Trends in reconvictions among adults sentenced to provincial custody or community supervision, 2015/2016 to 2020/2021

Released: 2026-02-19

Adults released from provincial custody or starting a community sentence from 2019/2020 to 2020/2021 were 17% less likely to be reconvicted within one year than those released from custody or starting a community sentence from 2015/2016 to 2018/2019. This notable decrease, which followed four years of relative stability, coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. The pandemic and related policy responses have had impacts on Canada's economy, health care system and society, leading to changes in how Canadians interact, socialize, learn and work. To at least some extent, these changes had an impact on crime patterns throughout the country.

Reconvictions are new offences committed within a specific timeframe and for which a conviction was reached in court (see Note to readers). Reconviction rates—the proportion of individuals reconvicted—represent an important measure of effectiveness in the criminal justice system. A decline in reconvictions indicates fewer instances of repeat offending, suggesting the system may be effective in rehabilitating and reintegrating individuals who have committed crimes.

This Daily release is being published alongside a set of tables providing annual data on reconviction rates for five provinces where data are available: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. These rates are broken down by type of correctional supervision, type of offence, criminal history, Indigenous identity and racialized group. These annual statistics could be useful for examining trends in reconvictions and for evaluating system-wide changes in policies and programs aimed at reducing repeat offending. However, they do not account for the impact of specific programs or services accessed by adults serving provincial sentences.

Most reconvictions occur within the first year of being released from custody or starting a community sentence

Among individuals who were released from provincial custody or starting a community sentence (e.g., probation) from 2015/2016 to 2016/2017, more than half (55% in 2015/2016; 54% in 2016/2017) were reconvicted within five years. Of those who were reconvicted over this five-year period, most (68% in 2015/2016; 69% in 2016/2017) were reconvicted within the first year (Chart 1). Substantially smaller proportions of individuals were reconvicted for the first time after two, three, four and five years.

Chart 1 
For most people who are reconvicted, this happens within the first year

Individuals released from custody are more likely than others to be reconvicted, but the gap is mostly explained by differences in the number of prior convictions

Individuals released from provincial custody were more likely to be reconvicted over the five-year follow-up period than those starting a community sentence. About 70% of individuals released from custody from 2015/2016 to 2016/2017 were reconvicted within five years, compared with approximately 45% of those starting a community sentence. Individuals serving a custody sentence tend to have more prior convictions than those serving a community sentence, reflecting a more extensive history of repeat or chronic offending. After accounting for the number of prior convictions, there is less difference between the reconviction rates of individuals serving a custody sentence and of those serving a community sentence.

Decrease in reconviction rates after the onset of the pandemic

The rate of reconviction for offences committed within one year was relatively stable across the correctional cohorts released from provincial custody or starting a community sentence from 2015/2016 to 2018/2019 (Chart 2). Over this four-year period, the proportion of individuals reconvicted within one year (37%) remained consistent. The 2019/2020 cohort is the first to deviate from this trend, coinciding with the onset of the pandemic. The proportion of individuals reconvicted within one year dropped to 32% in 2019/2020, and this was followed by a smaller decrease to 30% in 2020/2021.

Overall, this represents an average decrease of 17% in reconviction rates following the onset of the pandemic. Because reconvictions reflect the timing of the offence rather than the conviction, this decrease does not simply reflect changes in court practices and delays at the height of the pandemic.

Decreases in reconviction rates after the onset of the pandemic coincided with decreases in police-reported crime. This suggests that pandemic-related closures and restrictions may have reduced opportunities for certain types of crimes. For example, the closure of businesses may have reduced theft opportunities. Additionally, limited criminal justice resources may have led to fewer prosecutions for minor offences, potentially contributing to the overall decline in reconvictions after the pandemic began.

Chart 2 
One-year reconviction rates decrease after the onset of the pandemic

Decreases in one-year reconviction rates observed across all five provinces for which data are available

In line with the overall pan-Canadian trend, reconviction rates for offences committed within the first year decreased for pandemic-era cohorts (2019/2020 and 2020/2021) across each of the five provinces after the onset of the pandemic. The largest decreases were observed in British Columbia (-23%), Alberta (-23%) and Nova Scotia (-20%). Reductions were slightly smaller in Ontario (-14%) and Saskatchewan (-13%).

