results in Table 4, these findings suggest that although childhood immigrant journeypersons have lower earnings levels before, at and after certification, their post-certification earnings growth follows a similar trajectory to that of Canadian-born journeypersons.

Conclusion

This study contributes to better understanding how childhood immigrants integrate into skilled trades pathways by examining their employment income before, at and after certification. Bivariate results indicate that among journeypersons, childhood immigrants consistently had lower median employment incomes than their Canadian-born counterparts at multiple stages relative to the certification year. Multivariate analyses further show that, after accounting for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics, childhood immigrants continued to have significantly lower earnings than Canadian-born individuals. Additionally, regression results indicate a small difference in income progression two years after certification, with childhood immigrants experiencing slightly lower earnings growth than Canadian-born individuals. However, this difference was no longer statistically significant four years after certification, indicating similar longer-term income progression for both groups.

Trade-level analyses show that aggregate differences mask substantial heterogeneity across occupations. Among journeypersons in several industrial and mechanical trades—such as heavy-duty equipment mechanics; construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; and heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics—Canadian-born individuals consistently had higher median incomes than childhood immigrants. In contrast, childhood immigrants had comparable or higher median incomes in selected construction trades, including cabinetmakers, carpenters, painters and decorators (except interior decorators), and roofers and shinglers. Post-certification income growth also varied by trade and immigrant status, with childhood immigrants experiencing stronger income growth in some trades and Canadian-born individuals experiencing stronger growth in others. Even after accounting for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics, childhood immigrants had significantly lower earnings than their Canadian-born counterparts before, at and after certification. Institutional and employment factors were strongly associated with income: union membership and workplace pension plan coverage were each linked to substantially higher annual earnings.

One possible explanation for these differences across trades is the level of demand. Research indicates that when occupations are in high demand, employers have less flexibility in decisions regarding hiring and pay (Grodsky & Pager, 2001; Lu & Hou, 2020). Put differently, in trades where workers are in high demand, differences in pay between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons may be smaller than in trades with a large supply of workers. For instance, in the growing field of data science, where entry requirements are relatively high and workers are in high demand, only a minimal gap in earnings is seen between immigrants who have been in Canada two to five years and the Canadian-born population (Stick et al., 2025).

This study had some limitations. The analysis was restricted to individuals with complete tax records across all observation periods, and this may exclude those with intermittent labour market attachment. Postsecondary participation was excluded from the main models because the majority of journeypersons were not enrolled in postsecondary education, and the small proportion who were enrolled were concentrated in trade-related programs, offering limited explanatory variation beyond apprenticeship training itself. Sample size constraints also limit full disaggregation by sex across trades and time points, and this is important given the persistent male dominance in the trades examined in this study (Leanage & Mehdi, 2026). However, a complementary multivariate analysis examining overall sex differences in earnings outcomes among journeypersons is presented in the recently released study by Leanage and Stick (2026). Another limitation was the reliance on median income levels and annual earnings measures, as well as the absence of information on job-level characteristics, including occupation, full- or part-time status, and whether individuals worked for the full year or part of the year, and firm-level characteristics, such as workplace practices, informal hiring networks, and access to overtime or higher-paying assignments. This may limit the ability to fully explain observed income differences.

Future research could build on these findings by examining trade-specific and institutional mechanisms shaping earnings among childhood immigrants, including wage-setting arrangements, union coverage, firm size, regional labour market conditions and social networks. Following childhood immigrant journeypersons beyond four years after certification would provide further insights on whether income gaps narrow, persist or widen over time, while qualitative or mixed-methods approaches could shed light on workplace practices, hiring processes, social networks (informal and formal) and access to higher-paying assignments that are not observable in administrative data.

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