Economic Insights
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2019

by Guy Gellatly and Elizabeth Richards
Analytical Studies Branch
11-626-X No. 100
Release date: November 4, 2019

This article in the Economic Insights series provides users with an integrated summary of recent changes in output, employment, household demand, international trade and prices. Organized as a statistical summary of major indicators, the report is designed to inform about recent developments in the Canadian economy, highlighting major changes in the economic data during the first half of 2019 and into the summer months. Unless otherwise noted, the tabulations presented in this report are based on seasonally adjusted data available on October 18, 2019.

Overview

Following two quarters of slower growth, economic output strengthened in the second quarter of 2019 as exports advanced. However, final domestic demand was lower as household spending slowed and non-residential business investment declined. Investment in housing increased for the first time since late 2017.

Goods production expanded in the second quarter, following two consecutive quarterly declines. Increases in oil extraction bolstered goods output as oil production limits in Alberta eased. Higher output in resource industries contributed to improvements in business productivity and capacity utilization. The output of services industries strengthened in the second quarter, supported by increases in wholesaling and real estate activity.

Employment continued to strengthen during the first half of 2019, led by gains in full-time work and among private-sector employees. Higher employment among youth and older workers accounted for most of the net gain over the first six months of the year. All of the net increase in employment during the first half was in service industries.

Overall, the pace of real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, has trended lower since mid-2017, while annual employment growth has strengthened since mid-2018 (Chart 1).Note 1

Chart 1 – Output and Employment

Data table for Chart 1 
Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 Real gross domestic product and Employment, calculated using year-over-year change (percent) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Real gross domestic product Employment
year-over-year change (percent)
2010
January 0.8 0.0
February 1.9 0.4
March 3.2 0.6
April 3.4 1.3
May 4.0 1.6
June 4.1 2.1
July 4.1 2.0
August 4.5 2.1
September 3.7 1.7
October 4.1 1.8
November 4.0 1.5
December 4.4 1.8
2011
January 4.1 1.9
February 3.4 1.8
March 3.2 1.8
April 3.3 1.6
May 2.6 1.4
June 2.8 1.2
July 3.4 1.4
August 3.6 1.5
September 3.9 1.7
October 3.4 1.4
November 3.0 1.2
December 2.8 1.2
2012
January 2.4 0.7
February 2.3 0.7
March 2.2 1.1
April 2.6 1.5
May 3.0 1.4
June 2.6 1.3
July 2.1 1.0
August 1.4 1.2
September 1.1 1.3
October 1.1 1.5
November 1.4 1.7
December 0.9 1.8
2013
January 1.6 2.0
February 2.2 2.2
March 2.3 1.5
April 2.1 1.1
May 2.2 1.5
June 1.8 1.4
July 2.2 1.5
August 2.8 1.4
September 3.1 1.2
October 3.7 1.2
November 3.5 1.0
December 3.1 0.7
2014
January 2.5 0.7
February 2.7 0.6
March 2.7 0.9
April 2.7 0.7
May 3.0 0.4
June 3.9 0.5
July 3.5 0.7
August 2.8 0.4
September 2.8 0.5
October 2.6 0.8
November 2.4 0.7
December 3.0 0.6
2015
January 2.5 0.7
February 1.9 0.8
March 1.5 0.8
April 1.3 0.8
May 0.6 1.1
June 0.4 1.0
July 0.5 0.9
August 0.9 1.1
September 0.1 0.9
October 0.0 0.7
November 0.1 0.7
December 0.0 0.9
2016
January 1.0 0.7
February 1.0 0.6
March 0.8 0.7
April 0.9 0.8
May 0.4 0.6
June 0.6 0.6
July 0.9 0.4
August 1.0 0.5
September 1.6 0.9
October 1.5 1.0
November 1.6 1.0
December 1.9 1.1
2017
January 1.7 1.5
February 2.1 1.6
March 2.9 1.5
April 3.3 1.6
May 4.3 1.8
June 4.0 2.0
July 3.6 2.2
August 3.2 2.1
September 3.2 1.8
October 3.3 1.7
November 3.5 2.1
December 3.4 2.3
2018
January 2.7 1.5
February 2.8 1.5
March 2.6 1.6
April 2.0 1.5
May 2.1 1.2
June 1.9 1.2
July 2.1 1.3
August 2.3 0.9
September 2.0 1.3
October 2.2 1.2
November 1.6 1.3
December 1.1 1.1
2019
January 1.6 1.8
February 1.0 2.0
March 1.3 1.8
April 1.7 2.3
May 1.5 2.4
June 1.5 2.3
July 1.3 1.9
August Note ...: not applicable 2.5
September Note ...: not applicable 2.4

Economic growth strengthened as final domestic demand edged lower

Real GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2019, as output expanded at the fastest pace in two years. Real GDP rose 0.9% in the second quarter, following a 0.1% gain in the first. Final domestic demand, which reflects total consumption and investment activity, edged down 0.2% in the second quarter, the second decline in the last three quarters.Note 2

Higher exports were mainly responsible for stronger economic growth in the second quarter, as export volumes expanded at the fastest pace in five years (Chart 2). Household spending moderated in the second quarter, after a notable gain in the first. Lower non-residential business investment weighed on growth in the second quarter, after advancing to start the year. Business investment in housing rose in the second quarter, following five consecutive quarterly declines.

In the United States, real GDP rose 2.0% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, after advancing 3.1% in the first. Slower U.S. growth in the second quarter reflected weaker exports and business investment, as economic growth in Canada outpaced growth in the United States for the first time in two years.

Chart 2 – Contributions to real GDP growth, selected components

Data table for Chart 2 
Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2. The information is grouped by Selected components (appearing as row headers), Q1 2019 and Q2 2019, calculated using percentage-point contributions units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Selected components Q1 2019 Q2 2019
percentage-point contributions
Gross domestic product at market prices 0.130 0.915
Household expenditure 0.407 0.078
Residential structures -0.073 0.096
Non-residential business investment 0.310 -0.404
Exports -0.261 1.012
Imports -0.714 0.350

Exports advanced at the fastest pace in five years

The volume of goods exported from Canada rose 3.7% in the second quarter, after declining 1.3% in the first. Higher exports of energy products, supported by increased shipments of crude oil and natural gas, were responsible for almost one-third of overall increase in goods exports in the second quarter. Increased shipments of agricultural products, motor vehicles and aircraft also contributed to the gain (Chart 3).

Imports of goods declined 0.8% in the second quarter, following a 2.6% gain in the first. Import volumes have declined in three of the last four quarters. Lower imports of aircraft led the decline in the second quarter, after advancing to start the year. Higher imports of energy products and autos partly offset the decline.

Chart 3 – Real gross domestic product, selected aggregates

Data table for Chart 3 
Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3. The information is grouped by Selected aggregates (appearing as row headers), Household expenditure, Government current expenditure, Non-residential business investment, Goods exports and Housing, calculated using index (first quarter of 2010=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Selected aggregates Household expenditure Government current expenditure Non-residential business investment Goods exports Housing
index (first quarter of 2010=100)
2010
First quarter 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Second quarter 100.8 99.9 104.8 104.0 98.8
Third quarter 101.7 100.2 108.7 103.7 97.0
Fourth quarter 102.6 100.9 114.1 106.5 96.3
2011
First quarter 102.8 101.0 117.3 106.9 98.2
Second quarter 103.2 101.4 120.2 104.5 98.1
Third quarter 103.7 101.8 120.6 111.1 100.6
Fourth quarter 104.3 102.1 124.2 112.4 101.6
2012
First quarter 104.9 102.2 127.1 112.1 106.1
Second quarter 105.1 101.9 131.1 112.0 105.5
Third quarter 105.7 102.6 131.4 111.3 104.6
Fourth quarter 106.3 102.5 134.3 110.9 104.6
2013
First quarter 106.9 101.4 136.7 113.1 103.7
Second quarter 107.9 101.0 138.1 115.2 105.3
Third quarter 108.7 101.5 139.0 113.7 104.6
Fourth quarter 109.4 102.1 141.0 115.7 104.5
2014
First quarter 109.8 102.4 142.5 114.7 103.2
Second quarter 110.8 102.0 143.9 122.3 105.6
Third quarter 111.6 102.0 145.9 124.5 108.0
Fourth quarter 112.4 101.7 148.8 124.8 108.3
2015
First quarter 112.6 103.1 136.2 123.1 109.1
Second quarter 113.2 103.2 130.6 125.1 109.2
Third quarter 114.0 103.8 125.7 128.1 111.3
Fourth quarter 114.8 103.5 122.6 126.7 111.8
2016
First quarter 115.1 104.3 117.4 129.3 113.5
Second quarter 115.5 105.7 115.7 122.7 114.4
Third quarter 116.4 105.4 118.0 126.6 114.1
Fourth quarter 117.3 105.9 112.7 127.3 114.9
2017
First quarter 118.5 106.5 116.2 127.6 117.2
Second quarter 119.9 107.2 118.0 129.5 115.9
Third quarter 120.9 107.7 119.5 125.1 115.6
Fourth quarter 121.7 108.8 121.8 127.0 119.1
2018
First quarter 122.0 109.3 123.9 127.6 116.5
Second quarter 122.6 110.5 123.6 132.1 116.4
Third quarter 123.0 111.2 119.8 132.6 115.5
Fourth quarter 123.3 111.8 116.9 132.2 112.4
2019
First quarter 124.2 112.2 120.8 130.5 111.2
Second quarter 124.4 112.9 115.6 135.3 112.8

Growth in household spending moderated to a seven-year low

Household spending edged up 0.1% in the second quarter, the slowest pace of quarterly growth in seven years, after advancing 0.7% in the first. Higher spending on services, led by insurance and financial services, was largely offset by lower outlays on durable and non-durable goods. Spending on autos was down in the second quarter, the fifth decline in the last six quarters.

