Analysis

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September estimates of production of principal field crops

Grain and oilseed production in the Prairie provinces was expected to decline for total wheat and for canola in 2010 compared with 2009. In contrast, farmers in Manitoba, Quebec and Ontario reported they expected to harvest a record soybean crop.

Farmer comments reported that cool and wet conditions delayed seeding in some parts of the Prairies and wet weather in September was reported to be delaying the harvesting of crops. Since the survey was taken, widespread frost has been reported in the Prairies and the resultant effects on final yield and production will be reflected on the November survey.

Prairie total wheat production down

Farmers expected total wheat production in the Prairies to reach 20.0 million metric tonnes, a drop of 18.5% from 2009. Reported average yield was 38.9 bushels per acre, down 3.0% from 2009.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan farmers foresaw a sharp drop in production of 25.8% and 28.3% respectively, while Alberta farmers expected an increase of 2.6%, the result of a reported increase in yield.

Canola production should fall

Prairie farmers reported that canola production was expected to fall 16.3 % from 2009 to 10.3 million metric tonnes, as a result of a decline in expected yield.

Decreases in production were expected in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with declines of 32.2% and 27.2% respectively. In contrast, Alberta farmers expected to harvest the second largest crop in Alberta history at 4.0 million metric tonnes. This was mainly due to a record harvested area of 5.4 million acres.

Possible record soybean production in Manitoba, Quebec and Ontario

Farmers in Manitoba, Quebec and Ontario reported increases in soybean production to new highs, the result of record harvested areas in each province. Total production for these three provinces has risen steadily since 2007.

Soybean production in Quebec was reported to reach 750,000 metric tonnes, 25% above the previous record of 600,000 metric tonnes set in 2008. Ontario soybean production was expected to rise by 8.1% from 2009 to 2.8 million metric tonnes, the highest production estimate since 2006. In Manitoba, production could rise to 400,100 metric tonnes, 24.6% above 2009.