Table 11
Predicted probability of exit: by export status

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Predicted probability of exit: by export status: Part 1
  1979 to 1984 1984 to 1990 1990 to 1996
  estimate standard error estimate standard error estimate standard error
Non-exporters  
Predicted exit rate for scenario  
 1: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=0 32.7 * 0.006 29.0 * 0.015 26.6 * 0.02
 2: changes in tariffs =actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=0 37.0 * 0.002 35.2 * 0.013 39.9 * 0.014
 3: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 32.7 * 0.006 30.6 * 0.009 24.9 * 0.016
 4: changes in tariffs = actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 36.9 * 0.002 36.9 * 0.002 37.8 * 0.002
Difference between scenarios  
 2 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from tariff changes) 4.3 * 0.006 6.2 * 0.009 13.2 * 0.017
 3 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from real-exchange-rate changes) -0.04 0.000 1.6 0.012 -1.7 0.012
 4 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from changes in tariffs and real exchange rates) 4.2 * 0.006 7.9 * 0.016 11.2 * 0.020
Exporters  
Predicted exit rate for scenarios  
 1: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=0 15.9 * 0.011 6.7 * 0.014 8.2 * 0.022
 2: changes in tariffs =actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=0 22.0 * 0.004 13.7 * 0.017 29.3 * 0.029
 3: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 14.3 * 0.011 11.3 * 0.013 4.7 * 0.013
 4: changes in tariffs = actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes 20.0 * 0.005 21.1 * 0.004 20.5 * 0.005
Difference between scenarios  
 2 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from tariff changes) 6.1 * 0.012 7.0 * 0.012 21.2 * 0.025
 3 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from real-exchange-rate changes) -1.6 * 0.004 4.6 * 0.010 -3.5 * 0.013
 4 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from changes in tariffs and real exchange rates) 4.0 * 0.012 14.4 * 0.014 12.4 * 0.018
Predicted probability of exit: by export status: Part 2
  1979 to 1984 1984 to 1990 1990 to 1996
  percent
Non-exporters  
Actual average changes in tariffs over the period (in percentage) -1.1 -1.7 -3.5
Actual average changes in real exchange rates over the period (in percentage) -0.3 11.1 -11.5
Exporters  
Actual average changes in tariffs over the period (in percentage) -1.0 -1.7 -3.2
Actual average changes in real exchange rates over the period (in percentage) -2.5 10.0 -9.8
*
p<0.05
Note(s):
Predicted probability is evaluated at the group mean values of all variables. An alternative is to derive average predicted probabilities over all observations by group. The two methods yield very similar results.