Lower business investment weighed on economic growth

Non-residential business investment declined 4.3% in the second quarter, following a 3.4% gain in the first. Following a partial recovery in 2017, business investment has generally trended lower since mid-2018, and has declined in four of the last six quarters. Combined outlays on non-residential structures and M&E remained over 20% below peak levels at the end of 2014 (Chart 4).

Chart 4 – Business gross fixed capital formation

Data table for Chart 4 
Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4 Total business gross fixed capital formation, Residential structures, Non-residential structures, Machinery and equipment and Intellectual property products, calculated using index (first quarter of 2014=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Total business gross fixed capital formation Residential structures Non-residential structures Machinery and equipment Intellectual property products
index (first quarter of 2014=100)
2014
First quarter 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Second quarter 101.2 102.3 100.8 101.4 98.5
Third quarter 102.7 104.7 102.0 103.3 97.9
Fourth quarter 104.2 105.0 103.9 105.5 100.9
2015
First quarter 98.6 105.7 93.6 99.4 92.9
Second quarter 95.8 105.9 89.2 96.4 87.2
Third quarter 94.3 107.9 85.1 94.3 85.3
Fourth quarter 93.3 108.4 81.8 94.1 86.2
2016
First quarter 91.6 110.0 78.1 90.6 84.6
Second quarter 91.2 110.9 75.3 92.4 84.5
Third quarter 91.7 110.6 80.0 88.3 81.4
Fourth quarter 89.8 111.4 74.6 87.6 80.6
2017
First quarter 92.2 113.6 75.9 92.0 83.6
Second quarter 92.5 112.4 77.0 93.6 84.1
Third quarter 93.1 112.1 78.7 93.6 84.1
Fourth quarter 95.0 115.4 79.6 96.4 83.5
2018
First quarter 95.4 112.9 79.4 101.3 87.1
Second quarter 95.2 112.9 78.5 102.3 87.2
Third quarter 93.4 111.9 76.8 97.9 86.5
Fourth quarter 91.4 108.9 73.9 97.3 89.2
2019
First quarter 92.5 107.8 73.3 106.4 88.0
Second quarter 91.0 109.3 73.0 96.5 88.5

Business investment in non-residential structures edged down 0.4% in the second quarter, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. Outlays on engineering structures have steadily declined over this period. Spending on non-residential buildings rose during the first half of 2019, partly moderating the decline. Total business outlays on non-residential structures in the second quarter were about 30% below levels reached at the end of 2014.

Business investment in M&E declined 9.3% in the second quarter, offsetting gains in the first. Lower outlays on aircraft and other transportation equipment contributed to the decline in M&E spending in the second quarter, after spending on these assets rose substantially early in the year. Outlays on industrial machinery and equipment also declined in the second quarter, and were down 26% from levels at the end of 2014.

Business investment in intellectual property products rose 0.6% in the second quarter, following a 1.3% decline in the first. Gains in the second quarter were relatively broad-based, led by higher spending on software. Total business investment in intellectual property assets has generally trended higher since early 2017, but remained about 12% lower than levels at the end of 2014. Spending on mineral exploration remained about 50% below late 2014 levels.

Outlays on housing rose for the first time since late 2017

Investment in housing rose 1.4% in the second quarter of 2019, following five consecutive quarterly declines. Higher spending on ownership transfer costs—a measure of the volume of activity in resale markets—accounted for about one-half of the increase in residential investment, supported by higher spending on new construction and renovations. Since the introduction of new mortgage regulations in January 2018, ownership transfer costs have generally trended lower, and remain down about 12% from levels at the end of 2017.

Resources supported gains in productivity and capacity utilization

Business sector labour productivity rose 0.2% in the second quarter, following a 0.4% gain in the first. Productivity gains in agriculture, forestry, and mining and oil and gas extraction were mainly responsible for the overall increase. Industrial capacity utilization rose to 83.3% in the second quarter, following three consecutive quarterly declines. Higher capacity utilization in the energy sector led the gain as capacity utilization in oil and gas extraction rose to 87.3%, the highest level in more than a decade. Capacity utilization also increased in manufacturing.

Improvements in the terms of trade bolstered income growth during the first two quarters of 2019 after weighing on income in late 2018. Following a 1.4% increase to start the year, nominal GDP rose 2.0% in the second quarter as wages and salaries and corporate earnings strengthened.

Goods production expanded after recent declines

The output of goods-producing industries strengthened in the second quarter, following two consecutive quarterly declines. Increases in oil and gas extraction contributed to higher goods output as production curtailments in Alberta eased (Chart 5). Higher output among firms that provide support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction also supported growth in the second quarter. The output of service industries continued to advance during the first half, strengthening in the second quarter. Increased activity in real estate and wholesale industries contributed to recent gains.

Chart 5 – Real gross domestic product, selected industries

Data table for Chart 5 
Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas , Construction, Manufacturing and Professional, scientific and technical services, calculated using index (January 2010=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas Construction Manufacturing Professional, scientific and technical services
index (January 2010=100)
2010
January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 103.1 100.5 101.3 100.0
March 104.5 100.9 102.9 100.4
April 104.0 101.3 102.8 100.5
May 109.2 101.1 103.3 100.3
June 108.5 101.6 104.6 100.4
July 108.3 101.8 104.6 101.2
August 107.9 102.4 104.5 101.0
September 106.2 102.7 103.8 101.3
October 110.0 103.1 103.7 101.9
November 111.4 103.4 103.1 102.5
December 114.0 103.6 104.8 103.2
2011
January 111.4 104.6 105.8 103.8
February 110.9 105.0 104.9 104.3
March 113.4 104.4 105.7 104.6
April 114.2 104.2 105.7 104.7
May 110.0 104.0 105.1 105.0
June 111.9 105.1 105.5 105.9
July 115.3 105.8 107.1 105.9
August 119.3 106.5 106.9 106.4
September 119.5 107.0 108.1 107.0
October 117.5 107.1 108.3 107.6
November 116.6 107.6 108.9 108.0
December 116.9 108.7 110.7 108.5
2012
January 116.7 109.6 110.2 108.3
February 113.6 110.8 108.3 108.4
March 113.4 112.1 108.8 108.2
April 114.6 113.9 109.6 108.4
May 114.5 113.9 109.3 108.6
June 112.4 114.1 109.3 108.6
July 110.5 114.5 109.3 109.5
August 108.4 115.0 108.7 109.5
September 109.6 115.6 107.5 109.6
October 110.5 116.7 106.6 109.3
November 112.4 117.1 107.5 109.1
December 113.7 117.5 106.2 109.5
2013
January 114.8 117.5 107.3 109.8
February 117.7 118.1 107.6 109.7
March 118.2 118.8 108.1 110.1
April 117.5 119.6 107.3 110.7
May 116.4 120.1 107.4 111.4
June 115.3 117.2 107.3 111.5
July 117.3 119.7 107.1 111.6
August 119.3 120.1 107.7 112.2
September 120.2 119.7 109.1 113.3
October 121.6 120.1 110.4 113.5
November 121.7 120.3 110.0 114.1
December 121.0 119.0 107.7 114.6
2014
January 121.9 120.1 108.2 114.1
February 124.4 120.8 109.8 114.7
March 127.0 120.3 109.0 115.5
April 129.9 120.0 109.4 116.2
May 130.1 121.6 111.2 116.7
June 131.6 122.2 112.2 118.3
July 128.5 123.2 113.1 119.5
August 125.4 122.8 111.7 119.8
September 128.9 123.2 112.5 119.2
October 130.1 124.7 112.6 119.0
November 130.2 124.9 111.7 119.5
December 128.6 124.3 113.9 118.9
2015
January 129.3 122.9 112.5 118.7
February 126.7 121.4 111.2 118.2
March 121.8 120.0 112.3 117.8
April 120.1 119.5 112.1 117.5
May 120.5 120.4 111.9 117.3
June 124.6 119.6 110.8 116.9
July 128.0 119.2 111.4 116.8
August 129.5 119.3 113.1 116.9
September 122.7 118.5 112.0 116.4
October 124.0 118.2 111.7 116.6
November 123.8 117.7 111.7 116.8
December 123.1 117.2 112.4 116.9
2016
January 123.6 116.9 113.7 117.1
February 121.7 116.5 112.6 116.9
March 118.2 115.2 112.4 117.2
April 115.9 115.0 112.4 117.1
May 108.4 113.8 110.3 117.3
June 113.4 112.9 112.3 117.3
July 119.3 113.1 112.5 117.5
August 120.3 112.2 113.0 117.4
September 123.0 113.1 113.5 117.9
October 124.0 113.2 112.0 118.1
November 127.1 113.8 113.4 118.1
December 128.1 114.6 114.5 118.2
2017
January 129.3 115.7 115.3 118.5
February 128.3 116.6 114.9 119.1
March 127.3 116.8 115.7 119.6
April 130.0 118.1 116.1 120.2
May 133.5 117.1 117.2 120.7
June 131.8 119.2 118.5 120.4
July 132.4 119.6 117.8 120.7
August 132.5 119.9 116.4 121.0
September 132.7 121.3 116.8 121.2
October 129.0 122.1 116.6 121.2
November 131.1 122.4 118.7 121.9
December 131.9 122.3 119.4 122.7
2018
January 132.0 121.6 119.0 122.2
February 136.1 122.8 119.4 122.7
March 140.6 122.4 119.8 123.1
April 139.5 122.1 119.0 123.7
May 140.4 122.8 118.5 124.0
June 138.9 121.7 120.4 124.4
July 140.6 120.8 121.3 124.6
August 141.0 119.3 120.9 124.9
September 138.5 117.8 121.0 125.3
October 138.2 117.3 121.4 125.8
November 138.1 116.5 120.6 126.3
December 137.2 115.0 119.8 127.1
2019
January 132.9 116.7 121.0 127.4
February 129.9 115.7 120.5 127.7
March 133.6 115.8 121.3 127.8
April 139.9 115.3 120.3 128.4
May 138.8 116.4 121.7 128.7
June 139.3 117.1 120.1 129.2
July 134.5 116.3 119.9 130.3

After seven consecutive monthly declines to end 2018, construction output stabilized during the first half of 2019, increasing in four of the first six months of the year. Output in the construction sector at mid-year was 1.8% higher than at year-end, supported by increases in both non-residential and residential activity. After a notable gain to start the year, engineering construction declined from February to June. Output in this sector at mid-year was similar to levels in December 2018.

