Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2025 to 2075

Released: 2026-01-27

During a time of rapid demographic change, including historically low fertility rates and several recent changes in immigration and temporary resident policies, today Statistics Canada releases a new edition of its population projections for Canada (2025 to 2075) and the provinces and territories (2025 to 2050).

Moreover, the medium- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic remain uncertain, including those related to life expectancy or internal migration patterns. The new projections are an effort to consider the potential impacts of these changes on the future evolution of the Canadian population.

Population projections are not predictions. They offer several possible scenarios for future developments, based on recent trends and possible but uncertain future developments. They thus provide decision-makers and planners with an essential tool for anticipating the future.

This new edition takes as its starting point the Canadian population as estimated on July 1, 2025. It also takes into account the most recent trends in Canadian demographics, such as the Immigration Levels Plan released by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada in November 2025, but also long-term developments that have been identified as plausible through consultation with experts.

The Canadian population could exceed 57 million by 2075

According to the various projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 41.7 million on July 1, 2025, would continue to increase over the next decades to reach between 44.0 million (low-growth scenario) and 75.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2075. According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 57.4 million in 2075.

In all projection scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces in Canada over the next 25 years. The population of Alberta is projected to surpass the population of British Columbia in almost all scenarios.

The demographic weight of the populations of Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Quebec within Canada would experience a decrease from 2025 to 2050 under almost all scenarios. Conversely, the demographic weight of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta would increase under all scenarios.

Products

The results of the population projections for Canada (2025 to 2075) and the provinces and territories (2025 to 2050) are available in two tables: 17-10-0057-01 (population counts) and 17-10-0058-01 (components of population growth). They can also be consulted using an interactive data visualization tool, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Interactive Dashboard.

A short analytical document, Population Projections for Canada (2025 to 2075), Provinces and Territories (2025 to 2050), is also available.

The publication Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions, 2025 to 2075, which provides information on the methods and assumptions underlying the projections, is also available.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).