Analysis

Description:

In the U.S. Census of Population and Housing, a sample of about one-in-six of the households receives a longer version of the census questionnaire called the long form. All others receive a version called the short form. Raking, using selected control totals from the short form, has been used to create two sets of weights for long form estimation; one for individuals and one for households. We describe a weight construction method based on quadratic programming that produces household weights such that the weighted sum for individual characteristics and for household characteristics agree closely with selected short form totals. The method is broadly applicable to situations where weights are to be constructed to meet both size bounds and sum-to-control restrictions. Application to the situation where the controls are estimates with an estimated covariance matrix is described.

Description:

The weighting cell estimator corrects for unit nonresponse by dividing the sample into homogeneous groups (cells) and applying a ratio correction to the respondents within each cell. Previous studies of the statistical properties of weighting cell estimators have assumed that these cells correspond to known population cells with homogeneous characteristics. In this article, we study the properties of the weighting cell estimator under a response probability model that does not require correct specification of homogeneous population cells. Instead, we assume that the response probabilities are a smooth but otherwise unspecified function of a known auxiliary variable. Under this more general model, we study the robustness of the weighting cell estimator against model misspecification. We show that, even when the population cells are unknown, the estimator is consistent with respect to the sampling design and the response model. We describe the effect of the number of weighting cells on the asymptotic properties of the estimator. Simulation experiments explore the finite sample properties of the estimator. We conclude with some guidance on how to select the size and number of cells for practical implementation of weighting cell estimation when those cells cannot be specified a priori.

Description:

When imputation is used to assign values for missing items in sample surveys, naïve methods of estimating the variances of survey estimates that treat the imputed values as if they were observed give biased variance estimates. This article addresses the problem of variance estimation for a linear estimator in which missing values are assigned by a single hot deck imputation (a form of imputation that is widely used in practice). We propose estimators of the variance of a linear hot deck imputed estimator using a decomposition of the total variance suggested by Särndal (1992). A conditional approach to variance estimation is developed that is applicable to both weighted and unweighted hot deck imputation. Estimation of the variance of a domain estimator is also examined.

Description:

One of the main objectives of a sample survey is the computation of estimates of means and totals for specific domains of interest. Domains are determined either before the survey is carried out (primary domains) or after it has been carried out (secondary domains). The reliability of the associated estimates depends on the variability of the sample size as well as on the y-variables of interest. This variability cannot be controlled in the absence of auxiliary information for subgroups of the population. However, if auxiliary information is available, the estimated reliability of the resulting estimates can be controlled to some extent. In this paper, we study the potential improvements in terms of the reliability of domain estimates that use auxiliary information. The properties (bias, coverage, efficiency) of various estimators that use auxiliary information are compared using a conditional approach.

Description:

This article studies the use of the sample distribution for the prediction of finite population totals under single-stage sampling. The proposed predictors employ the sample values of the target study variable, the sampling weights of the sample units and possibly known population values of auxiliary variables. The prediction problem is solved by estimating the expectation of the study values for units outside the sample as a function of the corresponding expectation under the sample distribution and the sampling weights. The prediction mean square error is estimated by a combination of an inverse sampling procedure and a re-sampling method. An interesting outcome of the present analysis is that several familiar estimators in common use are shown to be special cases of the proposed approach, thus providing them a new interpretation. The performance of the new and some old predictors in common use is evaluated and compared by a Monte Carlo simulation study using a real data set.

Description:

Multilevel models are often fitted to survey data gathered with a complex multistage sampling design. However, if such a design is informative, in the sense that the inclusion probabilities depend on the response variable even after conditioning on the covariates, then standard maximum likelihood estimators are biased. In this paper, following the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PML) approach of Skinner (1989), we propose a probability weighted estimation procedure for multilevel ordinal and binary models which eliminates the bias generated by the informativeness of the design. The reciprocals of the inclusion probabilities at each sampling stage are used to weight the log likelihood function and the weighted estimators obtained in this way are tested by means of a simulation study for the simple case of a binary random intercept model with and without covariates. The variance estimators are obtained by a bootstrap procedure. The maximization of the weighted log likelihood of the model is done by the NLMIXED procedure of the SAS, which is based on adaptive Gaussian quadrature. Also the bootstrap estimation of variances is implemented in the SAS environment.

