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  • 1. Fertility Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1993-2016 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.

    It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.

    Release date: 1996-08-02
  • 2. The Impact of estimation method and population adjustment on Canadian life table estimates Archived
    Articles and reports: 82-003-X19950032450
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    Abridged life tables centred on 1991 were produced from the 1991 Canadian census, net census undercoverage estimates, and death data from 1990 to 1992. The sensitivity of life table values to differing methods of estimation and population estimates was investigated. The results from four methods by Greville, Chiang, and Keyfitz were compared, and population undercoverage, were used to test the effects of method and type of population estimate on life table values. The results indicate that the method used to derive the estimates had much less influence on the life table values than did the choice of population estimate. The change life expectancy at birth due to the method of calculation chosen was at most 15 days, whereas the change due to the population estimate chosen was about 73 days. Since there are age, sex and provincial variations in net undercoverage rates, life expectancies differed accordingly.

    Release date: 1996-02-09
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  • 1. Fertility Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1993-2016 Archived
    Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.

    It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.

    Release date: 1996-08-02
  • 2. The Impact of estimation method and population adjustment on Canadian life table estimates Archived
    Articles and reports: 82-003-X19950032450
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    Abridged life tables centred on 1991 were produced from the 1991 Canadian census, net census undercoverage estimates, and death data from 1990 to 1992. The sensitivity of life table values to differing methods of estimation and population estimates was investigated. The results from four methods by Greville, Chiang, and Keyfitz were compared, and population undercoverage, were used to test the effects of method and type of population estimate on life table values. The results indicate that the method used to derive the estimates had much less influence on the life table values than did the choice of population estimate. The change life expectancy at birth due to the method of calculation chosen was at most 15 days, whereas the change due to the population estimate chosen was about 73 days. Since there are age, sex and provincial variations in net undercoverage rates, life expectancies differed accordingly.

    Release date: 1996-02-09
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