Analysis

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March intentions of principal field crops areas, Canada, 2008

Prairie farmers anticipate a record area of canola and field peas, along with gains in spring wheat and durum, according to the 2008 March seeding intentions survey.

In the East, Quebec growers may see a record area of soybeans, while farmers in Ontario and Quebec expect to seed less corn for grain.

The survey, which covered 16,000 Canadian farmers, indicated potential increases in the area for canola, field peas, spring wheat and durum, but fewer acres of oats and barley on the Prairies.

It is too early to assess planting conditions for this spring. However, on the Prairies, concerns have already been raised due to persistently dry conditions in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Survey data reveal only intentions. Economic and environmental conditions are always subject to change, requiring farmers to modify their plans prior to planting time. Some farmers indicated that they were still undecided about their final strategies for 2008.

Canola acreage may hit a record

Early indications are that Prairie farmers may seed a record 14.7 million acres of canola, up 0.4% or 50,000 acres from the record set in 2007. The five-year average is 13.0 million acres.

Farmers in Alberta reported that they may plant a record 5.1 million acres, an increase of 13.3% or 600,000 acres. That would break the previous record of 5.0 million acres set in 1994.

Spring wheat and durum wheat areas could jump

Prairie farmers anticipated a 9.4%, or 1.4 million acre increase in intended spring wheat plantings to a potential 16.3 million acres. This would be slightly below the five-year average of 17.0 million acres.

Spring wheat acreage should increase in all three Prairie provinces, but still remain less than the five-year average in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Prairie durum area could rise by 22.5%, or 1.1 million acres, in 2008. In Saskatchewan, where the majority of Canadian durum is grown, the area should rise 28.4%, while in Alberta, the planted area could fall 8.5% to 700,000 acres.

Barley and oat areas tumble

The total area seeded to barley on the Prairies is expected to tumble by 15.4%, or 1.6 million acres, to an estimated 8.7 million acres. This would be well below the five-year average of 10.0 million acres.

Farmers in all three Prairie provinces reported possible decreases, with levels below the five-year average in each province.

Prairie farmers reported that they expected to plant 4.1 million acres of oats, a decline of 16.8% or 825,000 acres from the area planted in 2007. The five-year average is 4.4 million acres. Possible declines are expected in each Prairie province.

Field pea area could rise to record territory

Field pea acreage could rise again in 2008 by 4.3% to 3.8 million acres. This would be an increase of 155,000 acres from the record of 3.6 million acres set in 2007.

The main contributing factor could be expectations for a record planted area in Alberta. Farmers there reported an increase of 14.8% to 700,000 acres, which could easily break the record of 660,000 acres set in 2000.

Eastern farmers set to plant more soybeans and less graincorn

Quebec farmers said they may plant a record 593,100 acres to soybeans this year, up 36.4% from 2007. The previous record was 494,200 acres set in 2004.

On the other hand, Ontario farmers intend to plant 6.2% fewer acres in soybeans, taking acreage to 2.1 million acres, the smallest level since 2003.

Growers in Ontario and Quebec reported that they intend to plant less acreage in corn for grain in 2008.

Quebec farmers reported a potential drop of 11.1% to 998,400 acres; those in Ontario saw a potential decline of 13.1% to 1.8 million acres.