Description:

The Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS) was not designed to be a longitudinal survey. However, given that respondent households typically remain in the sample for six consecutive months, it is possible to reconstruct six-month fragments of longitudinal data from the monthly records of household members. Such longitudinal micro-data - altogether consisting of millions of person-months of individual and family level data - is useful for analyses of monthly labour market dynamics over relatively long periods of time, 25 years and more.

We make use of these data to estimate hazard functions describing transitions among the labour market states: self-employed, paid employee and not employed. Data on job tenure, for employed respondents, and on the date last worked, for those not employed - together with the date of survey responses - allow the construction of models that include terms reflecting seasonality and macro-economic cycles as well as the duration dependence of each type of transition. In addition, the LFS data permits spouse labour market activity and family composition variables to be included in the hazard models as time-varying covariates. The estimated hazard equations have been incorporated in the LifePaths microsimulation model. In that setting, the equations have been used to simulate lifetime employment activity from past, present and future birth cohorts. Simulation results have been validated by comparison with the age profiles of LFS employment/population ratios for the period 1976 to 2001.

Description:

Combining response data from the Belgian Fertility and Family Survey with individual level and municipality level data from the 1991 Census for both nonrespondents and respondents, multilevel logistic regression models for contact and cooperation propensity are estimated. The covariates introduced are a selection of indirect features, all out of the researchers' direct control. Contrary to previous research, Socio Economic Status is found to be positively related to cooperation. Another unexpected result is the absence of any considerable impact of ecological correlates such as urbanity.

Description:

In this Issue is a column where the Editor biefly presents each paper of the current issue of Survey Methodology. As well, it sometimes contain informations on structure or management changes in the journal.

Description:

This study examines variation among Canadian schools and provinces in their reading performance. It uses data from the 2000 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD).

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic provides estimates on health care workers' stress, alcohol consumption and positive health behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates are provided across three primary health care worker groups: nurses, physicians, and Personal Support Workers/Care Aides (PSWs/CAs).

Description: Many aspects of Canadian society affect and are affected by climate change. This presentation synthesizes recent research examining the impact of climate change on Canadian society (economy, labour, and health) as well as adaptation and mitigation measures to combat climate change.

Description: From 2010 to 2019, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) response rate – or the proportion of selected households who complete an LFS interview – had been on a slow downward trend, due to a range of social and technological changes which have made it more challenging to contact selected households and to persuade Canadians to participate when they are contacted. These factors were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in the suspension of face-to-face interviewing between April 2020 and fall 2022. Statistics Canada is committed to restoring LFS response rates to the greatest extent possible. This technical paper discusses two initiatives that are underway to ensure that the LFS estimates continue to provide an accurate and representative portrait of the Canadian labour market.

Description: This research paper examines shelter and transportation costs within census metropolitan areas (CMAs). The paper begins by describing a proposed methodology for delineating urban and suburban sub-regions within CMA Market Basket Measure (MBM) regions. It then presents new shelter and transportation costs based on the new delineations and assesses the extent to which differences in costs between urban and suburban sub-regions differ. The analysis concludes by examining how the new delineations would impact the estimation of poverty rates had they been implemented. This paper also provides an opportunity for the public and stakeholders to provide feedback and comments.

Description: This study examines enrolment in French-language elementary schools in the Maritime provinces—i.e., New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island—according to the distance between children’s homes and French- and English-language schools. The study is based on data from the 2021 Census of Population and on data from the 2022 Open Database on Educational Facilities.

Description: This document describes the methodology, concepts and data sources used in the compilation of statistics on the underground economy in Canada, which provide information on the extent of underground economic activity in Canada and its provinces and territories.