Manufacturing output rose in three of the first six months of 2019. Factory output at mid-year was similar to levels at the end of 2018, as increases in durable manufacturing offset lower non-durable production. The output of fabricated metal manufacturers at mid-year was 3.5% higher than in December 2018, while primary metal manufacturing, which includes steel and aluminum producers, was down 5.1%. Machinery manufacturing output at mid-year was similar to year-end levels. Wood products and paper manufacturing were both down during the first half of 2019, reflecting sizable declines towards mid-year.

Automotive and parts production strengthened in May and June, as output returned to normal levels after temporary shutdowns and atypical production schedules affected production in April. At mid-year, motor vehicles and parts manufacturing was 7% higher than at year-end.

Service industries continued to advance during the first half of 2019 as output strengthened in the second quarter. The output of wholesalers trended higher in the first half, supported by increases in personal and household goods, and motor vehicles and parts. The activities of real estate agents and brokers advanced steadily from March to June as the housing market strengthened. At mid-year, the output of real estate agents and brokers was 8% higher than at the end of 2018, but about 16% below levels at the end of 2017, prior to changes in mortgage borrowing requirements.

Professional, scientific and technical services continued to expand steadily during the first half of 2019. As of June, output in this sector had risen for 17 consecutive months, supported by gains in computer systems design and architectural and engineering services. Retail trade increased in three of the first six months of the year. Retail output in June was similar to levels at year-end.

Oil sands extraction rebounded as production curtailments eased

Oil sands extraction strengthened during the first half of 2019 as monthly oil production limits established by the Government of Alberta eased towards mid-year. After consecutive declines early in the year, oil sands extraction rebounded in March and April (Chart 6). Output in April rose 11% as facilities scaled up production in response to easing production restrictions. Oil sands output at mid-year was 3% higher than levels at year-end 2018. Conventional oil and gas extraction also advanced during the first half of the year, posting four consecutive monthly gains from March to June. Conventional output at mid-year was up 4.7% from levels in December 2018.

Following three consecutive monthly declines to begin the year, businesses that provide support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction, including rigging and drilling services, increased output into mid-year. In June, production in this sector was 3.5% higher than at year-end 2018, but down about 36% from levels at the end of 2014.

Chart 6 – Real gross domestic product, energy-related industries

Data table for Chart 6 
Data table for Chart 6
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 6 Oil and gas extraction (except oil sands), Oil sands extraction, Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction, Crude oil and other pipeline transportation and Petroleum refineries, calculated using index (January 2010=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) Oil sands extraction Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction Crude oil and other pipeline transportation Petroleum refineries
index (January 2010=100)
2010
January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 98.6 111.7 108.4 99.3 93.7
March 100.0 115.9 99.2 106.9 93.7
April 100.2 118.8 96.4 104.7 90.6
May 102.1 127.3 108.3 107.3 93.6
June 102.1 128.0 104.4 107.2 97.4
July 103.0 123.3 104.4 109.6 94.3
August 105.8 119.9 98.3 109.8 92.9
September 104.4 115.9 89.8 97.8 96.0
October 103.6 122.2 102.9 100.8 83.2
November 103.7 130.8 103.1 107.1 88.3
December 105.7 134.9 108.4 106.9 91.2
2011
January 105.7 128.7 99.1 119.3 87.3
February 103.2 130.5 98.9 125.2 86.8
March 104.8 129.0 116.1 121.0 87.8
April 105.3 133.2 113.3 116.1 89.1
May 103.9 119.2 114.4 115.4 78.1
June 102.1 128.0 114.7 117.8 82.6
July 104.9 132.7 116.7 123.1 83.3
August 107.1 135.4 137.1 129.6 86.0
September 107.5 136.6 137.1 129.7 94.2
October 106.6 133.1 136.9 129.7 90.3
November 105.1 133.3 136.1 127.1 88.5
December 105.2 134.5 132.2 129.2 87.6
2012
January 104.7 139.4 131.2 135.8 86.6
February 102.8 136.8 130.5 133.9 89.3
March 102.3 128.0 137.3 134.3 86.2
April 102.0 136.9 130.3 138.9 91.0
May 98.9 145.7 121.0 142.7 87.6
June 95.5 139.9 122.7 142.2 86.5
July 93.3 141.3 118.5 140.4 90.5
August 91.4 140.7 115.9 138.7 88.9
September 91.6 141.2 120.6 135.2 87.0
October 96.3 139.9 116.0 126.6 93.5
November 99.7 134.6 116.8 134.3 92.7
December 97.7 144.0 121.2 140.6 92.1
2013
January 98.4 140.2 131.0 141.7 93.3
February 99.3 142.4 138.0 143.7 89.1
March 100.1 147.1 131.6 146.1 90.9
April 99.6 146.2 127.8 143.7 89.0
May 101.6 138.6 123.3 141.1 80.0
June 102.4 142.5 114.6 142.6 94.0
July 103.5 143.8 120.0 139.5 88.3
August 103.9 153.8 123.1 145.6 90.8
September 103.9 151.3 126.8 145.8 94.2
October 102.6 153.6 131.0 150.3 89.0
November 103.1 159.1 122.7 148.4 94.0
December 104.5 159.4 112.4 140.8 88.9
2014
January 105.2 157.3 120.9 141.5 89.6
February 107.1 157.5 126.0 145.6 95.4
March 106.6 166.5 131.8 144.9 84.3
April 106.0 172.6 140.1 143.9 87.8
May 107.0 173.8 141.0 152.5 91.4
June 108.4 175.9 136.1 156.5 102.7
July 107.4 173.2 127.6 152.2 97.7
August 103.5 171.7 121.7 151.5 93.8
September 105.7 177.4 130.0 151.5 87.7
October 106.6 183.4 127.5 151.6 90.9
November 107.4 180.9 134.0 153.2 96.5
December 105.6 179.5 132.1 154.2 97.3
2015
January 106.0 192.0 108.0 149.6 94.5
February 105.0 197.8 95.2 154.5 92.4
March 102.3 196.2 77.2 151.0 95.6
April 101.1 191.2 78.3 162.7 96.6
May 99.0 186.3 89.6 156.9 96.8
June 98.6 197.3 99.9 160.7 88.9
July 98.2 218.8 95.2 168.8 89.5
August 98.9 221.9 100.9 177.4 94.4
September 99.1 191.2 93.8 170.6 91.6
October 97.6 203.3 95.7 164.5 92.0
November 99.1 206.3 92.4 170.4 88.4
December 99.7 207.3 84.1 175.8 92.1
2016
January 98.9 208.7 86.5 179.4 93.6
February 100.2 204.7 77.3 182.0 92.5
March 100.7 206.4 63.5 174.1 94.6
April 101.6 199.2 58.8 166.2 95.8
May 103.0 146.0 60.4 159.0 83.1
June 102.9 168.6 62.1 162.8 92.6
July 102.9 209.9 63.7 168.0 98.5
August 105.4 210.0 64.2 179.6 94.1
September 106.3 219.3 67.2 179.2 91.0
October 102.5 220.9 73.3 175.9 83.9
November 102.4 229.3 76.2 181.9 92.2
December 99.9 215.9 90.0 179.6 91.5
2017
January 102.0 218.9 89.8 178.2 91.5
February 100.5 224.5 91.3 179.7 92.7
March 104.4 214.9 92.0 179.3 95.1
April 105.2 209.5 100.1 179.7 95.9
May 108.3 225.7 95.6 186.8 98.0
June 109.4 220.8 91.4 185.6 100.1
July 108.5 224.0 89.9 193.2 97.6
August 105.2 230.8 86.3 189.9 93.5
September 108.5 227.7 85.0 192.5 100.7
October 110.1 209.3 80.8 189.4 101.4
November 109.1 225.8 84.5 175.3 96.0
December 107.9 238.3 83.8 181.7 97.5
2018
January 109.6 225.3 90.6 184.9 99.0
February 111.9 232.0 95.3 187.5 99.6
March 113.2 242.1 104.8 192.1 96.2
April 114.9 237.6 107.7 192.8 74.9
May 114.9 249.5 105.2 193.6 74.1
June 116.3 245.2 98.0 194.3 92.4
July 117.9 237.7 102.6 193.6 100.1
August 118.7 244.8 98.8 195.5 97.6
September 115.1 235.5 95.9 193.3 99.5
October 116.5 247.7 92.9 193.2 100.6
November 113.5 246.0 96.1 193.8 97.1
December 116.7 243.7 81.5 193.4 90.1
2019
January 115.3 232.3 79.7 191.3 88.1
February 113.5 227.9 79.3 191.0 89.9
March 117.0 239.6 77.5 192.9 90.2
April 118.3 265.7 83.3 197.7 88.2
May 119.3 249.6 83.5 201.0 89.7
June 122.1 250.7 84.4 204.5 90.0
July 116.3 248.2 74.6 204.0 87.6

The output of crude oil pipelines also rose during the first half of 2019, posting four-consecutive gains from March to June. Output at mid-year was 6% higher than at year-end. Monthly exports of crude oil and equivalent products by pipeline averaged 98.2 million barrels during the first six months of 2019, compared to 95.5 million barrels during the last half of 2018.

