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- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202300100006Description: My comments consist of three components: (1) A brief account of my professional association with Chris Skinner. (2) Observations on Skinner’s contributions to statistical disclosure control, (3) Some comments on making inferences from masked survey data.Release date: 2023-06-30
- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202200100003Description:
Use of auxiliary data to improve the efficiency of estimators of totals and means through model-assisted survey regression estimation has received considerable attention in recent years. Generalized regression (GREG) estimators, based on a working linear regression model, are currently used in establishment surveys at Statistics Canada and several other statistical agencies. GREG estimators use common survey weights for all study variables and calibrate to known population totals of auxiliary variables. Increasingly, many auxiliary variables are available, some of which may be extraneous. This leads to unstable GREG weights when all the available auxiliary variables, including interactions among categorical variables, are used in the working linear regression model. On the other hand, new machine learning methods, such as regression trees and lasso, automatically select significant auxiliary variables and lead to stable nonnegative weights and possible efficiency gains over GREG. In this paper, a simulation study, based on a real business survey sample data set treated as the target population, is conducted to study the relative performance of GREG, regression trees and lasso in terms of efficiency of the estimators and properties of associated regression weights. Both probability sampling and non-probability sampling scenarios are studied.
Release date: 2022-06-21 - 3. Empirical likelihood inference for missing survey data under unequal probability sampling ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100002Description:
Item nonresponse is frequently encountered in sample surveys. Hot-deck imputation is commonly used to fill in missing item values within homogeneous groups called imputation classes. We propose a fractional hot-deck imputation procedure and an associated empirical likelihood for inference on the population mean of a function of a variable of interest with missing data under probability proportional to size sampling with negligible sampling fractions. We derive the limiting distributions of the maximum empirical likelihood estimator and empirical likelihood ratio, and propose two related asymptotically valid bootstrap procedures to construct confidence intervals for the population mean. Simulation studies show that the proposed bootstrap procedures outperform the customary bootstrap procedures which are shown to be asymptotically incorrect when the number of random draws in the fractional imputation is fixed. Moreover, the proposed bootstrap procedure based on the empirical likelihood ratio is seen to perform significantly better than the method based on the limiting distribution of the maximum empirical likelihood estimator when the inclusion probabilities vary considerably or when the sample size is not large.
Release date: 2019-05-07 - 4. My chancy life as a Statistician ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100003Description:
In this short article, I will attempt to provide some highlights of my chancy life as a Statistician in chronological order spanning over sixty years, 1954 to present.
Release date: 2019-05-07 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254958Description:
Domains (or subpopulations) with small sample sizes are called small areas. Traditional direct estimators for small areas do not provide adequate precision because the area-specific sample sizes are small. On the other hand, demand for reliable small area statistics has greatly increased. Model-based indirect estimators of small area means or totals are currently used to address difficulties with direct estimation. These estimators are based on linking models that borrow information across areas to increase the efficiency. In particular, empirical best (EB) estimators under area level and unit level linear regression models with random small area effects have received a lot of attention in the literature. Model mean squared error (MSE) of EB estimators is often used to measure the variability of the estimators. Linearization-based estimators of model MSE as well as jackknife and bootstrap estimators are widely used. On the other hand, National Statistical Agencies are often interested in estimating the design MSE of EB estimators in line with traditional design MSE estimators associated with direct estimators for large areas with adequate sample sizes. Estimators of design MSE of EB estimators can be obtained for area level models but they tend to be unstable when the area sample size is small. Composite MSE estimators are proposed in this paper and they are obtained by taking a weighted sum of the design MSE estimator and the model MSE estimator. Properties of the MSE estimators under the area level model are studied in terms of design bias, relative root mean squared error and coverage rate of confidence intervals. The case of a unit level model is also examined under simple random sampling within each area. Results of a simulation study show that the proposed composite MSE estimators provide a good compromise in estimating the design MSE.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201700254888Description:
We discuss developments in sample survey theory and methods covering the past 100 years. Neyman’s 1934 landmark paper laid the theoretical foundations for the probability sampling approach to inference from survey samples. Classical sampling books by Cochran, Deming, Hansen, Hurwitz and Madow, Sukhatme, and Yates, which appeared in the early 1950s, expanded and elaborated the theory of probability sampling, emphasizing unbiasedness, model free features, and designs that minimize variance for a fixed cost. During the period 1960-1970, theoretical foundations of inference from survey data received attention, with the model-dependent approach generating considerable discussion. Introduction of general purpose statistical software led to the use of such software with survey data, which led to the design of methods specifically for complex survey data. At the same time, weighting methods, such as regression estimation and calibration, became practical and design consistency replaced unbiasedness as the requirement for standard estimators. A bit later, computer-intensive resampling methods also became practical for large scale survey samples. Improved computer power led to more sophisticated imputation for missing data, use of more auxiliary data, some treatment of measurement errors in estimation, and more complex estimation procedures. A notable use of models was in the expanded use of small area estimation. Future directions in research and methods will be influenced by budgets, response rates, timeliness, improved data collection devices, and availability of auxiliary data, some of which will come from “Big Data”. Survey taking will be impacted by changing cultural behavior and by a changing physical-technical environment.
