Notes

^1.

Current Analysis Group (613-951-4886)

^2.

All references to 2011 refer to the first three quarters of 2011 except for when full-time students and other youth are discussed in which case 2011 refers to the first two months of the 2011-12 school year, September and October 2011.

^3.

In determining the base period to use, 1976, 1984, 1992 and 1997 were tested with each showing the same trend and little deviation. Prior to the late 1990s, when the early baby boomers started reaching the age of retirement, there was no difference between the actual labour force participation rate and an age-weighted participation rate (of any base year).

^4.

The 2.9 percentage point increase was exceeded only by the gain between 1976 and 1989. Increased participation of women in the baby boomer generation contributed to this earlier gain.

^5.

Unemployment for core working age women was lower than men, falling from 6% in 2003 to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Core working age men's unemployment rate fell to a pre-recession low of 5.3%. Within these groups, men between 45 to 49 years and 50 to 54 years had the lowest rate for men, at 4.7% in 2007. The same age groups posted the lowest unemployment rates for women, at 4.4% and 4.3% in 2007.

^6.

James, Sargent, Barnett and Lavoie "The Canadian Labour Force Participation Rate Revisited: Cohort and Wealth effects Take Hold" (Dept of Finance Working Paper 2007) indicate that there was a strong negative relationship between labour force participation (for 30 to 64 year olds for men and 45 to 64 year olds for women) and changes in net wealth meaning that when net wealth declines, labour force participation increases. As well they noted that the majority of the increase in the participation rate of older workers in 2002 and 2003 was "due to a reduction in net wealth, resulting from the large decline in equity prices." (pg 19)

^7.

Conceptually, employment is a quantity measure showing the number of individuals employed, while the participation rate is a ratio of individuals in the labour force and in the population of working age. The employment-to-population ratio more closely resembles the dynamic of the labour force participation ratio. While employment gains can be driven by population gains, both the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio register growth only if labour force growth or employment growth exceeds population growth.

^8.

Normally, the rates involving students are calculated using an average of the eight typical school months, September to April. For the 2011-2012 school year, both September and October 2011 were available at the time of publishing, as an early indication of the year's trend. The average of the September and October figures were compared to the range normally observed during a school year, from which there was little deviation.

^9.

A similar decline occurred from April to September 2011. Tammy Schirle (2007) "Why have the labour force participation rates of older men increased since the mid-1990s?", Wilfred Laurier University Working Paper, April 2007, also notes that about half of the rise in older men's labour force participation rate in Canada between 1995 and 2005 can be explained "as a response to changes in wives' labour force participation" (pg 22), as husbands preferred to postpone retirement while their wives remained in the labour force.