More recently, real GDP was unchanged in July, as declines in mining, oil and gas extraction, and construction offset broad-based gains among services.

Employment continued to strengthen on full-time gains

The pace of employment growth, measured year-over-year, strengthened during the first half of 2019, accelerating to 2.4% in May. Employment rose by 248,000 during the first six months of the year, led by gains in full-time work and among private sector employees (Chart 7). Higher employment among younger workers (aged 15 to 24) and older workers (55 and older) together accounted for most of the overall increase in the first half. All of the net increase was in service industries (Chart 8).

Chart 7 – Type of employment

Data table for Chart 7 
Data table for Chart 7
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 7 Total, Full-time and Part-time, calculated using year-over-year change (thousands of persons) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Total Full-time Part-time
year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2010
January 4.9 -67.4 72.3
February 74.7 118.4 -43.7
March 105.4 89.3 16.1
April 225.1 138.3 86.7
May 266.0 230.7 35.2
June 345.6 303.0 42.6
July 336.3 118.4 218.0
August 342.3 206.9 135.4
September 279.1 134.8 144.3
October 306.8 159.5 147.3
November 257.4 113.6 143.9
December 307.9 180.3 127.5
2011
January 315.4 209.7 105.6
February 294.9 96.4 198.5
March 305.4 260.8 44.5
April 265.0 236.1 28.9
May 232.9 193.8 39.2
June 210.2 186.6 23.6
July 238.8 382.9 -144.1
August 250.9 353.2 -102.2
September 294.5 360.4 -65.8
October 239.3 232.8 6.5
November 202.6 269.2 -66.7
December 200.8 231.2 -30.2
2012
January 121.9 190.4 -68.5
February 122.9 229.0 -106.1
March 194.0 212.3 -18.2
April 250.7 250.8 -0.1
May 246.7 225.5 21.2
June 222.6 237.4 -14.8
July 179.2 213.0 -33.9
August 200.6 203.5 -2.9
September 227.3 188.4 38.8
October 266.7 288.2 -21.4
November 301.4 253.4 48.0
December 312.1 273.2 38.8
2013
January 351.4 289.5 62.1
February 377.6 327.2 50.4
March 253.0 195.4 57.6
April 192.9 183.2 9.7
May 253.6 275.1 -21.6
June 236.1 199.9 36.3
July 255.5 159.2 96.4
August 247.4 153.5 93.8
September 216.8 167.6 49.2
October 206.6 172.5 34.1
November 183.5 136.4 47.2
December 130.9 52.4 78.5
2014
January 129.4 64.7 64.7
February 114.0 72.0 42.0
March 160.7 105.6 55.2
April 119.4 52.2 67.2
May 66.8 -70.5 137.4
June 86.2 27.5 58.6
July 123.1 22.3 100.8
August 67.3 -6.2 73.4
September 92.4 24.1 68.3
October 138.5 28.1 110.4
November 115.5 67.1 48.3
December 108.2 145.5 -37.4
2015
January 128.3 116.6 11.7
February 136.8 128.7 8.1
March 133.8 126.5 7.2
April 136.0 171.9 -35.9
May 192.2 234.8 -42.6
June 174.2 235.2 -61.0
July 168.8 273.9 -105.1
August 199.0 323.8 -124.7
September 166.3 196.5 -30.2
October 130.8 174.3 -43.5
November 127.2 202.0 -74.8
December 152.0 148.9 3.2
2016
January 119.6 164.2 -44.7
February 108.9 59.7 49.2
March 121.5 102.0 19.5
April 146.9 80.6 66.3
May 110.5 105.6 5.0
June 108.2 24.5 83.7
July 68.2 -35.6 103.8
August 98.5 -17.8 116.3
September 160.3 73.6 86.7
October 174.3 33.3 141.0
November 178.2 -31.1 209.3
December 198.3 63.6 134.7
2017
January 276.2 77.1 199.1
February 290.0 253.6 36.4
March 275.0 221.9 53.2
April 282.9 192.6 90.3
May 328.1 232.5 95.5
June 360.9 263.2 97.7
July 391.9 360.4 31.5
August 384.0 225.1 158.8
September 325.0 294.2 30.7
October 318.1 405.4 -87.3
November 384.9 440.1 -55.2
December 417.4 386.8 30.6
2018
January 276.2 429.3 -153.1
February 270.1 276.2 -6.1
March 289.7 338.3 -48.7
April 274.3 379.8 -105.5
May 223.4 283.0 -59.6
June 215.4 280.0 -64.6
July 241.0 200.4 40.6
August 167.3 323.0 -155.6
September 236.9 215.6 21.5
October 221.4 170.1 51.4
November 249.6 231.9 17.7
December 195.8 194.5 1.3
2019
January 327.2 165.6 161.7
February 369.1 266.0 103.1
March 331.6 203.7 127.8
April 426.4 247.9 178.5
May 453.1 299.0 154.1
June 421.1 314.5 106.7
July 353.0 325.8 27.3
August 471.3 306.1 165.2
September 455.9 386.0 69.8

Chart 8 – Employment by sector

Data table for Chart 8 
Data table for Chart 8
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 8 Total, Goods industries and Services industries, calculated using year-over-year change (thousands of persons) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Total Goods industries Services industries
year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2010
January 4.9 -118.8 123.7
February 74.7 -65.9 140.5
March 105.4 -55.1 160.6
April 225.1 -5.3 230.4
May 266.0 51.7 214.3
June 345.6 66.7 278.9
July 336.3 50.0 286.4
August 342.3 47.3 295.0
September 279.1 0.9 278.2
October 306.8 18.1 288.8
November 257.4 35.1 222.3
December 307.9 55.0 252.8
2011
January 315.4 78.2 237.2
February 294.9 86.1 208.9
March 305.4 104.8 200.5
April 265.0 91.1 173.9
May 232.9 76.1 156.9
June 210.2 67.4 142.9
July 238.8 73.1 165.7
August 250.9 72.9 178.0
September 294.6 84.3 210.2
October 239.3 63.7 175.6
November 202.6 70.7 131.9
December 200.8 59.9 141.0
2012
January 121.9 22.0 99.8
February 122.9 31.7 91.2
March 194.0 36.0 158.0
April 250.7 81.5 169.2
May 246.7 73.1 173.5
June 222.7 84.0 138.6
July 179.2 91.0 88.1
August 200.6 92.5 108.1
September 227.2 110.8 116.5
October 266.7 107.6 159.0
November 301.4 96.2 205.2
December 312.1 103.6 208.5
2013
January 351.4 92.5 259.0
February 377.6 75.6 302.0
March 253.0 58.6 194.4
April 192.9 28.3 164.5
May 253.6 32.4 221.2
June 236.0 21.7 214.3
July 255.5 14.0 241.6
August 247.4 16.2 231.2
September 216.8 -0.9 217.7
October 206.6 18.2 188.5
November 183.5 -10.6 194.1
December 130.9 -50.1 181.0
2014
January 129.4 2.7 126.8
February 114.0 -7.4 121.3
March 160.7 17.9 142.8
April 119.4 -27.3 146.8
May 66.8 -45.8 112.6
June 86.2 -19.9 106.2
July 123.1 -20.9 144.0
August 67.3 -43.8 111.0
September 92.4 -24.4 116.8
October 138.5 -12.5 151.0
November 115.5 -9.2 124.8
December 108.2 25.2 83.0
2015
January 128.3 4.0 124.3
February 136.8 -29.4 166.3
March 133.8 -58.6 192.4
April 136.0 -31.0 167.0
May 192.2 2.4 189.8
June 174.2 -11.5 185.6
July 168.8 -23.3 192.1
August 199.0 -4.1 203.1
September 166.3 -19.7 186.0
October 130.8 -64.7 195.5
November 127.2 -10.5 137.5
December 152.0 -20.7 172.7
2016
January 119.6 -47.8 167.3
February 108.9 26.3 82.6
March 121.5 -2.9 124.4
April 146.9 -29.5 176.4
May 110.5 -31.0 141.5
June 108.2 -76.2 184.4
July 68.2 -59.1 127.4
August 98.5 -36.5 135.1
September 160.3 -31.5 191.8
October 174.3 3.7 170.6
November 178.2 -65.4 243.7
December 198.3 -66.7 265.0
2017
January 276.2 -27.7 303.9
February 290.0 -81.2 371.2
March 275.0 -25.0 300.0
April 282.9 18.0 264.9
May 328.1 27.1 301.0
June 360.9 73.7 287.2
July 391.9 84.8 307.1
August 384.0 62.8 321.2
September 325.0 53.4 271.5
October 318.1 78.5 239.7
November 384.9 129.6 255.3
December 417.4 133.0 284.4
2018
January 276.2 108.6 167.7
February 270.1 110.2 159.9
March 289.7 114.3 175.4
April 274.3 83.4 190.9
May 223.4 42.2 181.2
June 215.4 73.1 142.4
July 241.0 25.6 215.3
August 167.3 3.3 164.0
September 236.9 49.1 187.9
October 221.4 5.3 216.1
November 249.6 9.4 240.1
December 195.8 25.7 170.1
2019
January 327.2 0.6 326.6
February 369.0 21.4 347.6
March 331.5 2.2 329.3
April 426.4 54.5 371.9
May 453.1 82.4 370.7
June 421.1 12.1 408.9
July 353 43.3 309.7
August 471.3 72.4 398.9
September 455.9 35.4 420.5

Employment gains in Ontario during the first six months of the year accounted for just over one-half of the net increase for Canada as a whole. Gains in Ontario were concentrated in full-time work and in service industries. Higher employment in professional, scientific and technical services contributed to gains in the province . Employment in Quebec rose by 47,000 during the first half, also on increases in full-time, while employment in British Columbia continued to edge higher. Increases in services industries supported employment growth in both provinces.

