Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, December 2025
Released: 2026-02-16
Following two consecutive monthly declines, manufacturing sales increased 0.6% to $71.0 billion in December, with gains in 12 of the 21 subsectors. Higher sales of motor vehicles (+12.0%) and food products (+2.0%) contributed the most to the increase. These gains were partially offset by a 5.1% decline in petroleum and coal product sales. Compared to December 2024, total manufacturing sales were down 1.1%.
On a quarterly basis, sales edged up 0.2% to $213.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, the second consecutive quarterly increase. The gains were mainly driven by the petroleum and coal product (+6.0%) and primary metal (+4.6%) subsectors. Meanwhile, sales of transportation equipment declined the most, decreasing 2.5% to $33.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, led by the motor vehicle industry group (-3.6%).
In constant dollars, sales rose 1.8% in December, while the Industrial Product Price Index declined 0.6%.
Chart 1
Manufacturing sales
Motor vehicle manufacturing leads monthly increase
Following two consecutive monthly declines, sales in the motor vehicle industry group rebounded in December, rising 12.0% to $4.3 billion. The gain was entirely driven by increased production at a major auto assembly plant in Ontario, which had been operating partially in October and November due to semiconductor chip shortages.
Sales of food products in current dollars increased 2.0% to $13.3 billion in December, entirely on higher volume sold. The gain was widespread across several food industry groups including sugar and confectionery, fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food, and dairy product manufacturing. On a quarterly basis, food product sales edged down 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, following three consecutive quarterly gains.
In the petroleum and coal subsector, sales decreased 5.1% to $7.7 billion in December due to lower prices and a decrease in volume sold. The price decline was driven by lower crude oil prices, as a global supply surplus continued to put downward pressure on petroleum energy markets. In real terms, sales of petroleum products decreased 2.8% in December. On a quarterly basis, petroleum product sales rose 6.0% to $23.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the second consecutive quarterly gain.
Sales increase in six provinces, led by Ontario and British Columbia
Sales rose in six provinces, with Ontario and British Columbia posting the largest increases.
In Ontario, sales increased 1.5% to $30.8 billion in December, driven by higher sales of motor vehicles (+10.7%), food (+2.5%), and primary metals (+5.4%). The increase in motor vehicle sales in December followed a 14.8% decline in November. Meanwhile, sales of non-ferrous metal (except aluminum) were the key driver in the primary metal subsector. Year over year, total sales in Ontario were up 0.1% in December, while they decreased 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Sales in British Columbia rose 3.8% to $5.5 billion in December, on higher sales in 15 of the 21 subsectors and led by machinery. Machinery manufacturing sales rose 27.7% to $451 million in December, mainly due to higher sales in the other general-purpose machinery industry group. On a year-over-year basis, total sales in British Columbia were up 2.0% in December, while they increased 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Total inventories decline
Total inventories posted their third consecutive monthly decrease, down 1.2% to $119.8 billion in December. The decline was driven by lower inventories of goods in process (-2.5%), finished products (-1.2%), and raw materials (-0.4%). At the industry level, inventory of aerospace products and parts (-10.8%) was the largest contributor, followed by food products (-2.4%).
Chart 2
Total inventories decrease in December
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 1.72 in November to 1.69 in December. This ratio measures the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level.
Chart 3
The inventory-to-sales ratio decreases in December
Unfilled orders increase
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% to $114.4 billion in December, mainly on higher unfilled orders of electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing.
Chart 4
Unfilled orders increase in December
Capacity utilization rate decreases
The capacity utilization rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the total manufacturing sector fell from 78.7% in November to 76.8% in December. The declines were most noticeable in the non-metallic mineral product (-11.6 percentage points), petroleum and coal product (-3.7 percentage points), and transportation equipment (-3.0 percentage points) subsectors. The capacity utilization rate in the primary metal subsector increased 4.9 percentage points during the same period.
Chart 5
Capacity utilization rate decreases in December
Manufacturing: Year in review, 2025
Heading into 2025, Canadian manufacturers braced for geopolitical tensions and heightened trade uncertainty with the United States, including the prospect of tariffs on products shipped across the border. Sales of petroleum and coal products in 2025 were influenced by these tensions through price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and shifting market demand. Steel and aluminum producers were subject to 25% tariffs on many of their products entering the United States, with rates later rising to 50%. Auto assembly plants experienced partial shutdowns at various points during the year due to ongoing uncertainty, and some facilities shifted model production in response to changing cost structures and supply pressures. Wood product manufacturers were also affected by tariffs, leading to production slowdowns and several sawmill closure announcements. In contrast, the aerospace manufacturing industry performed above trend in 2025, supported by robust demand and strong markets for business and commercial aviation, defense programs, and maintenance services.
Total manufacturing sales in 2025 decreased 0.4% to $848.7 billion, following a decline of 1.7% in 2024. The overall decrease in 2025 was driven by lower sales in the petroleum and coal product (-7.1%) and chemical (-4.9%) subsectors and was partially offset by higher sales of primary metals (+6.7%) and food (+1.8%). In the first quarter of 2025, front loading of shipments was observed in some manufacturing industries, contributing to a 1.0% increase in sales compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. As tariffs were implemented in the second quarter of 2025, approximately half of manufacturers reported being affected through various channels, most notably price increases and higher expenses for raw materials.
