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Chief Economic Analyst (613-951-9162)
P. Cross and G. Salvatore, “The changing role of inventories in the business cycle.” Canadian Economic Observer, Catalogue No. 11-010-XPB, November 2003.
Inventory levels are examined in constant dollars. The nominal ratio of inventory to sales is used, since longer time series are available in current dollars and deflating the numerator and denominator by essentially the same price index makes little difference.
J. MC Carthey and E. Zakrajsek (2002), “Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?” p. 33. Staff report No. 156, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Jeremy Piger, “Is the Business Cycle Still an Inventory Cycle?” National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 2005.
P. Cross, “The accelerated pace of the 2008-2009 downturn.” Canadian Economic Observer, Catalogue No. 11-010-XPB, May 2010.
Tangentially, it is interesting that on the eve of the year 2000, the inventory-to-sales ratio stood at an all-time low, reflecting the confidence firms had that there would be no Y2K disruptions of production or distribution.
While non-farm inventories were little changed in the fourth quarter of 2008, total inventories rose $5.6 billion as a result of grain channels being swollen by a bumper crop.
Sectoral data are calculated in constant 2002 dollars on a Laspeyres basis, and therefore do not necessarily add up to total non-farm business inventories, which are stated in Chain Fisher 2002 dollars.
Sales for other are not available, so the inventory-to-sales ratio cannot be calculated.
G. Epstein, “Looking for Proof in All the Wrong Places.” Barron’s, May 25, 1998.