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  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800110606
    Description:

    Data from election polls in the US are typically presented in two-way categorical tables, and there are many polls before the actual election in November. For example, in the Buckeye State Poll in 1998 for governor there are three polls, January, April and October; the first category represents the candidates (e.g., Fisher, Taft and other) and the second category represents the current status of the voters (likely to vote and not likely to vote for governor of Ohio). There is a substantial number of undecided voters for one or both categories in all three polls, and we use a Bayesian method to allocate the undecided voters to the three candidates. This method permits modeling different patterns of missingness under ignorable and nonignorable assumptions, and a multinomial-Dirichlet model is used to estimate the cell probabilities which can help to predict the winner. We propose a time-dependent nonignorable nonresponse model for the three tables. Here, a nonignorable nonresponse model is centered on an ignorable nonresponse model to induce some flexibility and uncertainty about ignorabilty or nonignorability. As competitors we also consider two other models, an ignorable and a nonignorable nonresponse model. These latter two models assume a common stochastic process to borrow strength over time. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to fit the models. We also construct a parameter that can potentially be used to predict the winner among the candidates in the November election.

    Release date: 2008-06-26

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016268
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper deals with non-response bias, discussing a few approaches in this field. It is demonstrated that non-response bias as to voter turnout is lower in a survey on living conditions than in a purely political survey. In addition, auxiliary information from registrations is used to investigate non-response and its bias among ethnic groups. Response rates among ethnic minority groups are rather low, but there is no evidence that response rates are less in lower social class areas. Correcting for limited socioeconomic deviations does not affect the distributions of political preference.

    Release date: 2002-09-12
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  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800110606
    Description:

    Data from election polls in the US are typically presented in two-way categorical tables, and there are many polls before the actual election in November. For example, in the Buckeye State Poll in 1998 for governor there are three polls, January, April and October; the first category represents the candidates (e.g., Fisher, Taft and other) and the second category represents the current status of the voters (likely to vote and not likely to vote for governor of Ohio). There is a substantial number of undecided voters for one or both categories in all three polls, and we use a Bayesian method to allocate the undecided voters to the three candidates. This method permits modeling different patterns of missingness under ignorable and nonignorable assumptions, and a multinomial-Dirichlet model is used to estimate the cell probabilities which can help to predict the winner. We propose a time-dependent nonignorable nonresponse model for the three tables. Here, a nonignorable nonresponse model is centered on an ignorable nonresponse model to induce some flexibility and uncertainty about ignorabilty or nonignorability. As competitors we also consider two other models, an ignorable and a nonignorable nonresponse model. These latter two models assume a common stochastic process to borrow strength over time. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to fit the models. We also construct a parameter that can potentially be used to predict the winner among the candidates in the November election.

    Release date: 2008-06-26

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016268
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper deals with non-response bias, discussing a few approaches in this field. It is demonstrated that non-response bias as to voter turnout is lower in a survey on living conditions than in a purely political survey. In addition, auxiliary information from registrations is used to investigate non-response and its bias among ethnic groups. Response rates among ethnic minority groups are rather low, but there is no evidence that response rates are less in lower social class areas. Correcting for limited socioeconomic deviations does not affect the distributions of political preference.

    Release date: 2002-09-12
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