Canada's population estimates: Subprovincial areas, 2025

Released: 2026-01-14

On July 1, 2025, the total population of Canada's 41 census metropolitan areas (CMAs)—large urban centres with populations above 100,000—reached 31,169,100 people.

Following three years marked by strong population growth, CMAs experienced significantly slower population increases from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025 (+1.0%). In contrast, the population grew by 3.5% from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024.

At the national level, population estimates for the period from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, released on September 24, 2025, had identified the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents as the leading cause for slower population growth. This is reflected in the moderation of population growth in large urban centres where non-permanent residents are typically found in greater numbers.

Regions outside of CMAs also experienced slower population growth from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Census agglomerations (CAs)—smaller urban centres with populations ranging from 10,000 to 100,000—saw their population grow at a rate of +0.9% during that period, while areas outside CMAs and CAs grew by +0.7%. One year earlier, those areas had recorded growth rates of +2.0% and +1.0%, respectively.

While more recent than annual subprovincial population estimates, the latest population estimates for provinces and territories for the third quarter of 2025 show that Canada's population has decreased after July 1, 2025. This is the result of the changing government policies concerning international migration. Combined with the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada—the first such plan to include temporary resident arrival targets—the population growth rate could continue to slow down even further, or become negative, for large urban centres beyond July 1, 2025.

International migration continued to be the main driver of population growth of most CMAs in the 12-month period ending on July 1, 2025. However, permanent immigration has replaced non-permanent residents as the leading contributor to population growth among CMAs and CAs.

With the largest urban centres seeing their population grow at a pace close to the rest of the country, the rate of urbanization in Canada is unchanged from a year prior, with three in four (74.8%) Canadians living in a CMA as of July 1, 2025. Except for the 2020-to-2021 period—at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic—this is the first time since at least 2001/2002 (when comparable records began) where Canada's urbanization rate has not increased on a year-over-year basis.

Population growth slows across all census metropolitan areas as the number of non-permanent residents declines

The population growth rate from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, was lower for all 41 CMAs across Canada than during the previous year. This is in stark contrast to the 12-month period ending July 1, 2024, when 22 of the 41 CMAs recorded their fastest growth rates since at least 2001/2002 (when comparable data are available).

All CMAs across Canada also saw slower increase in the numbers of non-permanent residents, with 16 showing a decrease from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. This is in line with published estimates of the number of non-permanent residents for provinces and territories which show a decline in the total number of non-permanent residents beginning in late 2024, particularly among study permit holders.

The Toronto CMA saw virtually no change in its population (-992; -0.0%) from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. This is in contrast with a record growth (+269,143; +3.9%) a year earlier in Canada's largest urban centre. The gains from births (+63,778) and immigrants (+115,348) in the Toronto CMA were offset by the losses from deaths (-40,675), net change in non-permanent residents (-44,792), net emigration (-17,159), net interprovincial migration (-12,698) and net intraprovincial migration (-64,794). The net loss in non-permanent residents was by far the main contributor to the slowdown in growth, a marked change from the gain of +228,025 non-permanent residents one year earlier.

Compared to the previous year, the Montréal and Vancouver CMAs also saw significantly slower growth, mainly because of much lower increases in the number of non-permanent residents. The Montréal CMA grew at a rate of +0.5% from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, and recorded a net gain of +17,635 non-permanent residents (down from a net gain of +98,757 a year earlier). The population in the Vancouver CMA also grew at a slower rate (+0.2%), due to a net loss of 10,098 non-permanent residents, contrasted with a net gain a year earlier (+91,573). A year earlier, growth rates for the Montréal (+2.4%) and Vancouver (+3.7%) CMAs were much higher.

While experiencing a slowdown, population growth of several CMAs was strong. From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, growth rates in the Edmonton (+3.0%), Moncton (+2.9%) and Calgary (+2.9%) CMAs were the largest among all CMAs. Permanent immigration was the leading factor of growth in those three CMAs; the increase in the number of non-permanent residents and gains from migratory exchanges with other provinces also contributed significantly to growth in the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs.

New immigrants are increasingly settling outside the Montréal and Toronto census metropolitan areas

Increasingly, new immigrants are settling in areas outside Canada's largest urban centres, particularly in Quebec and Ontario.

From July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020, more than four-fifths (83.1%) of immigrants to Quebec chose to settle in the Montréal CMA, a proportion that decreased to below two-thirds (65.3%) in the 12-month period ending on July 1, 2025. Over the same five-year period, all remaining CMAs, all CAs, and areas outside of CMAs and CAs across Quebec saw their annual share of new immigrants rise. The largest increase was in the Québec CMA, more than doubling its share from 6.7% to 14.7%.

Similarly, the proportion of new immigrants to Ontario that chose to settle in the Toronto CMA declined from 76.1% to 60.5% over the same five-year period. In contrast, all other CMAs, as well as all but two CAs (25 of 27), and areas outside of CMAs and CAs in Ontario welcomed increased proportions of new immigrants to the province. The Ontario part of the Ottawa–Gatineau CMA saw the largest increase, with its share of new immigrants to the province in 2024/2025 increasing to 12.5%, up from 6.4% five years earlier.

Edmonton and Calgary census metropolitan areas remain top destinations for interprovincial migration

From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, Canada's three largest CMAs each recorded net losses from the migratory exchanges with other provinces. The losses were, however, less pronounced in the Toronto CMA (-12,698) than they were a year earlier (-25,740). The CMAs of Montréal (-6,114) and Vancouver (-4,656) also saw net losses from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. For Vancouver, this marked the second consecutive year of losses following a 10-year period where the CMA was consistently recording net gains from interprovincial migration.

In contrast, for the third consecutive year, the largest net gains from interprovincial migration among CMAs were in Edmonton (+11,742) and Calgary (+11,195). While these gains were smaller than those from the previous year, they remain among the highest seen for any CMA since at least 2001/2002.

In Atlantic Canada, large urban centres had seen higher gains from interprovincial migration since 2018/2019, but those have moderated or become net losses, according to the most recent figures. From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, the CMAs of St. John's (-716), Halifax (+1,098), Moncton (-363), Saint John (+82) and Fredericton (-290) each saw their lowest levels in at least four years.

The three largest urban centres continue to experience significant losses to other parts of their provinces

From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, the Toronto CMA recorded a net loss of -64,794 people from exchanges with the rest of Ontario. The CMAs of Montréal (-22,748) and Vancouver (-16,166) also saw net losses from exchanges with the rest of their respective provinces.

Those net losses are similar to the previous year for the three largest CMAs and are below levels recorded at the height of the pandemic. However, they remained above the largest losses recorded before the pandemic. Conversely, in the 12-month period leading to July 1, 2025, areas outside of CMAs and CAs across all provinces have continued to see higher gains from exchanges with urban areas within their provinces, making this the leading contributor to growth in those areas in Quebec and Ontario. This could indicate continued urban spread and a sustained appeal for rural areas in those provinces.

Products

The publication Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada (Catalogue number91-528-X) provides detailed descriptions of the most current data sources and methods used by the Centre for demography at Statistics Canada to produce demographic estimates as part of the Demographic estimates program.

The following products are also available as part of the series Statistics Canada―Data Visualization Products (Catalogue number71-607-X):

"Annual demographic estimates, census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations: Interactive dashboard,"

"Annual demographic estimates, census divisions: Interactive dashboard,"

"Annual demographic estimates, economic regions: Interactive dashboard," and

"Annual demographic estimates, rural and small town and functional urban areas: Interactive dashboard."

Contact information

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