Importantly, these province-specific results should not be interpreted as indicators of the effectiveness of one correctional program over another. Differences likely reflect variations in population demographics, policies and criminal justice system contexts across provinces. By contrast, within-province trends are informative because they can shed light on changes within a given region and help to evaluate province-specific policies and interventions.

Largest decreases in reconviction rates for administration of justice and property offences; little change in violent reconvictions

Compared with the pre-pandemic period (2015/2016 to 2018/2019), cohorts observed during the pandemic (2019/2020 to 2020/2021) were less likely to be reconvicted of all types of offences within one year. The largest decreases were observed for offences against the administration of justice (-22%) and property (-20%) (Chart 3). These trends are consistent with police-reported crime in 2020 and 2021, which revealed substantial decreases in property and administration of justice offences. Administration of justice offences include breach of probation, failure to comply with an order, failure to appear and being unlawfully at large. Although administration of justice offences experienced the largest decrease in reconviction rates following the onset of the pandemic, they remained the most common type of reconviction.

By contrast, reconviction rates for violent offences committed within one year changed little following the onset of the pandemic (-2%). Over the same period, police-reported violent crime increased by 5%. Evidence suggests that the pandemic may have exacerbated crimes committed within the home (e.g., intimate partner and family violence), while also potentially having reduced opportunities for reporting these crimes.

Chart 3 
One-year reconviction rates decrease the most for administration of justice and property offences; little change for violent offences

Despite identical decreases in reconviction rates, disparities persist between Indigenous people and non-Indigenous people

Across correctional cohorts from 2015/2016 to 2020/2021, a larger proportion of Indigenous people (First Nations people, Métis and Inuit) were reconvicted compared with non-Indigenous people. Among individuals released from provincial custody or starting a community sentence in 2020/2021, 40% of Indigenous people were reconvicted within one year, compared with 26% of non-Indigenous people. Differences between groups were most pronounced for reconvictions for violent offences (16% of Indigenous people compared with 9% of non-Indigenous people) and administration of justice offences (30% of Indigenous people compared with 19% of non-Indigenous people).

Consistent with the overall trend, Indigenous people and non-Indigenous people saw the same relative decrease in reconviction rates after the onset of the pandemic (-18% for each) (Chart 4; Table 1). Despite these identical decreases, Indigenous people are overrepresented in the Canadian criminal justice system. The causes of this overrepresentation are complex and deeply rooted in historical and ongoing harms stemming from colonial policies and practices. Although First Nations people, Métis and Inuit have diverse histories and experiences, they face similar systemic challenges, including displacement, socioeconomic marginalization, intergenerational trauma, racism and systemic discrimination. In turn, these circumstances are often linked to the so-called revolving door of the criminal justice system, in which people repeatedly cycle in and out of the system.

Chart 4 
One-year reconviction rates decrease by the same proportion for Indigenous and non-Indigenous individuals

Reconviction rates slightly lower for Black people compared with White people, and Black people see a larger decrease following the onset of the pandemic

Across correctional cohorts, Black individuals had slightly lower reconviction rates compared with White individuals, and both groups were more likely to be reconvicted than other racialized groups. In the 2020/2021 cohort, 26% of Black people and 29% of White people were reconvicted within one year, compared with 19% of people belonging to other racialized groups.

When comparing pre-pandemic-era and pandemic-era cohorts, Black people (-21%) and people belonging to other racialized groups (-21%) experienced slightly larger declines in one-year reconviction rates compared with White people (-17%) (Chart 5; Table 2). This greater reduction was driven by larger declines in reconvictions for property offences and other Criminal Code and federal statute offences.

Although Black people are reconvicted at a lower rate than White people, they continue to be overrepresented throughout the criminal justice system. This overrepresentation has been linked to the enduring impacts of colonialism, socioeconomic marginalization, systemic discrimination and racism. Other research has shown that Black people are disproportionately more likely than White people to have contact with the police, to be charged in criminal court and to receive a long-term custodial sentence upon conviction. These intersecting disparities likely play a role in perpetuating the overrepresentation of Black people in the criminal justice system, despite their lower rate of reconviction.

Chart 5 
Largest decreases in one-year reconviction rates among the Black population and other racialized groups

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).