The national unemployment rate edged lower towards mid-year, declining to a record low of 5.4% in May, before edging up to 5.5% in June. The unemployment rates in Quebec and Ontario averaged 5.1% and 5.7% respectively over the first six months of the year. Alberta’s rate edged higher in early 2019, rising to 7.3% in February, before declining to 6.6% in June, similar to levels observed in mid-2018. Unemployment in British Columbia averaged 4.6% from January to June.

Chart 9 – Employment and unemployment rates, persons aged 25 to 54

Data table for Chart 9 
Data table for Chart 9
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 9 Employment rate and Unemployment rate, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Employment rate Unemployment rate
percent
2010
January 80.4 7.1
February 80.4 7.1
March 80.4 7.1
April 80.6 7.0
May 80.6 6.9
June 80.7 6.9
July 80.5 7.0
August 80.5 7.0
September 80.4 7.0
October 80.4 6.6
November 80.5 6.6
December 80.5 6.5
2011
January 80.8 6.5
February 80.8 6.5
March 81.1 6.3
April 81.0 6.3
May 80.9 6.2
June 81.1 6.3
July 81.1 6.1
August 81.2 6.1
September 81.2 6.1
October 81.0 6.2
November 80.9 6.4
December 81.0 6.2
2012
January 80.9 6.3
February 81.0 6.1
March 81.0 6.2
April 81.4 6.1
May 81.4 6.2
June 81.6 5.8
July 81.4 6.0
August 81.5 5.9
September 81.7 5.9
October 81.6 6.1
November 81.7 5.9
December 81.9 5.9
2013
January 81.7 5.9
February 81.7 5.8
March 81.5 6.0
April 81.6 5.8
May 81.7 5.8
June 81.7 5.8
July 81.7 5.8
August 81.6 5.8
September 81.6 5.9
October 81.5 5.8
November 81.5 5.8
December 81.3 6.1
2014
January 81.4 5.8
February 81.4 5.9
March 81.5 5.8
April 81.1 5.8
May 81.0 5.8
June 80.9 6.0
July 80.9 6.1
August 81.1 5.8
September 81.2 5.5
October 81.4 5.5
November 81.5 5.5
December 81.5 5.4
2015
January 81.5 5.5
February 81.5 5.6
March 81.3 5.8
April 81.3 5.6
May 81.5 5.7
June 81.5 5.8
July 81.6 5.6
August 81.5 5.9
September 81.5 5.9
October 81.3 6.0
November 81.3 6.2
December 81.2 6.2
2016
January 81.3 6.2
February 81.2 6.3
March 81.3 6.1
April 81.4 6.1
May 81.4 6.0
June 81.4 5.8
July 81.3 5.8
August 81.2 5.9
September 81.3 5.8
October 81.4 5.8
November 81.6 5.9
December 81.7 5.9
2017
January 82.1 5.6
February 82.1 5.6
March 82.3 5.6
April 82.1 5.6
May 82.3 5.6
June 82.4 5.4
July 82.3 5.5
August 82.4 5.3
September 82.3 5.4
October 82.4 5.3
November 82.3 5.0
December 82.5 4.9
2018
January 82.3 5.0
February 82.5 4.9
March 82.5 4.9
April 82.6 4.9
May 82.4 5.0
June 82.5 5.1
July 82.6 5.0
August 82.5 5.2
September 82.9 5.0
October 83.0 4.9
November 83.2 4.6
December 83.3 4.7
2019
January 83.3 4.9
February 83.4 4.8
March 83.1 4.8
April 83.2 4.9
May 83.5 4.4
June 83.3 4.7
July 83.2 4.7
August 83.3 4.7
September 83.6 4.3

The employment rate, the number of persons employed as a percentage of the working-age population, edged higher in the first half of 2019, supported by gains among younger and older workers. The national employment rate averaged 62.0% during the first six months of the year, up from 61.6% during the last half of 2018. Among core-aged workers, the employment rate remained above 83% throughout the first half, averaging 83.3% from January to June (Chart 9). In Ontario, the employment rate among core-aged workers averaged 82.1% in the first half, compared to 85.3% in Quebec and 84.8% in British Columbia. The employment rate among core-aged workers in Alberta averaged 83.3% during this period.

More recently, employment rose 110,000 in the third quarter, led by gains in full-time work and among core-age workers. The number of private sector employees was unchanged in the third quarter, as overall gains reflected higher employment among self-employed and public sector workers. Employment gains in the third quarter were concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. The national unemployment rate stood at 5.7% in July and August, before declining to 5.5% in September.

Earnings growth accelerated towards mid-year

Earnings growth, measured year-over-year, accelerated towards mid-year, rising to 3.4% in May 2019, after slowing in late 2018 and into early 2019. The faster pace of annual earnings growth towards mid-year reflected strong monthly gains from March to May, supported by increases in finance and insurance industries, health care and retail trade. Earnings in goods-producing industries also strengthened during this period, led by increases in mining and oil and gas extraction.Note 3

The pace of earnings growth, measured year-over-year, varied across provinces during the first half of 2019. In Quebec and Ontario, annual earnings growth averaged 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively, from January to June. Earnings growth averaged 2.8% in British Columbia during this period, compared to 0.6% in Alberta. Earnings growth in most provinces accelerated towards mid-year.

More recently, annual earnings growth was 2.7% in July, supported by gains in administrative services and health care and social assistance. Earnings growth was at or above 3% in Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Ontario, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Merchandise trade deficits narrowed as exports advanced

Following a record deficit of $5.0 billion at the end of 2018, Canada’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed steadily from January to April, before posting a $460 million trade surplus in May, the largest monthly surplus since late 2016. Higher energy and non-energy exports contributed to improvements in the trade balance towards mid-year (Chart 10).

Despite declining deficits during the first half, Canada posted a cumulative merchandise trade deficit of $9.6 billion over the first six months of 2019, up from a deficit of $9.1 billion in the second half of 2018. A larger net surplus in energy products in the first half of 2019 was more than offset by a larger cumulative deficit in non-energy commodities.

