Table 12
Predicted probability of exit: by ownership control status

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Predicted probability of exit: by ownership control status: Part 1
  1979 to 1984 1984 to 1990 1990 to 1996
  estimate standard error estimate standard error estimate standard error
Domestic-controlled plants  
Predicted exit rate for scenarios  
 1: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=0 30.6 * 0.006 26.4 * 0.015 23.0 * 0.019
 2: changes in tariffs =actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=0 35.6 * 0.002 33.5 * 0.013 38.0 * 0.014
 3: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 30.5 * 0.006 28.1 * 0.008 21.4 * 0.015
 4: changes in tariffs = actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 35.5 * 0.002 35.4 * 0.002 36.0 * 0.002
Difference between scenarios  
 2 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from tariff changes) 5.0 * 0.006 7.1 * 0.008 15.0 * 0.016
 3 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from real-exchange-rate changes) -0.1 0.001 1.7 0.012 -1.6 0.011
 4 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from changes in tariffs and real exchange rates) 4.9 * 0.006 9.0 * 0.015 13.0 * 0.019
Foreign-controlled plants  
Predicted exit rate for scenarios  
 1: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=0 21.6 * 0.013 13.8 * 0.023 16.4 * 0.040
 2: changes in tariffs =actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=0 28.1 * 0.004 22.4 * 0.022 29.1 * 0.027
 3: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 21.4 * 0.013 17.7 * 0.018 12.6 * 0.032
 4: changes in tariffs = actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 27.9 * 0.004 27.7 * 0.006 23.6 * 0.006
Difference between scenarios  
 2 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from tariff changes) 6.6 * 0.014 8.7 * 0.018 12.7 * 0.035
 3 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from real-exchange-rate changes) -0.2 * 0.001 4.0 * 0.013 -3.8 ** 0.021
 4 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from changes in tariffs and real exchange rates) 6.3 * 0.014 13.9 * 0.024 7.2 * 0.037
Predicted probability of exit: by ownership control status: Part 2
  1979 to 1984 1984 to 1990 1990 to 1996
  percent
Domestic-controlled plants  
Actual average changes in tariffs over the period (in percentage) -1.1 -1.7 -3.5
Actual average changes in real exchange rates over the period (in percentage) -0.6 11.2 -11.1
Foreign-controlled plants  
Actual average changes in tariffs over the period (in percentage) -1.0 -1.8 -2.9
Actual average changes in real exchange rates over the period (in percentage) -0.4 9.7 -11.5
*
p<0.05
Note(s):
Predicted probability is evaluated at the group mean values of all variables. An alternative is to derive average predicted probabilities over all observations by group. The two methods yield very similar results.