Consistency of census and vital registration data on older Americans: 1970-1990 - ARCHIVED

Major uncertainties about the quality of elderly population and death enumerations in the United States result from coverage and content errors in the censuses and the death registration system. This study evaluates the consistency of reported data between the two sources for the white and the African-American populations. The focus is on the older population (aged 60 and above), where mortality trends have the greatest impact on social programs and where data are most problematic. Using intercensal cohort analysis, age-specific inconsistencies between the sources are identified for two periods: 1970-1980 and 1980-1990. The U.S. data inconsistencies are examined in light of evidence in the literature regarding the nature of coverage and content errors in the data sources. Data for African-Americans are highly inconsistent in the 1970-1990 period, likely the result of age overstatement in censuses relative to death registration. Inconsistencies also exist for whites in the 1970-1980 intercensal period. We argue that the primary source of this error is an undercount in the 1970 census relative to both the 1980 census and the death registration. In contrast, the 1980-1990 data for whites, and particularly for white females, are highly consistent, far better than in most European countries.