Administrative data for the estimation of population counts: Statistical learning from the first waves of Italian Permanent Population Census

Articles and reports: 11-522-X202100100005
Description: The Permanent Census of Population and Housing is the new census strategy adopted in Italy in 2018: it is based on statistical registers combined with data collected through surveys specifically designed to improve registers quality and assure Census outputs. The register at the core of the Permanent Census is the Population Base Register (PBR), whose main administrative sources are the Local Population Registers. The population counts are determined correcting the PBR data with coefficients based on the coverage errors estimated with surveys data, but the need for additional administrative sources clearly emerged while processing the data collected with the first round of Permanent Census. The suspension of surveys due to global-pandemic emergency, together with a serious reduction in census budget for next years, makes more urgent a change in estimation process so to use administrative data as the main source. A thematic register has been set up to exploit all the additional administrative sources: knowledge discovery from this database is essential to extract relevant patterns and to build new dimensions called signs of life, useful for population estimation. The availability of the collected data of the two first waves of Census offers a unique and valuable set for statistical learning: association between surveys results and ‘signs of life’ could be used to build classification model to predict coverage errors in PBR. This paper present the results of the process to produce ‘signs of life’ that proved to be significant in population estimation.

Key Words: Administrative data; Population Census; Statistical Registers; Knowledge discovery from databases.

Issue Number: 2021001
Author(s): Chieppa, Angela; Cibella, Nicoletta; Bernardini, Antonella; de Matteis, Giampaolo; Farano, Silvia
Main Product: Statistics Canada International Symposium Series: Proceedings
Format Release date More information
PDF October 22, 2021

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