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  • 1. New Birth Cohort Life Tables for Canada and Quebec, 1801-1991 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1997003
    Geography: Canada, Province or territory
    Description:

    For historical reasons, the best known life tables and those most often used are period tables. They are built using death rates by age for a short period of observation (often a single year) and have as their purpose to represent the status of mortality for this period. The survivors and deaths appearing in their columns are in a way abstractions rather than reality. It is thus erroneous to believe that the life table for a given year (for example, 1995) serves in any way whatever to predict the rate at which those born that year will pass away and, hence, of the average length of the life that they have just begun. With rare exceptions, the average number of years lived by individuals has always been longer than the life expectancy found in the life table constructed for the year of their birth. This is due to the fact that period tables are established using the risks of death by age prevailing in that year. But the ceaseless battle against death reduces these risks year after year for these ages and, by growing older, people benefit from these successive gains.

    To reconstitute (or foresee) the rate at which the members of a cohort have (or will) really pass away, it is necessary to deploy very long series of death rates by age and to possess reliable indicators of missing data, and then to adjust them to establish the actual experience of the persons in a cohort. Built in exactly the same way as period tables, these tables are naturally called cohort tables, but comparing observations of their parameters yields conclusions of a different kind.

    Release date: 1997-10-01
  • 2. Fertility Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1993-2016 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.

    It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.

    Release date: 1996-08-02
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  • 1. New Birth Cohort Life Tables for Canada and Quebec, 1801-1991 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1997003
    Geography: Canada, Province or territory
    Description:

    For historical reasons, the best known life tables and those most often used are period tables. They are built using death rates by age for a short period of observation (often a single year) and have as their purpose to represent the status of mortality for this period. The survivors and deaths appearing in their columns are in a way abstractions rather than reality. It is thus erroneous to believe that the life table for a given year (for example, 1995) serves in any way whatever to predict the rate at which those born that year will pass away and, hence, of the average length of the life that they have just begun. With rare exceptions, the average number of years lived by individuals has always been longer than the life expectancy found in the life table constructed for the year of their birth. This is due to the fact that period tables are established using the risks of death by age prevailing in that year. But the ceaseless battle against death reduces these risks year after year for these ages and, by growing older, people benefit from these successive gains.

    To reconstitute (or foresee) the rate at which the members of a cohort have (or will) really pass away, it is necessary to deploy very long series of death rates by age and to possess reliable indicators of missing data, and then to adjust them to establish the actual experience of the persons in a cohort. Built in exactly the same way as period tables, these tables are naturally called cohort tables, but comparing observations of their parameters yields conclusions of a different kind.

    Release date: 1997-10-01
  • 2. Fertility Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1993-2016 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.

    It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.

    Release date: 1996-08-02
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