On a constant dollar basis, total sales decreased 2.5% to $641.1 billion in 2025, with the largest declines reported in the petroleum and coal product (-5.2%) and food (-3.0%) subsectors.
Lower sales of petroleum and coal products
The petroleum and coal product subsector contributed the most to the decline in total sales in 2025, falling 7.1% to $89.1 billion. In the first half of the year, sales were reduced by lower demand for refined petroleum and energy products amid rising trade tensions and global economic uncertainty. In addition, several major refineries underwent maintenance shutdowns during the second quarter. In the second half of the year, refinery capacity increased, and prices for refined petroleum products rose, largely driven by higher diesel fuel prices stemming from tighter global diesel supply. Despite this improvement, total sales in 2025 remained below 2024 levels.
Sales in the primary metal subsector rose 6.7% to $71.2 billion in 2025, following two consecutive annual declines. While tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum impacted sales in the subsector, strong growth was reported in the non-ferrous metal (except aluminum) industry group. According to the Industrial Product Price Index, prices of basic and semi-finished products of non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (except aluminum) rose 21.9% year over year.
Total inventories increase
Year-end inventory levels in current dollars increased 0.3% to $119.8 billion in 2025. This was led by higher inventories of goods in process (+1.7%) and raw materials (+0.2%), while inventories of year-end finished products declined 0.8%. Among subsectors, 11 of 21 subsectors posted higher year-end inventories in 2025, with the largest gains observed in the machinery (+10.3%) and food (+5.1%) subsectors.
Year-end unfilled orders increased 7.0% to $114.4 billion, largely due to a gain in the ship and boat building industry group and the aerospace product and parts industry group.
Focus on Canada and the United States
The United States is important for Canadian manufactured products, serving as Canada's largest export market. In 2024, Canadian manufacturers sold about half of their products to foreign customers, with roughly 80% of those exports going to the United States. The transportation equipment and food product subsectors were the top exporters. Notably, in 2024, Canadian transportation equipment manufacturers sold approximately two-thirds of their products to the United States, which accounted for roughly one-quarter of total exports of manufactured products to the United States.
For more data and insights on areas touched by the socio-economic relationship between Canada and the United States, see the Focus on Canada and the United States webpage.
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Sustainable development goals
On January 1, 2016, the world officially began implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development—the United Nations' transformative plan of action that addresses urgent global challenges over the following 15 years. The plan is based on 17 specific sustainable development goals.
The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing is an example of how Statistics Canada supports the reporting on the global sustainable development goals. This release will be used to help measure the following goal:
Note to readers
Monthly data in this release are seasonally adjusted and are expressed in current dollars, unless otherwise specified.
Seasonally adjusted data are data that have been modified to eliminate the effect of seasonal and calendar influences to allow for more meaningful comparisons of economic conditions from period to period. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.
Trend-cycle estimates are included in selected charts as a complement to the seasonally adjusted series. These data represent a smoothed version of the seasonally adjusted time series and provide information on longer-term movements, including changes in direction underlying the series. For information on trend-cycle data, see Trend-cycle estimates – Frequently asked questions.
Both seasonally adjusted data and trend-cycle estimates are subject to revision as additional observations become available. These revisions could be large and could even lead to a reversal of movement, especially for reference months near the end of the series or during periods of economic disruption.
Non-durable goods industries include food; beverage and tobacco products; textile mills; textile product mills; apparel; leather and allied products; paper; printing and related support activities; petroleum and coal products; chemicals; and plastics and rubber products.
Durable goods industries include wood products; non-metallic mineral products; primary metals; fabricated metal products; machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; furniture and related products; and miscellaneous manufacturing.
Production-based industries
For the aerospace and shipbuilding industry groups, the value of production is used instead of the value of sales of goods manufactured. The value of production is calculated by adjusting monthly sales of goods manufactured by the monthly change in inventories of goods in process and finished products manufactured. The value of production is used because of the extended period of time that it normally takes to manufacture products in these industries.
Unfilled orders are a stock of orders that will contribute to future sales, assuming that the orders are not cancelled.
New orders are those received whether sold in the current month or not. New orders are measured as the sum of sales for the current month plus the change in unfilled orders from the previous month to the current month.
Manufacturers reporting sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars
Some Canadian manufacturers report sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars. These data are then converted to Canadian dollars as part of the data production cycle.
For sales, based on the assumption that they occur throughout the month, the average monthly exchange rate for the reference month established by the Bank of Canada is used for the conversion. The monthly average exchange rate is available in table 33-10-0163-01. Inventories and unfilled orders are reported at the end of the reference period. For most respondents, the daily average exchange rate on the last working day of the month is used for the conversion of these variables.
However, some manufacturers choose to report their data using a day other than the last working day of the month. In these instances, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent is used. Note that because of exchange rate fluctuations, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent can differ from both the exchange rate on the last working day of the month and the monthly average exchange rate. Daily average exchange rate data are available in table 33-10-0036-01.
Revision policy
Each month, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing releases preliminary data for the reference month and revised data for the previous three months. Revisions are made to reflect new information provided by respondents and updates to administrative data.
Once a year, a revision project is undertaken to revise multiple years of data.
Real-time data tables
Real-time data tables 16-10-0014-01 and 16-10-0015-01 will be updated on February 26.
Next release
Data from the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing for January will be released on March 13, 2026.
Contact information
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