Predicted probability of exit by tariff changes and export status
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Note(s): All variables are measured as deviations from 2-digit industry mean values. Predicted exit rate is evaluated at the common 2-digit industry mean values of trade cost (Figure 11) or real exchange rate changes (Figure 11), and at group-specific 2-digit industry mean values of productivity, employment and age. The plots cover the entire range of actual changes in tariffs and real exchange rates.
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