Release date: 2017-12-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500214248Description:
Unit level population models are often used in model-based small area estimation of totals and means, but the models may not hold for the sample if the sampling design is informative for the model. As a result, standard methods, assuming that the model holds for the sample, can lead to biased estimators. We study alternative methods that use a suitable function of the unit selection probability as an additional auxiliary variable in the sample model. We report the results of a simulation study on the bias and mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed estimators of small area means and on the relative bias of the associated MSE estimators, using informative sampling schemes to generate the samples. Alternative methods, based on modeling the conditional expectation of the design weight as a function of the model covariates and the response, are also included in the simulation study.
Release date: 2015-12-17 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500114161Description:
A popular area level model used for the estimation of small area means is the Fay-Herriot model. This model involves unobservable random effects for the areas apart from the (fixed) linear regression based on area level covariates. Empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means are obtained by estimating the area random effects, and they can be expressed as a weighted average of area-specific direct estimators and regression-synthetic estimators. In some cases the observed data do not support the inclusion of the area random effects in the model. Excluding these area effects leads to the regression-synthetic estimator, that is, a zero weight is attached to the direct estimator. A preliminary test estimator of a small area mean obtained after testing for the presence of area random effects is studied. On the other hand, empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means that always give non-zero weights to the direct estimators in all areas together with alternative estimators based on the preliminary test are also studied. The preliminary testing procedure is also used to define new mean squared error estimators of the point estimators of small area means. Results of a limited simulation study show that, for small number of areas, the preliminary testing procedure leads to mean squared error estimators with considerably smaller average absolute relative bias than the usual mean squared error estimators, especially when the variance of the area effects is small relative to the sampling variances.
Release date: 2015-06-29 - 9. A weighted composite likelihood approach to inference for two-level models from survey data ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201300211887Description:
Multi-level models are extensively used for analyzing survey data with the design hierarchy matching the model hierarchy. We propose a unified approach, based on a design-weighted log composite likelihood, for two-level models that leads to design-model consistent estimators of the model parameters even when the within cluster sample sizes are small provided the number of sample clusters is large. This method can handle both linear and generalized linear two-level models and it requires level 2 and level 1 inclusion probabilities and level 1 joint inclusion probabilities, where level 2 represents a cluster and level 1 an element within a cluster. Results of a simulation study demonstrating superior performance of the proposed method relative to existing methods under informative sampling are also reported.
Release date: 2014-01-15 - 10. On the performance of self benchmarked small area estimators under the Fay-Herriot area level model ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201300111830Description:
We consider two different self-benchmarking methods for the estimation of small area means based on the Fay-Herriot (FH) area level model: the method of You and Rao (2002) applied to the FH model and the method of Wang, Fuller and Qu (2008) based on augmented models. We derive an estimator of the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the You-Rao (YR) estimator of a small area mean that, under the true model, is correct to second-order terms. We report the results of a simulation study on the relative bias of the MSPE estimator of the YR estimator and the MSPE estimator of the Wang, Fuller and Qu (WFQ) estimator obtained under an augmented model. We also study the MSPE and the estimators of MSPE for the YR and WFQ estimators obtained under a misspecified model.
