Postsecondary education, a Maritime perspective

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Release date: December 10, 2018

Talking Stats: A discussion series with Statistics Canada

Anil Arora
Chief Statistician of Canada

Halifax, Nova Scotia
December 10, 2018

Outline

Who we are

Maritime perspective

Moving forward: Statistics Canada data strategies

Who we are

Connecting quality statistics to Canadians' decision making

Leader in providing quality indicators and supporting responsible use of data

Capacity-building nation wide and government wide on the use of statistics

Good data, good policy, good evidence

The Centre for Education Statistics provides data:

On the four pillars of learning

and the systems that support them

Education in the late 19th century: In the Maritime provinces only half of the children are in class

A portrait of 1891:

125 years later…Expenditures are $2.5B; 236,000 pupils enrolled; 17,000 teachers in the classroom

Source: Department of Agriculture, Canada Year Book (1891), Census (1891)

The mid-20th century brought a rapid rise of education in the Maritime provinces

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Description for Chart 6 - College and University Enrolments
College and University Enrolments
  College University
1890   642
1900   1,048
1910   1,122
1914   1,196
1920   2,278
1930   3,018
1940   3,172
1950   6,320
1955 2,464 7,251
1960 3,291 10,336
1970 5,903 27,961
1975 5,765 30,941
1980 5,627 30,775
1990 6,355 46,440
2000 13,191 52,779
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada Year Book (various years); Statistics Canada, Historical Compendium of Education Statistics (1978), PSIS, USIS, CSIS.

Source: Department of Agriculture and Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada Year Book (various years); Statistics Canada, Historical Compendium of Education Statistics (1978), PSIS, USIS, CSIS

The number of universities in the Maritimes quadrupled since the 19th century and five of Canada's oldest are located there

1891

14 universities

1937

17 universities

2016

112 universities

Source: Department of Agriculture, Canada Year Book (1891); Statistics Canada, UCASS

And the proportion of female professors in Maritimes universities has increased from 1% in 1920 to over 40% in 2016

Percentage of female professors:

Source: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Canada Year book (1921); Statistics Canada, University and College Academic Staff System

Present-day Maritimes institutions: centralized colleges and numerous smaller universities

Source: Statistics Canada, Education at a Glance, 2017

Maritimes postsecondary institutions are affected by demographic trends

Population growth (2011-2016)
Province/Territory Population size in 2016 Population growth (2011 to 2016)
Newfoundland and Labrador

519,716

+1.0%

Prince Edward Island

142,907

+1.9%

Nova Scotia

923,598

+0.2%

New Brunswick

747,101

-0.5%

Quebec

8,164,361

+3.3%

Ontario

13,448,494

+4.6%

Manitoba

1,278,365

+5.8%

Saskatchewan

1,098,352

+6.3%

Alberta

4,067,175

+11.6%

British Columbia

4,648,055

+5.6%

Yukon

35,874

+5.8%

Northwest Territories

41,786

+0.8%

Nunavut

35,944

+12.7%

Population growth was below the Canadian average

For the first time in Census history, in the Maritimes the share of seniors 65+ (20%) now exceeds the share of children 14 years and under (14%). This is also the case for Canada on the whole.

Rapid population aging and slow demographic growth in the Maritimes

The median age in the Maritimes is higher than the Canadian median age


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Description for Chart 10 - Rapid population aging and slow demographic growth in the Maritimes
Rapid population aging and slow demographic growth in the Maritimes
  Median age
Canada 41.3
Prince Edward Island 44.5
Nova Scotia 45.5
New Brunswick 45.7
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016.

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016

In recent years, college and university enrolments decreased in the Maritimes

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Description for Chart 11 - Enrolments in the Maritimes
Enrolments in the Maritimes
  Maritimes
2000 79,404
2001 86,832
2002 86,127
2003 90,141
2004 89,403
2005 89,082
2006 87,336
2007 86,670
2008 86,997
2009 89,481
2010 93,714
2011 93,897
2012 92,577
2013 92,595
2014 90,063
2015 88,470
Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)

...unlike in the rest of Canada (ROC)

Enrolments in 2015 expressed as a percentage of 2011 enrolments

94% Maritimes:

102% Rest of Canada

Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)

Increasing enrolments for international students have offset the overall decline

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Description for Chart 12a - Postsecondary students in the Maritimes
Postsecondary students in the Maritimes
Origin of Students Number Percentage
International students 11,817 13
Canadian students coming from outside the Maritimes 13,740 16
Maritime residents 62,117 71
Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)
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Description for Chart 12b - Percentage change in enrolments, 2011 to 2015
Percentage change in enrolments, 2011 to 2015
  Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Rest of Canada
Canadian students -14.4 -4.3 -15.4 -2.4
International students 44.7 31.4 -5.0 41.8
Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)

