Table 5
Probability of entering and exiting export markets
(marginal impact)
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| Entry | Exit | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specification (1) | Specification (2) | Specification (1) | Specification (2) | |||||
| estimate | standard error | estimate | standard error | estimate | standard error | estimate | standard error | |
| Marginal effect of interaction terms | ||||||||
| Average tariff changes × relative labour productivity | -0.024 ** | 0.009 | … | … | 0.034 ** | 0.017 | … | … |
| Average tariff changes × relative employment | -0.022 ** | 0.005 | … | … | 0.068 ** | 0.033 | … | … |
| Canadian tariff changes × relative labour productivity | … | … | -0.013 ** | 0.006 | … | … | 0.019 | 0.022 |
| Canadian tariff changes × relative employment | … | … | -0.001 | 0.003 | … | … | 0.056 ** | 0.022 |
| US tariff changes × relative labour productivity | … | … | -0.015 | 0.010 | … | … | 0.014 | 0.039 |
| US tariff changes × relative employment | … | … | -0.038 ** | 0.007 | … | … | -0.004 | 0.033 |
| Real exchange rate changes × relative labour productivity | 0.003 * | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Real exchange rate changes × relative employment | -0.007 ** | 0.001 | -0.007 ** | 0.001 | 0.010 ** | 0.005 | 0.010 ** | 0.005 |
| Overall marginal impact | ||||||||
| Average tariff changes | -0.007 | 0.007 | … | … | -0.004 | 0.023 | … | … |
| Canadian tariff changes | … | … | -0.009 * | 0.005 | … | … | 0.012 | 0.016 |
| U.S tariff changes | … | … | 0.009 | 0.010 | … | … | -0.029 | 0.026 |
| U.S/Canada real exchange rate changes | -0.010 ** | 0.002 | -0.010 ** | 0.002 | 0.012 ** | 0.004 | 0.011 ** | 0.004 |
| Relative labour productivity | 0.031 ** | 0.003 | 0.032 ** | 0.003 | -0.041 ** | 0.008 | -0.041 ** | 0.008 |
| Relative employment | 0.043 ** | 0.002 | 0.043 ** | 0.002 | -0.106 ** | 0.012 | -0.107 ** | 0.012 |
| Age | 0.002 ** | 0.000 | 0.002 ** | 0.000 | -0.004 ** | 0.001 | -0.004 ** | 0.001 |
| Foreign-control | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.003 | 0.007 | -0.071 ** | 0.012 | -0.071 ** | 0.012 |
| Industry real-gross-shipment growth | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.001 | 0.001 | -0.001 | 0.001 |
Note(s):
** and * significant at the 5 percent and 10 percent
levels, respectively. Specification (1) uses average tariff changes between
Canada and the United States in the probit regression, while specification
(2) uses Canadian tariff changes and U.S. tariff changes. Marginal effects
for interaction terms are calculated according to equation (2), and overall
marginal impacts according to equation (3). They are based on estimated probit
coefficients from Table 11 and evaluated at mean values of covariates.
Source(s):
Authors' calculations.
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