Survey Methodology
Sample-based estimation of mean electricity consumption curves for small domains

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by Anne De Moliner and Camelia GogaNote 1

  • Release date: December 20, 2018
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Abstract

Many studies conducted by various electric utilities around the world are based on the analysis of mean electricity consumption curves for various subpopulations, particularly geographic in nature. Those mean curves are estimated from samples of thousands of curves measured at very short intervals over long periods. Estimation for small subpopulations, also called small domains, is a very timely topic in sampling theory.

In this article, we will examine this problem based on functional data and we will try to estimate the mean curves for small domains. For this, we propose four methods: functional linear regression; modelling the scores of a principal component analysis by unit-level linear mixed models; and two non-parametric estimators, with one based on regression trees and the other on random forests, adapted to the curves. All these methods have been tested and compared using real electricity consumption data for households in France.

Key Words:      Regression trees; functional data; random forests; linear mixed models; robustness.

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How to cite

De Moliner, A., and Goga, C. (2018). Sample-based estimation of mean electricity consumption curves for small domains. Survey Methodology, Statistics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-001-X, Vol. 44, No. 2. Paper available at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/12-001-x/2018002/article/54955-eng.htm.

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ISSN : 1492-0921

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Survey Methodology publishes articles dealing with various aspects of statistical development relevant to a statistical agency, such as design issues in the context of practical constraints, use of different data sources and collection techniques, total survey error, survey evaluation, research in survey methodology, time series analysis, seasonal adjustment, demographic studies, data integration, estimation and data analysis methods, and general survey systems development. The emphasis is placed on the development and evaluation of specific methodologies as applied to data collection or the data themselves. All papers will be refereed. However, the authors retain full responsibility for the contents of their papers and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Board or of Statistics Canada.

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Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada.

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2018

Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement.

Catalogue No. 12-001-X

Frequency: Semi-annual

Ottawa

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Table of contents

Abstract - Article main page
Section 1. Introduction and context
Section 2. Notations and framework
Section 3. Direct estimation methods in the design-based approach
Section 4. Model-based estimation methods
Section 5. Application to electricity consumption curves
Section 6. Conclusions and outlooks
Acknowledgements
References

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