Just over 10,000 residents left the Maritimes to attend PSE

Once entering colleges and universities, student pathways are complex

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Description for Chart 13 - Completion status by number of years after starting undergraduate program, 2006 cohort, Maritime institutions
Completion status by number of years after starting undergraduate program, 2006 cohort, Maritime institutions
 % After 1 year After 2 years After 3 years After 4 years After 5 years After 6 years
Completed degree (graduation) 0% 2% 27% 50% 61% 65%
Still enrolled (persistence) 84% 72% 46% 21% 9% 5%
Not enrolled 16% 26% 27% 29% 31% 31%
Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS).

Status of students who did not complete and were not enrolled in a Maritime university after 6 years

Source: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)

Once completing their studies, most university and college graduates from the Maritimes are working in the region

But field of study matters!

Proportion of non-Maritimes graduates who stay in the Maritimes to work: 10%

Proportion of Maritimes graduates who stay in the Maritimes to work: 77%

In the following fields of study, a higher proportion of Maritime graduates stay in the Maritimes to work:

Proportion of non-Maritimes graduates who stay in the Maritimes to work: 10%

In the following fields of study, lower proportions of Maritime graduates stay in the Maritimes to work:

Source: Statistics Canada, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)

Registered apprentices also contribute to the skilled workforce

New apprenticeship registrations in the Maritimes have been stable, while in the rest of Canada, they vary with economic cycles

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Description for Chart 15 - Maritimes vs. Rest of Canada registrations of apprentices, index 2001=100
Maritimes vs. Rest of Canada registrations of apprentices, index 2001=100
Year Maritimes Rest of Canada Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick
2001 100 100 100 100 100
2002 91.7 99.6 96.3 91.1 92.0
2003 88.1 104.3 116.7 84.5 88.4
2004 83.0 111.5 100.0 73.0 92.7
2005 88.6 138.4 87.0 82.7 96.3
2006 105.3 154.4 59.3 101.5 117.7
2007 114.6 164.2 142.6 110.2 115.6
2008 131.2 180.9 142.6 124.7 137.6
2009 116.8 153.1 116.7 112.5 122.3
2010 125.9 167.0 161.1 125.2 121.7
2011 120.1 175.0 150.0 116.8 119.6
2012 122.1 189.7 159.3 132.3 103.7
2013 125.8 186.4 174.1 129.0 114.7
2014 123.7 183.3 164.8 119.1 122.6
2015 116.4 155.8 155.6 110.9 117.1
2016 113.5 140.3 129.6 119.3 104.3
Source: Statistics Canada, Register Apprentice Information System (RAIS).

Overall, young adults in the Maritimes are as likely to have post-secondary education as young adults in the rest of Canada

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Description for Chart 16 - Educational attainment
Educational attainment
  Maritime provinces Rest of Canada
Percentage
Less than high school 8 9
High school 25 21
Trades 8 10
College or university below bachelor's level 30 25
Bachelor's degree or higher 29 34
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2016.

While the Aboriginal population in the Maritimes is more likely to have postsecondary education

Proportion of the Aboriginal population aged 29 to 45 years with a PSE credential:

And those with a postsecondary education are more likely to have the problem-solving in technology-rich environments (PS-TRE) required for the digital economy

Proportion of 25-64 year olds with less than high school with highest level of PS-TRE skills:

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Description for Chart 17 - Proportion of postsecondary-educated 25-to 64-year-olds with the highest level of PS-TRE skills, 2012
Proportion of postsecondary-educated 25-to 64-year-olds with the highest level of PS-TRE skills, 2012
Geography Percentage
OECD 52
Canada 47
Prince Edward Island 48
Nova Scotia 43
New Brunswick 54
Source: Statistics Canada, Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC).

Postsecondary education provides an advantage in the labour market, and more so in the Maritimes than in the rest of Canada

Employment rates for those without postsecondary education is lower in the Maritimes compared to the rest of Canada

Employment rates for those with postsecondary education above the trades is similar in the Maritimes and the rest of Canada

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Description for Chart 18 - Employment rate by educational attainment
Employment rate by educational attainment
Maritimes Rest of Canada
Percentage
Below high school 52 56
High school 68 74
Trades 80 85
College, university diploma below a BA 85 84
Bachelor or higher 86 86
Source: Statistics Canada, Education at a Glance, 2017.

