Table 10
Predicted probability of exit: all plants

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Predicted probability of exit: all plants: Part 1
	1979 to 1984		1984 to 1990		1990 to 1996
	estimate	standard error	estimate	standard error	estimate	standard error
Predicted exit rate for scenario
1: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=0	29.6 ^*	0.006	24.0 ^*	0.013	22.4 ^*	0.017
2: changes in tariffs =actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=0	34.6 ^*	0.002	31.2 ^*	0.011	37.5 ^*	0.013
3: changes in tariffs = 0, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes	29.4 ^*	0.005	26.8 ^*	0.008	19.8 ^*	0.014
4: changes in tariffs = actual changes, changes in real exchange rates=actual changes	34.4 ^*	0.002	34.3 ^*	0.002	34.2 ^*	0.002
Difference between scenarios
2 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from tariff changes)	5.0 ^*	0.005	7.2 ^*	0.008	15.1 ^*	0.015
3 and 1 (predicted exit rate resulting from real-exchange-rate changes)	-0.2 ^*	0.001	2.8 ^*	0.010	-2.5 ^*	0.010

Predicted probability of exit: all plants: Part 2
	1979 to 1984	1984 to 1990	1990 to 1996
	percent
Actual average changes in tariffs over the period	-1.1	-2.0	-3.7
Actual average changes in real exchange rates over the period	-0.9	9.4	-11.1

p<0.05

Note(s):

Predicted probability is evaluated at mean values of all variables. An alternative is to derive average predicted probabilities over all observations. The two methods yield very similar results.

Table 10Predicted probability of exit: all plants

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Table 10
Predicted probability of exit: all plants