Release date: 2013-06-28
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Articles and reports (30)
Articles and reports (30) (0 to 10 of 30 results)
- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202300100006Description: My comments consist of three components: (1) A brief account of my professional association with Chris Skinner. (2) Observations on Skinner’s contributions to statistical disclosure control, (3) Some comments on making inferences from masked survey data.Release date: 2023-06-30
- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202200100003Description:
Use of auxiliary data to improve the efficiency of estimators of totals and means through model-assisted survey regression estimation has received considerable attention in recent years. Generalized regression (GREG) estimators, based on a working linear regression model, are currently used in establishment surveys at Statistics Canada and several other statistical agencies. GREG estimators use common survey weights for all study variables and calibrate to known population totals of auxiliary variables. Increasingly, many auxiliary variables are available, some of which may be extraneous. This leads to unstable GREG weights when all the available auxiliary variables, including interactions among categorical variables, are used in the working linear regression model. On the other hand, new machine learning methods, such as regression trees and lasso, automatically select significant auxiliary variables and lead to stable nonnegative weights and possible efficiency gains over GREG. In this paper, a simulation study, based on a real business survey sample data set treated as the target population, is conducted to study the relative performance of GREG, regression trees and lasso in terms of efficiency of the estimators and properties of associated regression weights. Both probability sampling and non-probability sampling scenarios are studied.
Release date: 2022-06-21 - 3. Empirical likelihood inference for missing survey data under unequal probability sampling ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100002Description:
Item nonresponse is frequently encountered in sample surveys. Hot-deck imputation is commonly used to fill in missing item values within homogeneous groups called imputation classes. We propose a fractional hot-deck imputation procedure and an associated empirical likelihood for inference on the population mean of a function of a variable of interest with missing data under probability proportional to size sampling with negligible sampling fractions. We derive the limiting distributions of the maximum empirical likelihood estimator and empirical likelihood ratio, and propose two related asymptotically valid bootstrap procedures to construct confidence intervals for the population mean. Simulation studies show that the proposed bootstrap procedures outperform the customary bootstrap procedures which are shown to be asymptotically incorrect when the number of random draws in the fractional imputation is fixed. Moreover, the proposed bootstrap procedure based on the empirical likelihood ratio is seen to perform significantly better than the method based on the limiting distribution of the maximum empirical likelihood estimator when the inclusion probabilities vary considerably or when the sample size is not large.
Release date: 2019-05-07 - 4. My chancy life as a Statistician ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100003Description:
In this short article, I will attempt to provide some highlights of my chancy life as a Statistician in chronological order spanning over sixty years, 1954 to present.
Release date: 2019-05-07 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254958Description:
Domains (or subpopulations) with small sample sizes are called small areas. Traditional direct estimators for small areas do not provide adequate precision because the area-specific sample sizes are small. On the other hand, demand for reliable small area statistics has greatly increased. Model-based indirect estimators of small area means or totals are currently used to address difficulties with direct estimation. These estimators are based on linking models that borrow information across areas to increase the efficiency. In particular, empirical best (EB) estimators under area level and unit level linear regression models with random small area effects have received a lot of attention in the literature. Model mean squared error (MSE) of EB estimators is often used to measure the variability of the estimators. Linearization-based estimators of model MSE as well as jackknife and bootstrap estimators are widely used. On the other hand, National Statistical Agencies are often interested in estimating the design MSE of EB estimators in line with traditional design MSE estimators associated with direct estimators for large areas with adequate sample sizes. Estimators of design MSE of EB estimators can be obtained for area level models but they tend to be unstable when the area sample size is small. Composite MSE estimators are proposed in this paper and they are obtained by taking a weighted sum of the design MSE estimator and the model MSE estimator. Properties of the MSE estimators under the area level model are studied in terms of design bias, relative root mean squared error and coverage rate of confidence intervals. The case of a unit level model is also examined under simple random sampling within each area. Results of a simulation study show that the proposed composite MSE estimators provide a good compromise in estimating the design MSE.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201700254888Description:
We discuss developments in sample survey theory and methods covering the past 100 years. Neyman’s 1934 landmark paper laid the theoretical foundations for the probability sampling approach to inference from survey samples. Classical sampling books by Cochran, Deming, Hansen, Hurwitz and Madow, Sukhatme, and Yates, which appeared in the early 1950s, expanded and elaborated the theory of probability sampling, emphasizing unbiasedness, model free features, and designs that minimize variance for a fixed cost. During the period 1960-1970, theoretical foundations of inference from survey data received attention, with the model-dependent approach generating considerable discussion. Introduction of general purpose statistical software led to the use of such software with survey data, which led to the design of methods specifically for complex survey data. At the same time, weighting methods, such as regression estimation and calibration, became practical and design consistency replaced unbiasedness as the requirement for standard estimators. A bit later, computer-intensive resampling methods also became practical for large scale survey samples. Improved computer power led to more sophisticated imputation for missing data, use of more auxiliary data, some treatment of measurement errors in estimation, and more complex estimation procedures. A notable use of models was in the expanded use of small area estimation. Future directions in research and methods will be influenced by budgets, response rates, timeliness, improved data collection devices, and availability of auxiliary data, some of which will come from “Big Data”. Survey taking will be impacted by changing cultural behavior and by a changing physical-technical environment.
