Analysis

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Estimates of production of principal field crops

Farmers, in mid-harvest, reported they expect to produce 10.9 million tonnes of canola, exceeding the previous record of 9.5 million tonnes produced in 2007. Wheat excluding durum production is reported to be up 35.6% over 2007. In eastern Canada, Quebec farmers anticipate a previously unattained production amount of 615,000 tonnes of soybeans.

At the time of the September farm survey, crop maturity and the fall harvest in the West were delayed by cool conditions and excess moisture. Harvest conditions were most advanced in southern regions but they improved considerably in most areas after the survey had taken place.

Canola production up

Canola production is expected to rise to 10.9 million tonnes, 1.4 million tonnes above the previous high of 9.5 million tonnes reported in 2007. This exceeds the pre-harvest July estimate by 495,000 tonnes. Production should increase mainly as the result of an above-average yield of 30.6 bushels per acre.

In the Prairie provinces where 99% of canola is grown, farmers expect to exceed the previous record production in each province. The mid-harvest yields reported in the September survey showed an improvement over the pre-harvest yields from the July survey in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Wheat excluding durum production expected to exceed five-year average

Farmers expect to harvest 22.2 million tonnes of wheat excluding durum, an increase of 35.6% from 16.4 million tonnes in 2007 and easily exceeding the previous five–year average (2003-2007) production of 19.4 million tonnes. A 15.0% increase in harvested area and a yield of 42.8 bushels per acre account for this increase.

Production in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to show an increase over 2007, exceeding their previous five-year provincial averages.

Mid-harvest yields showed improvement in all Prairie provinces compared to the pre-harvest yields reported in July.

Soybean production expected to rise in the East

Total soybean production is expected to reach 3.2 million tonnes, just short of the highest level of 3.5 million tonnes produced in 2006. Production should rise in both Quebec and Ontario, where 90% of soybeans are grown.

Production in Quebec is anticipated to increase 30.3% to 615,000 tonnes, a value exceeding the previous high of 535,000 tonnes set in 2006. The production increase is the result of a rise in harvested area of 31.6% from 2007.

Soybean production in Ontario is expected to rise to 2.3 million tonnes, up 16.3% from 2007 due to a yield increase. Farmers reported a yield of 40.8 bushels per acre, a rise of 7.8 bushels per acre over 2007.