Description: This discussion paper describes considerations for applying the Market Basket Measure (MBM) methodology onto a purely administrative data source. The paper will begin by outlining a rationale for estimating MBM poverty statistics using administrative income data sources. It then explains a proposal for creating annual samples along with the caveats of creating these samples, followed by a brief analysis using the proposed samples. The paper concludes with potential future improvements to the samples and provides the opportunity for reader’s feedback.

Description: This paper examines the emigration of immigrants using the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). An indirect definition of emigration is proposed that leverages the information available in the IMDB. This study found that emigration of immigrants is a significant phenomenon. Certain characteristics of immigrants, such as having children, admission category and country of birth, have a strong correlation with emigration.

Description: Using 2021 Census data, this article examines the link between working from home and the languages used at work. It focuses on three Census metropolitan areas (CMAs) of Moncton, Montréal and Ottawa–Gatineau—three regions where both English and French are used widely at work.

Description: This article provides an in-depth look at trends in fertility in Canada from 1921 to 2022. The evolution of the total fertility rate (TFR) over time is examined, with a special focus on shifts that have occurred following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The shifts observed in Canada's TFR from 2019 to 2022 are situated in an international context, and differences among the provincial and territories are explored. Also, year-over-year changes in the monthly number of births are analyzed and contrasted with the experience of other countries. Lastly, trends in age-specific fertility rates and the average age of childbearing in Canada are described, as well the cumulated fertility of different cohorts of women to date.

Description: This Juristat article examines the nature and prevalence of firearm-related violent crime in Canada. Recent trends in firearm-related violent crime are presented at the national, provincial/territorial and census metropolitan area levels as well as for urban and rural regions.

Description: Goats are raised to produce dairy, meat, fibre and skin products. The demand for these products has risen over time in Canada. Results from the Census of Agriculture show that despite a decline in the number of farms reporting goats, the overall number of goats reported on farms in Canada has significantly increased over the last 30 years—largely because of increases in Ontario, where the greatest share of goats has been reported.

Description:

These highlights provide a brief summary of the report "At risk: a socio-economic analysis of health and literacy among seniors", the latest monograph released using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey. This report demonstrates that the socio-economic environment remains an important determinant of health. Variables such as income and education continue to have direct and indirect effects on people's health status.

Description:

The contributors to this book examine two broad themes related to the well-being of Canadian youth. First, they document the nature of the labour market facing young adults and how it has changed since the early 1970s. Second, the authors examine how families, communities, and the public sector influence some of the ways in which children become successful and self-reliant adults. The motivation for bringing these essays together has to do with the increasing importance of child well-being in public discourse and the development of public policy. The major message to emerge is that the future of Canada's children is both a good news, and a bad news story. Labour markets have changed dramatically, and on average it is now more difficult to obtain a strong foothold that will lead to increasing prosperity. Many young Canadians, however, are well prepared by their family and community backgrounds to deal with these new challenges, and as young parents are in a position to pass this heritage on to their children. However, this has not been the case for an increasingly larger minority, a group whose children in turn may face greater than average challenges in getting ahead in life. A companion volume published in February of 1998 by Statistics Canada called Government finances and generational equity examines the operation of government taxes and transfers from a generational perspective, focusing on the conduct of fiscal policy and the relative status of individuals in successive generations.

Description:

These highlights provide a brief summary of the report "Literacy utilization in Canadian workplaces", the latest monograph released using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey. This report examines the fit or mismatch between the job requirements of Canadian workers and their literacy skills, thus profiling patterns of literacy usage and under- usage in the Canadian labour market.

Description:

This report, based on results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY), focuses on changes in the family environment, specifically, common-law unions, custody arrangements and financial issues. The NLSCY is a comprehensive survey which will follow the development of children in Canada and paint a picture of their lives.