Release date: 2017-12-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500214248Description:
Unit level population models are often used in model-based small area estimation of totals and means, but the models may not hold for the sample if the sampling design is informative for the model. As a result, standard methods, assuming that the model holds for the sample, can lead to biased estimators. We study alternative methods that use a suitable function of the unit selection probability as an additional auxiliary variable in the sample model. We report the results of a simulation study on the bias and mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed estimators of small area means and on the relative bias of the associated MSE estimators, using informative sampling schemes to generate the samples. Alternative methods, based on modeling the conditional expectation of the design weight as a function of the model covariates and the response, are also included in the simulation study.
Release date: 2015-12-17 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500114161Description:
A popular area level model used for the estimation of small area means is the Fay-Herriot model. This model involves unobservable random effects for the areas apart from the (fixed) linear regression based on area level covariates. Empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means are obtained by estimating the area random effects, and they can be expressed as a weighted average of area-specific direct estimators and regression-synthetic estimators. In some cases the observed data do not support the inclusion of the area random effects in the model. Excluding these area effects leads to the regression-synthetic estimator, that is, a zero weight is attached to the direct estimator. A preliminary test estimator of a small area mean obtained after testing for the presence of area random effects is studied. On the other hand, empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means that always give non-zero weights to the direct estimators in all areas together with alternative estimators based on the preliminary test are also studied. The preliminary testing procedure is also used to define new mean squared error estimators of the point estimators of small area means. Results of a limited simulation study show that, for small number of areas, the preliminary testing procedure leads to mean squared error estimators with considerably smaller average absolute relative bias than the usual mean squared error estimators, especially when the variance of the area effects is small relative to the sampling variances.
Release date: 2015-06-29 - 9. A weighted composite likelihood approach to inference for two-level models from survey data ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201300211887Description:
Multi-level models are extensively used for analyzing survey data with the design hierarchy matching the model hierarchy. We propose a unified approach, based on a design-weighted log composite likelihood, for two-level models that leads to design-model consistent estimators of the model parameters even when the within cluster sample sizes are small provided the number of sample clusters is large. This method can handle both linear and generalized linear two-level models and it requires level 2 and level 1 inclusion probabilities and level 1 joint inclusion probabilities, where level 2 represents a cluster and level 1 an element within a cluster. Results of a simulation study demonstrating superior performance of the proposed method relative to existing methods under informative sampling are also reported.
Release date: 2014-01-15 - 10. On the performance of self benchmarked small area estimators under the Fay-Herriot area level model ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201300111830Description:
We consider two different self-benchmarking methods for the estimation of small area means based on the Fay-Herriot (FH) area level model: the method of You and Rao (2002) applied to the FH model and the method of Wang, Fuller and Qu (2008) based on augmented models. We derive an estimator of the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the You-Rao (YR) estimator of a small area mean that, under the true model, is correct to second-order terms. We report the results of a simulation study on the relative bias of the MSPE estimator of the YR estimator and the MSPE estimator of the Wang, Fuller and Qu (WFQ) estimator obtained under an augmented model. We also study the MSPE and the estimators of MSPE for the YR and WFQ estimators obtained under a misspecified model.
Release date: 2013-06-28
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