Chart 10 – Merchandise trade balance, energy and non-energy commodities

Data table for Chart 10 
Data table for Chart 10
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 10 Total, Energy and Non-energy, calculated using billions of dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Total Energy Non-energy
billions of dollars
2010
January 0.3940 4.5516 -4.1576
February 0.0612 4.4315 -4.3703
March -1.2558 3.7750 -5.0308
April 0.1096 3.8102 -3.7006
May -0.8602 3.9468 -4.8070
June -1.3962 3.9190 -5.3152
July -2.0710 3.6363 -5.7073
August -1.7715 3.0390 -4.8105
September -2.3338 3.4017 -5.7355
October -1.1825 3.7628 -4.9453
November -0.5128 3.9555 -4.4683
December 1.1157 5.1043 -3.9886
2011
January 0.7441 5.0282 -4.2841
February -0.0485 4.6027 -4.6512
March -0.9995 4.0568 -5.0563
April -0.2397 4.5920 -4.8317
May -1.0860 4.3762 -5.4622
June -1.1145 4.4570 -5.5715
July 0.1488 4.9600 -4.8112
August 0.2088 4.7108 -4.5020
September 1.0978 5.1549 -4.0571
October -0.8401 4.7935 -5.6336
November 0.5753 5.3149 -4.7396
December 2.1211 6.3176 -4.1965
2012
January -0.0347 6.1539 -6.1886
February -0.0010 5.2140 -5.2150
March -1.1621 5.1718 -6.3339
April -0.7409 4.9959 -5.7368
May -1.3866 4.0737 -5.4603
June -2.3378 4.5044 -6.8422
July -3.0420 3.8128 -6.8548
August -1.0763 4.3878 -5.4641
September -1.0511 4.7454 -5.7965
October -0.3793 4.7582 -5.1375
November -1.6733 4.6945 -6.3678
December -0.4040 4.8585 -5.2625
2013
January -0.8826 4.6380 -5.5206
February -0.6904 5.1546 -5.8450
March -0.1831 5.4548 -5.6379
April -0.1531 5.3767 -5.5298
May -0.8204 5.5301 -6.3505
June -0.4440 5.3081 -5.7521
July -1.6565 6.0635 -7.7200
August -0.7976 6.5426 -7.3402
September -0.0351 6.8405 -6.8756
October -0.3717 6.4780 -6.8497
November -1.2676 5.8469 -7.1145
December -0.8433 6.2695 -7.1128
2014
January -0.8764 7.0811 -7.9575
February 0.5745 8.1240 -7.5495
March 1.5233 8.6208 -7.0975
April 0.3225 6.9584 -6.6359
May 0.5675 7.5547 -6.9872
June 1.6283 7.4378 -5.8095
July 1.6949 7.0638 -5.3689
August 0.9228 7.2639 -6.3411
September 0.5855 6.8634 -6.2779
October -0.1913 6.7952 -6.9865
November -0.7962 6.1013 -6.8975
December -1.2825 5.1985 -6.4810
2015
January -2.4234 4.6408 -7.0642
February -1.7219 5.1430 -6.8649
March -3.4135 4.4895 -7.9030
April -2.3809 4.4647 -6.8456
May -2.6508 4.7351 -7.3859
June -0.4176 4.9514 -5.3690
July -0.4595 4.7942 -5.2537
August -1.6078 4.2877 -5.8955
September -2.0076 4.1832 -6.1908
October -2.4134 4.1005 -6.5139
November -3.1499 3.6657 -6.8156
December -1.9895 3.4819 -5.4714
2016
January -1.3591 3.4036 -4.7627
February -3.1932 2.7842 -5.9774
March -3.2488 2.7967 -6.0455
April -3.1030 3.2194 -6.3224
May -3.6522 3.1468 -6.7990
June -3.8449 3.1083 -6.9532
July -1.4968 3.5260 -5.0228
August -1.5631 3.9994 -5.5625
September -3.9846 4.2137 -8.1983
October -1.3140 4.3895 -5.7035
November 0.9768 5.1943 -4.2175
December 0.2589 6.1102 -5.8513
2017
January -0.1487 5.4312 -5.5799
February -1.4328 5.3192 -6.7520
March -1.0704 5.9121 -6.9825
April -0.8936 5.5780 -6.4716
May -1.3712 5.7266 -7.0978
June -3.4594 4.7928 -8.2522
July -2.7101 4.7278 -7.4379
August -2.8614 5.1667 -8.0281
September -3.2947 4.7613 -8.0560
October -1.3786 5.1769 -6.5555
November -2.9417 5.3464 -8.2881
December -3.0816 5.4655 -8.5471
2018
January -1.8245 6.3472 -8.1717
February -2.2524 5.6362 -7.8886
March -3.5663 6.0065 -9.5728
April -1.5374 6.4212 -7.9586
May -2.8486 5.9055 -8.7541
June -0.7777 6.9441 -7.7218
July 0.0097 7.1529 -7.1432
August -0.4007 6.8883 -7.2890
September -0.8102 6.9400 -7.7502
October -0.6868 6.2505 -6.9373
November -2.2928 5.3744 -7.6672
December -4.9620 3.0897 -8.0517
2019
January -3.8498 4.9109 -8.7607
February -2.9203 6.2623 -9.1826
March -1.8975 7.5881 -9.4856
April -1.1065 6.8221 -7.9286
May 0.4611 7.471 -7.0099
June -0.2452 7.0813 -7.3265
July -1.3818 6.41 -7.7918
August -0.9553 6.5016 -7.4569

Total energy exports during the first six months of 2019 were $58.5 billion, up 7% from cumulative energy shipments in the second half of 2018. Both higher prices and volumes contributed to the increase in energy exports in the first half (Chart 11). Cumulative exports of non-energy products during the first six months of the year were similar to levels in the second half of 2018, as increases in consumer goods and autos were mainly offset by lower shipments of forestry products and metal and non-metallic mineral products.

Chart 11 – Merchandise exports by commodity group

Data table for Chart 11 
Data table for Chart 11
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 11 Total, Energy and Non-energy, calculated using index (January 2010=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Total Energy Non-energy
index (January 2010=100)
2010
January 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 102.3 98.1 103.6
March 101.1 94.5 103.2
April 101.7 91.8 104.7
May 104.3 93.6 107.7
June 103.2 88.4 107.8
July 102.2 89.9 105.9
August 104.9 88.7 109.9
September 102.9 87.0 107.8
October 105.8 88.3 111.1
November 107.4 94.0 111.5
December 113.0 110.8 113.7
2011
January 116.0 114.6 116.5
February 110.2 107.2 111.2
March 112.3 111.2 112.7
April 113.8 116.1 113.1
May 113.3 114.8 112.8
June 112.2 110.4 112.8
July 116.4 111.5 118.0
August 119.7 111.6 122.2
September 123.3 120.7 124.1
October 120.8 119.4 121.3
November 124.1 127.4 123.1
December 129.2 132.2 128.3
2012
January 122.6 133.1 119.4
February 122.5 127.0 121.0
March 118.5 117.8 118.7
April 119.3 116.1 120.3
May 119.1 109.6 122.0
June 118.1 108.6 121.0
July 116.0 104.0 119.7
August 117.4 110.4 119.6
September 117.0 111.7 118.6
October 118.4 116.0 119.1
November 118.9 117.1 119.5
December 119.0 116.1 119.8
2013
January 119.3 118.5 119.6
February 122.1 121.9 122.1
March 123.8 124.7 123.5
April 125.4 123.4 126.0
May 122.5 122.0 122.7
June 122.2 121.2 122.5
July 119.5 124.3 118.0
August 125.7 138.0 122.0
September 126.9 141.2 122.5
October 124.6 132.9 122.1
November 124.1 121.8 124.9
December 125.3 133.4 122.8
2014
January 125.0 141.9 119.8
February 133.5 160.5 125.2
March 137.4 167.4 128.1
April 135.1 142.4 132.8
May 139.9 149.8 136.8
June 139.5 148.8 136.7
July 140.1 146.5 138.1
August 138.4 142.5 137.1
September 139.0 139.2 138.9
October 139.1 131.3 141.6
November 134.9 126.4 137.5
December 134.6 111.3 141.8
2015
January 130.7 95.8 141.4
February 132.4 104.2 141.1
March 133.4 97.1 144.6
April 132.6 99.2 142.9
May 131.4 99.9 141.1
June 138.6 103.0 149.6
July 140.9 98.2 154.0
August 138.4 92.1 152.6
September 137.1 88.0 152.2
October 134.0 85.1 149.1
November 133.1 80.0 149.5
December 137.6 75.7 156.6
2016
January 140.6 73.6 161.3
February 133.9 61.7 156.2
March 128.2 66.2 147.3
April 128.3 68.5 146.8
May 126.3 72.3 143.0
June 126.8 75.5 142.6
July 133.2 79.7 149.7
August 136.6 86.4 152.1
September 136.1 86.4 151.5
October 137.2 92.2 151.1
November 142.8 100.4 155.8
December 142.0 109.9 151.9
2017
January 144.1 109.5 154.8
February 141.0 110.7 150.3
March 144.5 112.6 154.3
April 145.9 110.0 157.0
May 149.9 111.9 161.7
June 141.6 98.5 154.9
July 135.2 94.4 147.8
August 135.8 97.0 147.7
September 134.9 100.4 145.5
October 138.2 104.2 148.6
November 143.1 106.6 154.3
December 144.5 114.3 153.8
2018
January 142.1 120.7 148.7
February 143.9 116.2 152.4
March 148.8 120.9 157.4
April 151.4 127.2 158.9
May 151.2 124.2 159.5
June 156.9 131.1 164.9
July 158.4 136.5 165.2
August 156.7 134.8 163.5
September 154.7 132.1 161.7
October 154.5 123.5 164.0
November 147.9 106.7 160.6
December 142.7 83.6 160.9
2019
January 148.6 102.2 162.9
February 148.4 121.1 156.8
March 156.0 141.2 160.6
April 156.8 134.7 163.6
May 163.4 139.8 170.6
June 154.8 128.9 162.7
July 153.5 120.6 163.7
August 156.4 125.4 165.9

Total imports of non-energy products were 1.8% higher in the first half of 2019, as higher shipments of aircrafts, motor vehicles and consumer goods offset lower imports of chemicals. Imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 26% in the first half, reflecting higher shipments of airliners from the United States. Meanwhile, imports of energy products were down 3% in the first half, moderating increases in non-energy products.

More recently, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $1.4 billion in July as higher exports of non-energy products, supported increases in metals and non-metallic mineral products, were offset by lower energy shipments. The trade deficit narrowed to $1.0 billion in August as exports advanced.

Manufacturing supported by higher sales in Quebec

Following notable declines in late 2018, monthly manufacturing shipments rebounded in early 2019, advancing 2.7% in March on higher shipments of transportation equipment and primary metals. Factory sales were up in three of the first six months of the year. Total manufacturing sales during the first half of 2019 were unchanged from cumulative shipments in the second half of last year, as higher sales of fabricated metals, food products, motor vehicles and machinery products were offset by declines in wood, petroleum, and chemical products.

Higher sales in Quebec were offset by broad-based declines across the country during the first half of 2019. Total factory sales in Quebec during this period were 1.5% higher than during the last six months of 2018, led by gains in food products, metals and transportation equipment. Manufacturing sales in Ontario edged down 0.1%, as lower sales of petroleum and coal products were partly offset by higher sales of motor vehicles. Manufacturing sales in British Columbia edged down in the first half, mainly reflecting lower shipments of wood and paper products.

More recently, manufacturing sales were down 1.3% in July. Lower sales of primary metals and extended shutdowns at auto assembly plants contributed to the decline. Manufacturing sales rose 0.8% in August.

Retail spending advanced at a more moderate pace

Following declines in late 2018 and to start the year, retail spending rose from February to April, before edging lower towards mid-2019. Total retail sales were 0.5% higher in the first half of 2019 than during the second half of last year, as higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were offset by lower receipts at gasoline stations. Excluding gasoline, total retail sales rose by 1.0% in the first half.

