Chief Economic Analyst (613-951-9162)

Jobs fell 6.1% in 2008-2009, versus 2.8% in 1974-1975; 3.1% in 1981-1982; 1.4% in 1990-1991; and 1.8% in 2001-2002. The 14.8% drop in US industrial production in 2008-2009 exceeded the declines of 13.6% in 1957-1958, 13.0% in 1974-1975, and 9.3% in 1981-1982.

Imports fell sharply too, with all of the drop due to a 13% decline in volume as prices were steady. Nearly two-thirds of the drop in imports was concentrated in autos and machinery and equipment, sectors where exports have an import content of about 50%. The net result of exports falling faster than imports was a current account deficit of $41.3 billion, due largely to the first shortfall for trade in goods since 1975.

Business investment fell 17% in volume: the next largest on record back to 1961 was a 12% drop in 1982.

For a detailed description, see Henry Paulson Jr., “On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System.” Business Plus (Hachette Book Group), NY, 2010, p. 318 to 322 and p. 436.

“…investment banks are financed literally overnight by others on the assumption that they will be around the next morning…”, Andrew Sorkin, Too Big to Fail, Viking Press, 2009, p. 10.

Business services include professional, scientific and technical plus administrative services.

Government comprises public administration, health and education.