Analysis

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Stocks of Canadian grain at July 31, 2008

At the end of the crop-year on July 31st, total stocks of durum wheat (used for pasta) and wheat excluding durum (used in breads and pastry) have declined to amounts not seen since the late 1980's. Total stocks of durum fell to 842,000 tonnes, down 31.7% from the same date in 2007, and total stocks of wheat excluding durum fell 28.6% to 4.0 million tonnes.

Stocks of wheat decline

Decreases in both types of wheat were observed in all Western provinces and in national commercial positions.

Lower production in 2006 and 2007 coupled with a steady demand in the export market has drawn down durum stock levels. Durum wheat stocks held on farms were down 83.3% from 300,000 tonnes in July 2007 to a very low level of 50,000 tonnes, and commercial stocks were down 15.1% to 792,000 tonnes.

The declines in stocks of wheat excluding durum were primarily the result of a drop in production in 2007 following the lowest spring wheat seeded area in over 30 years. Wheat excluding durum stocks held on farms were down 60.9% compared with July 2007 to 656,000 tonnes, a value not seen since 1995. Stocks held in commercial positions were down just 14.7% to 3.3 million tonnes. The previous five-year average (2003-2007) was 3.5 million tonnes.