Among the provinces, the pace of retail spending in Quebec edged higher during the first half of 2019, while spending in Ontario rebounded from declines in late 2018. Total sales in Quebec were 1.2% higher during the first six months of 2019 than during the second half of last year, while overall spending levels in Ontario were essentially unchanged. Total sales in British Columbia also edged higher during the first half.

More recently, retail sales advanced in July, supported by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Home prices declined in Vancouver and strengthened in Toronto

Home prices, measured on an unadjusted year-over-year basis, declined during the first half of 2019, led by lower prices in Greater Vancouver. Based on estimates from the MLS Home Price Index, home prices declined on a year-over-year basis from February to June, after overall price growth slowed in late 2018. In June, home prices were 0.3% lower than in June of last year. (Chart 12).

Chart 12 – Multiple listing service home price index, selected cities

Data table for Chart 12 
Data table for Chart 12
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 12 Aggregate, Greater Vancouver , Calgary , Greater Toronto and Greater Montreal, calculated using index (January 2010=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Aggregate Greater Vancouver Calgary Greater Toronto Greater Montreal
index (January 2010=100)
2010
January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 101.3 101.2 101.2 101.4 101.6
March 102.4 102.4 102.4 102.6 102.9
April 103.0 103.2 103.1 103.3 103.7
May 103.2 103.0 103.4 103.3 104.3
June 102.9 102.4 102.9 102.8 104.7
July 102.3 101.3 102.0 102.1 105.1
August 101.8 100.8 100.7 101.8 105.4
September 101.6 100.5 99.5 101.9 105.5
October 101.4 100.4 98.7 102.0 105.7
November 101.3 100.7 97.8 102.4 106.0
December 101.2 100.7 97.3 102.9 106.4
2011
January 101.8 101.7 96.8 103.7 107.2
February 102.9 102.7 97.9 105.4 108.4
March 104.1 104.6 98.7 106.5 109.3
April 105.1 106.8 99.2 107.6 109.8
May 105.7 107.9 99.5 108.7 109.8
June 106.1 108.7 100.1 109.0 109.7
July 106.4 109.0 100.2 109.5 109.8
August 106.5 109.0 99.9 110.1 110.0
September 106.4 108.8 99.5 110.4 110.1
October 106.4 108.5 99.1 110.9 110.4
November 106.3 108.2 98.8 111.2 110.1
December 106.1 107.7 97.9 111.6 109.0
2012
January 106.4 107.7 97.8 111.9 109.7
February 107.4 108.9 98.5 113.3 110.2
March 108.7 110.1 99.4 115.1 111.7
April 109.7 110.9 100.4 116.4 112.4
May 110.5 111.4 101.5 117.5 112.6
June 110.7 110.4 102.2 117.7 113.0
July 110.5 109.5 102.3 117.3 112.6
August 110.2 108.4 102.4 117.1 112.6
September 110.0 107.9 102.5 117.1 112.7
October 109.9 107.4 102.5 116.9 112.6
November 109.5 106.4 102.3 116.6 112.3
December 109.2 105.3 102.4 116.3 112.4
2013
January 109.3 105.0 102.9 116.2 112.6
February 110.1 105.5 104.0 117.0 113.3
March 111.2 105.9 105.3 118.6 114.3
April 112.3 106.7 106.8 119.9 114.7
May 113.2 106.8 107.8 121.0 116.5
June 113.5 107.4 108.4 121.5 115.6
July 113.6 107.4 109.1 121.6 115.4
August 113.8 107.3 109.4 121.8 115.4
September 113.9 107.5 110.0 122.1 115.3
October 114.1 107.4 111.1 122.4 115.3
November 114.3 107.7 111.5 123.2 115.2
December 114.2 107.7 111.9 123.4 114.8
2014
January 114.8 108.3 112.5 124.4 114.7
February 116.1 109.2 114.1 125.6 116.1
March 117.3 110.2 115.7 127.2 116.5
April 118.4 110.9 117.4 128.5 116.5
May 119.4 111.8 119.2 129.6 116.6
June 120.1 112.5 120.4 130.9 116.5
July 120.2 112.5 120.7 131.2 116.1
August 120.3 112.9 121.2 131.0 115.6
September 120.3 113.2 121.5 131.3 115.5
October 120.7 113.8 121.7 132.1 115.7
November 120.8 114.0 121.6 132.7 115.4
December 120.9 114.3 121.2 133.0 115.2
2015
January 121.2 114.9 121.7 133.5 115.3
February 122.2 116.2 121.2 135.2 115.9
March 123.5 118.5 121.1 137.2 117.0
April 124.7 120.4 120.0 139.4 117.7
May 125.7 122.5 119.9 141.2 117.7
June 126.6 124.2 120.3 142.7 117.9
July 127.2 125.3 120.4 143.6 118.1
August 127.5 126.9 120.2 144.1 117.4
September 128.0 129.1 120.2 145.0 117.1
October 128.3 131.2 119.6 145.5 117.1
November 129.0 134.1 118.9 146.1 117.2
December 129.0 135.6 118.2 146.5 117.3
2016
January 129.9 138.3 117.3 147.1 116.9
February 131.9 142.5 116.5 149.8 117.8
March 134.3 146.2 115.9 153.2 118.8
April 137.0 151.4 115.6 157.0 119.2
May 140.6 158.9 115.6 162.2 119.7
June 142.9 163.8 115.7 165.1 120.0
July 144.4 166.0 115.7 167.0 120.0
August 145.3 166.4 115.8 168.7 120.4
September 146.1 165.6 115.7 170.8 120.2
October 147.0 164.0 115.3 173.9 120.3
November 147.4 162.5 114.9 175.3 120.6
December 147.7 160.4 114.7 177.0 121.2
2017
January 149.9 160.1 114.6 180.4 121.3
February 153.2 162.3 114.5 186.0 121.8
March 159.0 165.3 115.2 197.3 123.0
April 163.4 169.3 115.3 206.4 123.9
May 165.0 173.9 116.3 208.5 124.4
June 164.8 177.1 116.7 206.9 125.0
July 162.1 180.6 117.1 197.3 125.9
August 160.7 182.2 116.8 192.8 125.9
September 160.7 183.4 116.4 191.9 126.4
October 160.4 184.2 115.8 190.9 127.1
November 160.2 185.2 115.3 190.1 127.3
December 160.2 185.9 114.3 189.8 127.6
2018
January 160.8 187.3 114.3 189.7 127.6
February 162.7 190.0 114.7 191.9 129.1
March 164.7 192.2 115.2 194.2 130.6
April 165.7 193.3 115.6 195.6 131.7
May 166.6 193.5 115.5 197.1 132.6
June 166.4 193.5 115.5 197.1 132.9
July 165.8 192.5 115.0 196.1 133.0
August 164.9 189.8 114.2 195.6 133.3
September 164.4 187.2 113.5 195.7 134.3
October 164.2 185.9 112.9 196.0 135.0
November 163.4 182.5 111.9 195.3 135.2
December 162.9 181.0 110.7 195.4 135.5
2019
January 162.1 178.9 109.7 194.8 135.6
February 162.6 178.3 109.6 196.4 137.1
March 163.8 177.4 109.7 199.2 138.8
April 164.8 177.0 110.1 201.9 140.0
May 165.5 176.3 110.5 203.3 141.0
June 165.8 174.9 111.0 204.2 141.9
July 166.1 174.3 111.0 204.8 142.7
August 166.4 174.0 111.1 205.2 143.4
September 166.6 173.5 110.8 206.0 144.0

Home prices in Greater Vancouver continued to decline on a year-over-year basis during the first half of the 2019. In June, prices in Vancouver were 9.6% lower than in June of last year. Home prices in Calgary also continued to decline on a year-over-year basis.

In contrast, home prices in Greater Toronto edged higher during the first half of 2019, and were 3.6% higher on a year-over-year basis in June. Home prices in Greater Montreal also continued to strengthen in the first half, and have been on an upward trend since early 2017. Home prices in Montreal were 6.7% higher in June 2019 than in June of last year.

More recently, price growth continued to accelerate in Montreal and Toronto during the summer months.

Homebuilding picked up in the second quarter

Monthly housing starts averaged 205,000 units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) during the first half of 2019, essentially unchanged from average levels in the second half of 2018. Lower starts in Ontario over the first six months of the year were mainly offset by increases in British Columbia and Quebec. Homebuilding strengthened in the second quarter, supported by higher starts in British Columbia and Alberta.

More recently, housing starts continued at a robust pace during July and August, supported by higher multi-unit starts in Ontario.

Residential building permits edged higher in the first half of 2019. Permits in the first half totalled $31.0 billion, up 0.6% from the last half of 2018.

Headline consumer inflation edged higher towards mid-year

After coming in below the 2% mark over the first three months of 2019, consumer price inflation edged higher in the spring, as the headline rate accelerated to 2.4% in May before slowing to 2.0% at mid-year. Gasoline prices, which have declined on a year-over-year basis since late 2018, continued to influence movements in the headline rate. Excluding gasoline prices, consumer inflation averaged 2.3% from January to June, up from 2.1% in the last half of 2018.

Increases in shelter costs, measured year-over-year, averaged 2.6% during the first six months of 2019. Annual increases in mortgage interest costs rose above 8% from February to June. In contrast, the homeowners’ replacement cost index, which partly reflects changes in new home prices, was largely unchanged during the first half, after decelerating throughout 2018.

Food price inflation strengthened during the first half of 2019, supported by higher prices for food purchased from stores. Year-over-year increases in food prices averaged 3.3% from January to June, up from 2.0% in the last half of 2018.

