Analysis

View the most recent version.

July 31 estimate of production of principalfield crops, Canada

Farmers reported they expect to produce less grains and oilseeds in the Prairies compared to 2008. Farmers in Ontario and Quebec could produce less corn but more soybeans.

The July farm survey is a preliminary survey of Canadian field crop production, and was conducted between July 27 to August 4, covering 14,600 Canadian farmers.

In the West, late germination caused by unfavourable conditions this spring has held back progress by about two weeks compared to normal. Yields will drop for all major crops compared to 2008. In the drought-stricken areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta, higher than normal abandonment was also shown to be a factor in the loss of production.

In Ontario and Quebec, excessive moisture and cool growing conditions held back growing progress.

Canola production down

Canola production in the Prairies should decline considerably, with a reduction in area and drop in yield responsible. Production in the Prairie provinces is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes, down 24.7% from 2008.

Farmers reported potential declines in area, yield and production for all three Prairie provinces. The largest percentage decline may occur in Alberta, where a drop of 38.8% to 2.6 million tonnes was reported.

Feed grains decline

In the Prairies, all provinces reported possible decreases in production of barley and oats. Early indications are that Prairie barley production will fall 26.1% to 8.3 million tonnes, and oat production will fall 34.4% to 2.6 million tonnes.

Oat production may drop 43.8% in Manitoba, followed by Saskatchewan at 31.2% and Alberta down 28.2%. Harvested area and yield were down in each province. Barley production should fall by similar amounts, with the largest decline of 30.6% reported in Alberta.

Soybean production expected to increase marginally

Farmers in Quebec and Ontario predict increases in soybean production, the result of an expected record harvested area in both provinces.

Soybean production in Quebec is expected to reach a new high at 610,000 tonnes. This optimism is based on a 5.0% increase in harvested area to an estimated 594,300 acres.

Ontario farmers expect an increase in soybean production of 1.6% to 2.5 million tonnes, the result of an additional 305,000 harvested acres to a total of 2.4 million acres.