Evaluation of small area estimation methods - An application to unemployment estimates from the UK LFS

This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

This paper describes joint research by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Southampton University regarding the evaluation of several different approaches to the local estimation of International Labour Office (ILO) unemployment. The need to compare estimators with different underlying assumptions has led to a focus on evaluation methods that are (partly at least) model-independent. Model-fit diagnostics that have been considered include: various residual procedures, cross-validation, predictive validation, consistency with marginals, and consistency with direct estimates within single cells. These diagnostics have been used to compare different model-based estimators with each other and with direct estimators.