Description:

These highlights provide a brief summary of the report " The Value of Words: Literacy and Economic Security in Canada", the latest monograph released using data from the International Adult Literacy Survey. Canada, like many other industrialized countries, is increasingly being forced to face the literacy problem within its own borders. Over the past decade, the issue has become more prominent on the national policy and research agenda. There has been little systematic research in Canada, however, on the relationship between literacy and income security. Using data from the Canadian component of the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS), this study seeks to fill this research gap. An in-depth exploration of the links between literacy and economic security will build on existing knowledge and will also provide useful insights that will help shape public policy.

Description:

This publication presents data, charts, map and analytical text on trips and socio-economic characteristics of Canadians travelling within Canada. Trip information includes purpose, activities, mode of transportation, length of stay, origin and destination, and expenditures. In addition to providing national data, the publication also includes some tables presenting provincial and metropolitan detail.

Description:

Based on a presentation by Dr. Ivan Fellegi to the Federal Deputy Ministers' Committee on the Economic Renewal of Rural Canada in September l996, Understanding rural Canada uses charts and maps to present information on: rural demography showing population change and net migration by census division for the most recent 5-year period (l989 to l994); a focus on rural youth including information on education attained, plans for further education and ablility to use computers; rural employment, rural unemployment, rural employment in growing sectors and rural employment by small businesses; a classification of census divisions by level of average incomes and change in average incomes to show that many rural areas have lower incomes and their incomes are falling further behind; and, a typology of census divisions where rural areas are classified to rural nirvana areas, agro-rural areas, rural enclave areas, rural resourced areas and native north areas. This presentation was an outgrowth of the publication Rural Canada: a profile published by the federal Interdepartmental Committee on Rural and Remote Canada in March, l995.

Description:

Bankruptcy rates have been increasing in Canada. Almost half of the firms in Canada that go bankrupt do so primarily because of their own deficiencies rather than externally generated problems. They do not develop the basic internal strengths to survive. Overall weakness in management, combined with a lack of market for their product, cause these firms to fail.

This study suggests that the underlying factor contributing to financial difficulties is management failure rather than external factors associated with imperfect capital markets. Many bankrupt firms face problems in attaining financing in capital markets; but, it is the internal lack of managerial expertise in many of these firms that prevents exploration of different financing options.

Description:

"Generational equity" is a topic that has gradually risen higher and higher on the agenda of governments at all levels. In fact, it is a matter not just for government policy, but a topic that touches many Canadians directly: young and old, parents and grandparents. Canadian policy makers increasingly have to deal with issues associated with the relative status of individuals between successive generations. The reform of public pension programs presents the most obvious example, but there are many other developments that raise the same type of issue. Indeed, the heightened concern over government fiscal policies is due in large part to the readiness of many to view government deficits and debt as a burden on future generations. Generational equity, however, is also a concern of individual Canadians and their families. The allocation of resources between the young and the old within the family is becoming an increasingly important issue for many, especially in light not only of an aging population but also the belief that those just entering the labour force will likely not attain the standard of living to which their parents have become accustomed.

The contributors to this book examine the operation of government taxes and expenditures from a generational perspective. In part the motivation for bringing these essays together is to offer comprehensive and up-to-date information on the age incidence of government finances. This motivation, however, also has to do with the development of a new accounting framework, Generational Accounting, that has gained some currency in many industrialized countries, particularly in the United States. It is a truism to say that good analysis requires good data, and certainly Statistic Canada's central role is to offer high-quality data in support of analysis and decision making. But the opposite is equally true, if not as obvious: good data requires good analysis. That is to say, new analytical frameworks often highlight the need to organize existing data in different ways, as well as the need for the development of new types of data. This is certainly one of several reasons that Statistics Canada has sought to develop a strong analytical capacity, and to maintain strong ties with the research community. This book is meant to contribute to this process by examining Canadian data through the lens of Generational Accounting, and by analyzing some of the issues that arise.

Description:

On September 11 and 12, 1996 Statistics Canada's Business and Trade Statistics Field sponsored its eight annual conference on statistics and economic analysis in Ottawa. The theme of the conference was Canadian Economic Structural Change in the Age of NAFTA. Guest speakers and submitted papers discussed a variety of topics related to economic restructuring and the NAFTA.