Economic and Social Reports
Postsecondary enrolment rates by parental income: National and sub-national trends from 2001 to 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202500400002-eng

Text begins

Obtaining a postsecondary education is an important factor in long-term labour market success (Frenette 2019) and a key mechanism for achieving intergenerational income mobility (Simard-Duplain and St-Denis 2020). Previous research ending in 2014 documented substantial gaps in postsecondary enrolment rates between higher- and lower-income youth (Frenette 2017). Although older research largely found non-financial factors to be direct influencers of these gaps (e.g., parental background, such as education levels and expectations for their children, as well as academic factors such as high school grades and standardized test scores), some students reported financial constraints as the primary reason for not enrolling in postsecondary education (Frenette 2007). Moreover, there is a robust system of student financial assistance (grants, loans and savings incentives) in Canada that is designed to help students in need pay for their postsecondary education. Therefore, continuing to track postsecondary enrolment trends by parental income is informative for policy development. The purpose of this short article is to update the results of Frenette (2017) with more recent data from 2001 to 2022.

Specifically, the article uses the T1 Family File to track postsecondary enrolment rates at age 19^Note  based on the presence of tuition credits in the tax data. Importantly, the trends are shown for all provinces and territories combined, as well as for each province and territory individually. When possible, results are also shown by quintile^Note  of after-tax parental income, adjusted for family size, expressed in 2022 constant dollars, and based on thresholds from the 2022 distribution of parental income.^Note  Frenette (2017) described the approach in more detail and validated the approach for identifying postsecondary enrolment.

At the national level, the postsecondary enrolment rate among 19 year-olds across all income quintiles increased gradually throughout the 2000s and 2010s, going from 46.7% in 2001 to 59.5% in 2019—just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart A.1). During this period, enrolment rates increased more among youth from families in lower income quintiles. For example, the enrolment rate increased by 11.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2019 among youth from families in the bottom income quintile, compared to 6.0 percentage points among their counterparts in the top income quintile.^Note 

Since 2019, the share enrolled in postsecondary education has declined moderately (from 59.5% in 2019 and 2020 to 59.0% in 2021 and 58.3% in 2022). While this decline may have been due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is not possible to make a definitive link between the two. The only other decrease observed during the entire period was from 2016 (59.7%) to 2017 (58.7%).

The decline registered from 2019 to 2022 was broad in scope. Across income quintiles, decreases varied from 1.5 percentage points to 2.6 percentage points, with similar declines registered at the top and bottom of the income distribution when measured in absolute terms. However, when expressed in relative terms, the decline in the enrolment rate was larger in the bottom income quintile (3.5%) than in the top income quintile (1.9%). This contrasts with the trend in the period from 2001 to 2019, when the gap in enrolment rates between youth in the top income quintile and those in the bottom quintile was declining in both absolute and relative terms. Indeed, the postsecondary enrolment rate among youth in the top income quintile increased by 1.7% during this period, compared with 21.8% among their counterparts in the bottom income quintile.

Overall, in 2022, 58.3% of youth aged 19 were enrolled in postsecondary education, but this varied by income level—75.2% of those in the top income quintile were enrolled, compared with 43.2% of their counterparts in the bottom income quintile.

The overall enrolment rates also varied substantially by province and territory in 2022 (Table A.1). Ontario ranked first, with 65.3% of youth aged 19 enrolled in postsecondary studies. Next were the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and British Columbia, where enrolment rates ranged from 56.0% to 58.7%. These were followed by the Prairie provinces and Yukon, with enrolment rates of 44.5% to 48.8%. Finally, Nunavut (11.5%) and the Northwest Territories (31.8%) registered the lowest enrolment rates in 2022. Although the postsecondary enrolment rates were lower in the territories, these jurisdictions tended to import skilled (or postsecondary educated) labour far more than the provinces (Frenette and Handler 2024). This was especially the case for Nunavut.^Note 

As was the case in Canada as a whole, postsecondary enrolment rates varied substantially across the income distribution in each province in 2022.^Note  The gap in enrolment rates between youth in the top income quintile and those in the bottom quintile was lowest in British Columbia (22.0 percentage points), followed by Ontario (28.5 percentage points) and Prince Edward Island (30.6%). In Ontario, a relatively high enrolment rate among youth at the bottom of the income distribution (52.3%, the highest among all provinces) was largely responsible for the small gap across the income distribution. The largest gaps were registered in New Brunswick (45.3 percentage points), Manitoba (44.6 percentage points), and Newfoundland and Labrador (43.5 percentage points).

With regard to provincial and territorial trends over time, the increase in the overall enrolment rate among 19-year-olds from 2001 to 2022 was largest in Quebec (18.5 percentage points), followed by Newfoundland and Labrador (15.2 percentage points) and Ontario (13.6 percentage points). The increases in Quebec and in Newfoundland and Labrador were broad-based, as evidenced by increases that were similar in all five income quintiles. By contrast, Ontario registered a larger increase in the enrolment rate among youth in the bottom income quintile (16.2 percentage points), compared with youth in the top income quintile (7.3 percentage points).

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Manitoba and Saskatchewan registered little to no change in the share of youth aged 19 who enrolled in postsecondary education from 2001 to 2022, while Yukon registered a moderate decline of 6.9 percentage points over the same period. Saskatchewan registered a substantial decrease in the postsecondary enrolment rate of youth in the bottom income quintile (from 31.6% in 2001 to 23.3% in 2022—down 8.2 percentage points).

In line with the national results, most of the changes registered by the provinces and territories occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2019 to 2022, overall enrolment rates declined moderately in most jurisdictions and, for the most part, across the jurisdictions’ income distribution as well.

It will be important to continue monitoring trends in postsecondary enrolment rates, at both the national and the sub-national levels because they represent early indicators of the development of human capital for the economy as a whole, as well as for different segments of the population based on parental income.

Authors

Marc Frenette is with the Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada.

Appendix

References

Frenette, M. 2003. Access to College and University: Does Distance Matter? Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 201.

Frenette, M. 2007. Why Are Youth from Lower-income Families Less Likely to Attend University? Evidence from Academic Abilities, Parental Influences, and Financial Constraints. Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 295.

Frenette, M. 2017. Postsecondary Enrolment by Parental Income: Recent National and Provincial Trends. Economic Insights, no. 070.

Frenette, M. 2019. Are the Career Prospects of Postsecondary Graduates Improving? Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 415.

Frenette, M. and Handler, T. 2024. Retention and Recruitment of Young, Skilled Workers: Results by Province and Territory. Economic and Social Reports. Vol. 4, no. 4.

Simard-Duplain, G. and St-Denis, X. 2020. Exploration of the Role of Education in Intergenerational Income Mobility in Canada: Evidence from the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults. Canadian Public Policy, 46(3).