Higher education levels lead to higher wages and salaries in the Maritimes in most fields of study

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Description for Chart 19 - Median wages and salary in constant 2016 dollars
Median wages and salary in constant 2016 dollars
  Career training certificate Career training diploma Undergraduate degree Master's degree
Education 31,400 80,000 36,900 82,900
Business, management, public administration 24,200 30,100 42,800 71,700
Health and Related 28,500 39,800 67,000 69,000
Architecture, engineering, and related 34,600 43,200 61,200 59,800
Personal, protective and transportation services 34,200 28,700 -1 -1
Visual and performing arts, communications 16,700 25,100 25,200 -1
Source: Statistics Canada, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP).

And choice of field of study has an effect on earnings as well…

Average earnings for STEM graduates: $48,000 Maritimes, $53,800 ROC

Average earnings for graduates from other fields of study: $40,400 Maritimes, $42,800 ROC

Source: Statistics Canada, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)

Several years after obtaining certification, earnings for Red Seal trade apprentices in the Maritimes were higher than earnings for undergraduate degree graduates

Average median earnings five years after obtaining certification or after graduating:

Source: Statistics Canada, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)

However, overall earnings trajectories are more favourable for Maritime university graduates

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Description for Chart 22 - Median earnings
Median earnings
  25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years
High School 22,838 27,783 31,145 34,467 33,937 34,854 31,595 23,641
Trades 31,688 36,494 40,945 41,103 40,678 41,341 39,490 29,453
College 30,180 34,680 39,305 40,351 41,416 41,796 38,281 26,704
University 34,381 49,431 60,947 68,385 71,026 73,925 68,460 37,493
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of population, 2016

From a gender perspective in the Maritimes, as in the rest of Canada, women have higher levels of education, except in the trades

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Description for Chart 23 - Median earnings by educational attainment, Maritimes men and women
Median earnings by educational attainment, Maritimes men and women
  Maritimes men Maritimes women
Percentage
Less that high school 15 10
High school or some PSE 26 25
Trades 15 6
College 24 33
University 20 26
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of population, 2016

Men earn more at every level of educational attainment

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Description for Chart 24 - Employment rates by educational attainment and gender, population aged 25 to 64 years, Canada and the Maritime provinces
Employment rates by educational attainment and gender, population aged 25 to 64 years, Canada and the Maritime provinces
  High school Trades College BA or higher
Women
Canada 43,254 38,230 48,599 68,342
Prince Edward Island 34,391 33,784 43,332 60,157
Nova Scotia 35,025 38,547 41,188 59,551
New Brunswick 35,434 32,516 41,312 65,219
Men
Canada 55,774 72,955 67,965 82,082
Prince Edward Island 42,454 53,829 52,992 67,149
Nova Scotia 48,401 60,943 59,236 72,962
New Brunswick 45,895 58,631 57,922 74,252
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of population 2016.

Having children affects young women's participation in the labour market regardless of their education level in the Maritimes, as well as elsewhere in Canada

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Description for Chart 25 - Proportion of  25 to 29 year-old women not in education and not in the labour force, by highest level of education attained and the presence or not of children in the household, Maritimes, 2016-2018
Proportion of  25 to 29 year-old women not in education and not in the labour force, by highest level of education attained and the presence or not of children in the household, Maritimes, 2016-2018
Highest level of education attained Women not in education and not in the labour force - with children Women not in education and not in the labour force - without children
Percentage
All levels of education 26 6
High school diploma and below 36 21
Above high school diploma 20 2
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

Lower rates of participation in the labour market last throughout a woman's working life in the Maritimes

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Description for Chart 26 - Proportion of Canadians not in education and not in the labour force, by sex and age group, Maritimes, 2017-2018
Proportion of Canadians not in education and not in the labour force, by sex and age group, Maritimes, 2017-2018
Age group Women - not in education and not in the labour force Men - not in education and not in the labour force
Percentage
15-19 3 2
20-24 10 9
25-29 12 7
30-34 14 7
35-39 15 8
40-44 14 8
45-49 13 12
50-54 17 14
55-59 30 23
60-64 55 42
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

When taking stock, while rich education data exists, some missing pieces remain…

Modes of learning

Transitions

Equity

Moving Forward: Modernization at Statistics Canada

Enabling efficient data management and access:

Partnerships are the foundation

Partnerships with education system stakeholders:

And new partnerships are being built:

We are well-advanced on the path to modernize education information

 Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)

Integrated datasets:

1. Datasets related to postsecondary students and registered apprentices, PSIS, RAIS, 2008 onwards.

2. Financing programs:

3. Labour Market outcomes

4. Sociodemographic and family background

5.  Pre-PSE experiences

Moving forward:

And we continue to move forward on this path

Data integration

To fill knowledge gaps

Vision for a comprehensive system of education statistics

Quality, detailed, relevant and accessible information for decision-making:

Stages of life-long learning:

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