Prices for consumer durables accelerated in the spring, rising to 2.5% in May, the largest year-over-year increase since early 2017. Higher prices for passenger vehicles contributed to the acceleration. Annual price increases for consumer durables averaged 1.1% from January to June, up from 0.4% during the second half of 2018. Annual price increases for services averaged 2.5% during the first six months of 2019.

The gap between annual earnings growth and consumer inflation widened towards mid-year, as earnings strengthened from March to May (Chart 13).

Chart 13 – Annual earnings growth and consumer price inflation

Data table for Chart 13 
Data table for Chart 13
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 13 Average weekly earnings and Consumer price inflation , calculated using year-over-year change (percent) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Average weekly earnings Consumer price inflation
year-over-year change (percent)
2010
January 2.3 1.9
February 2.8 1.6
March 2.7 1.4
April 3.4 1.8
May 3.5 1.4
June 3.5 1.0
July 3.8 1.8
August 4.5 1.7
September 4.5 1.9
October 4.2 2.4
November 4.3 2.0
December 4.0 2.4
2011
January 4.6 2.3
February 3.5 2.2
March 3.4 3.3
April 2.9 3.3
May 2.9 3.7
June 2.4 3.1
July 1.8 2.7
August 1.6 3.1
September 0.9 3.2
October 2.5 2.9
November 1.9 2.9
December 1.7 2.3
2012
January 1.4 2.5
February 1.2 2.6
March 1.9 1.9
April 2.2 2.0
May 2.1 1.2
June 2.7 1.5
July 3.6 1.2
August 3.6 1.2
September 3.4 1.2
October 2.4 1.2
November 2.7 0.8
December 2.6 0.8
2013
January 1.8 0.5
February 2.8 1.2
March 1.8 1.0
April 1.7 0.4
May 2.6 0.7
June 1.9 1.2
July 1.0 1.3
August 0.8 1.1
September 1.1 1.1
October 1.5 0.7
November 2.1 0.9
December 2.3 1.2
2014
January 2.5 1.5
February 2.4 1.1
March 2.6 1.5
April 3.0 2.0
May 2.5 2.3
June 2.9 2.4
July 3.6 2.1
August 3.2 2.1
September 3.0 2.0
October 2.8 2.4
November 1.7 2.0
December 1.7 1.5
2015
January 2.7 1.0
February 2.5 1.0
March 2.7 1.2
April 2.4 0.8
May 1.3 0.9
June 1.8 1.0
July 1.6 1.3
August 0.5 1.3
September 1.5 1.0
October 1.5 1.0
November 1.3 1.4
December 1.5 1.6
2016
January 0.1 2.0
February 0.4 1.4
March 0.4 1.3
April -0.1 1.7
May 0.7 1.5
June 0.4 1.5
July 0.0 1.3
August 1.4 1.1
September 0.2 1.3
October -0.1 1.5
November 0.9 1.2
December 1.4 1.5
2017
January 1.8 2.1
February 1.0 2.0
March 1.1 1.6
April 1.9 1.6
May 1.7 1.3
June 1.6 1.0
July 1.4 1.2
August 1.9 1.4
September 3.2 1.6
October 3.0 1.4
November 3.2 2.1
December 2.4 1.9
2018
January 2.6 1.7
February 3.5 2.2
March 3.2 2.3
April 2.3 2.2
May 2.7 2.2
June 3.0 2.5
July 3.1 3.0
August 3.0 2.8
September 1.6 2.2
October 2.5 2.4
November 2.0 1.7
December 1.7 2.0
2019
January 1.9 1.4
February 1.2 1.5
March 1.8 1.9
April 2.6 2.0
May 3.4 2.4
June 2.1 2.0
July 2.7 2.0
August Note ...: not applicable 1.9
September Note ...: not applicable 1.9

More recently, consumer price inflation stood at 2.0% in July, before edging down to 1.9% in August and September. Excluding gas prices, consumer prices rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in each of these months.

Equities rebounded on broad-based gains in non-energy stocks

Following sharp declines in late 2018, Canadian equity prices rallied during the first half of 2019 as non-energy stocks advanced. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 16,382 in June, up 14.4% from levels at year end. Gains were broad-based as information technology, industrials, utilities, gold, financials and consumer stocks all rallied in the first half. The energy index in June was up slightly from levels at year-end 2018 as losses in the spring offset gains early in the year.

More recently, the S&P/TSX composite index was little changed in July and August as gains in non-energy stocks offset declines in energy. As of August, the energy index had posted four consecutive monthly losses and was down 37% from levels in August 2018.

After closing at 73.3 cents U.S. at the end of 2018, the Canadian dollar strengthened in early 2019, trading at 76.4 cents in early February. The dollar trended lower from February to May, edging down to about 74 cents, before rising above 76 cents in late June. The dollar trended lower during the summer months, closing at 75.2 cents at the end of August. 

Bond yields trended lower in the first half of 2019 as the spread between short- and long-term yields narrowed toward mid-year. Yields on Government of Canada two-year bonds were at 1.82% in January and declined to 1.46% in June. Similarly, yields on ten-year bonds declined from 1.92% in January to 1.50% at mid-year.

The spread between two-and ten-year bond yields inverted during the summer months, widening to 20 basis points in August as yields fell along the curve. Yields on 10-year Government of Canada bonds were 1.13% in August.

The Bank of Canada maintained the target for the overnight rate at 1.75% at its six interest rate announcements from January to September 2019. The conventional five-year mortgage rate published by the Bank of Canada was lowered to 5.19% in July 2019, the first change in published five-year rate since it rose to 5.34% in May 2018.

Commodities prices advanced on gains in energy and metals and minerals

Following substantial declines during the last half of 2018, commodity prices strengthened in the first half of 2019, supported by gains in energy, metals and minerals and agriculture. Overall commodity prices were 8.2% higher at mid-year than in December 2018, reflecting increases during the first quarter of 2019. Excluding energy, commodities prices were up 3.0% in the first half of the year.

Overall commodity prices advanced 2.8% in July before decreasing 3.1% in August on broad-based declines. Measured on a year-over-year basis, commodity prices in August were down 8% from levels in August 2018, reflecting declines in energy, forestry products and agriculture.

Household net worth rose and mortgage borrowing strengthened

The net worth of households rose 1.2% in the second quarter, following a 2.7% gain in the first. Stronger equity prices in both quarters bolstered the value of household financial assets, as equity markets rebounded from sharp losses in late 2018. The value of household real estate assets also rose in the first and second quarters, following declines in the second half of last year. Total household assets in the second quarter were valued at $13.54 trillion, while household financial liabilities amounted to $2.28 trillion.

Chart 14 – Household credit market borrowing, seasonally adjusted flows

Data table for Chart 14 
Data table for Chart 14
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 14 Consumer credit , Non-mortgage loans and Mortgage loans, calculated using billions of dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Consumer credit Non-mortgage loans Mortgage loans
billions of dollars
2010
First quarter 9.1 1.2 19.6
Second quarter 1.8 0.5 21.7
Third quarter 5.9 1.2 11.0
Fourth quarter 7.8 0.1 16.5
2011
First quarter 6.0 0.8 13.9
Second quarter 5.9 0.4 18.9
Third quarter 4.2 -0.6 16.6
Fourth quarter 4.6 2.3 17.0
2012
First quarter 0.7 1.4 16.4
Second quarter 4.9 2.3 12.1
Third quarter 6.4 -0.4 13.6
Fourth quarter 4.1 0.0 13.0
2013
First quarter 6.0 1.8 15.4
Second quarter 3.9 0.8 13.8
Third quarter 4.2 1.5 12.9
Fourth quarter 5.0 0.4 12.6
2014
First quarter 4.5 0.2 13.5
Second quarter 5.6 0.6 13.5
Third quarter 4.3 1.7 15.1
Fourth quarter 4.2 1.7 15.0
2015
First quarter 5.8 0.0 16.0
Second quarter 3.6 6.1 18.4
Third quarter 4.3 0.7 20.5
Fourth quarter 3.8 1.4 21.2
2016
First quarter 4.4 2.6 16.2
Second quarter 7.5 1.7 20.7
Third quarter 2.5 0.2 20.3
Fourth quarter 7.7 2.5 18.0
2017
First quarter 8.1 0.4 17.7
Second quarter 9.1 1.4 18.9
Third quarter 7.0 1.6 15.0
Fourth quarter 7.9 2.1 15.7
2018
First quarter 6.8 4.2 13.3
Second quarter 8.7 2.5 7.6
Third quarter 8.7 2.1 11.8
Fourth quarter 7.0 1.1 12.5
2019
First quarter 5.9 -0.1 13.1
Second quarter 6.3 2.3 14.8

The pace of household credit market borrowing strengthened in the second quarter on increases in mortgage and non-mortgage loans (Chart 14). Measured on a seasonally-adjusted basis, mortgage borrowing was $14.8 billion in the second quarter, up from $13.1 billion in the first. Mortgage borrowing in the second quarter remained 5.5% lower than levels in late 2017, prior to changes in borrowing requirements. Overall credit market borrowing by households in the second quarter of 2019, based on mortgage loans, non-mortgage loans, and consumer credit, was $23.5 billion, up about $5 billion from the first quarter .

The ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income, adjusted for seasonality, decreased to 177.1% in the second quarter, the third consecutive quarterly decline. The household debt service ratio, which includes obligated principal payments and interest owing, edged up to 14.9% in the second quarter as interest payments continued to rise. The ratio of household debt to household assets edged up to 16.9% in the second quarter. While the debt-to-asset ratio has edged higher since early 2017, it has generally trended lower since the 2008-2009 recession.

References

Gellatly, G. and C. McCormack. 2019. Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Spring 2019. Economic Insights, no. 93. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.


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