Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 2025

Released: 2025-09-17

In 2025, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, corn for grain, barley, and oats but less soybeans, compared with 2024, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.

Yield estimates based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicate that plant health in Western Canada varied as of August 31. In areas that received sufficient precipitation and warm temperatures, crop conditions were considered higher to much higher than normal. In drier areas, crop conditions varied from similar to lower when compared with historical averages. In parts of the Prairies, the NDVI improved in Western Canada throughout the month of August, possibly the result of warm temperatures coupled with increased precipitation.

In Eastern Canada, much of the area was drier than normal throughout the growing season, which, coupled with higher temperatures, resulted in crop conditions rated as similar or lower than normal as of August 31.

Map 1 
Departure from average precipitation (in millimetres) for the past 30 days, as of September 1, 2025 (during the growing season), by province

Map 2 
Mean temperature difference from normal (in degrees Celsius) from August 5 to September 1, 2025 (during the growing season), by province

Map 3 
Vegetation growth index as of the week of August 25 to August 31, 2025, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Western Canada

Map 4 
Vegetation growth index as of the week of August 25 to August 31, 2025, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Eastern Canada

Wheat production expected to increase on higher yields

Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase 1.9% year over year to 36.6 million tonnes in 2025, largely attributable to higher anticipated yields, which are expected to rise by 1.8% to 51.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to remain steady, edging up by 0.1% to 26.3 million acres.

The increase in expected total wheat production is attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to edge up 0.3% to 26.6 million tonnes. The increase is a result of higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 1.9% to 53.1 bushels per acre, while projected harvested area is expected to fall by 1.5% to 18.4 million acres. Durum wheat yields are expected to rise 1.9% to 37.7 bushels per acre, while higher harvested area is expected to edge up 0.4% to 6.4 million acres, contributing to a 2.4% increase in durum wheat production to 6.5 million tonnes.

Wheat yields in Saskatchewan are expected to edge down by 0.2% to 44.7 bushels per acre in 2025, while harvested area is projected to drop by 2.4% to 13.8 million acres, resulting in a 2.6% decrease in production to 16.7 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Alberta is projected to climb by 12.0% to 11.1 million tonnes in 2025, as a result of higher yields (+9.4% to 52.5 bushels per acre) and harvested area (+2.4% to 7.8 million acres).

In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to rise by 1.3% to 3.3 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 6.9% to 60.9 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 5.7% year over year to 5.4 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to rise by 11.9% to 2.9 million tonnes year over year on higher harvested acres (+16.1% to 1.2 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-3.6% to 89.6 bushels per acre).

Higher yields push canola production up

Nationally, canola production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20.0 million tonnes in 2025. The anticipated increase in production is driven by higher yields, which are expected to rise by 6.2% to 41.2 bushels per acre, offsetting lower harvested area, which is projected to decrease by 2.0% to 21.4 million acres.

Saskatchewan is expected to produce 6.8% more canola in 2025 than in 2024, at 11.2 million tonnes. Yields are projected to increase by 6.0% to 40.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to edge up 0.8% to 12.1 million acres.

Canola production in Alberta is expected to increase by 2.8% to 5.8 million tonnes. The anticipated rise is the result of higher yields (+6.1% to 41.5 bushels per acre), mostly in the central part of the province, which received sufficient precipitation. Harvested area is expected to decrease 3.1% to 6.1 million acres.

In Manitoba, yields are expected to increase by 8.2% to 43.5 bushels per acre, but they are offset by lower harvested area, which is anticipated to fall by 9.6% to 3.0 million acres, resulting in a 2.2% decrease in production to 2.9 million tonnes.

Corn for grain production projected to increase on higher area

Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to increase by 1.0% to 15.5 million tonnes in 2025, with yields anticipated to fall by 2.0% to 165.3 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to rise to 3.7 million acres (+3.1%). Drier-than-normal conditions in major corn-producing provinces, coupled with high temperatures, may have contributed to lower anticipated yields.

In Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, production is expected to rise by 2.9% to 9.9 million tonnes on higher harvested area (+3.4% to 2.2 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-0.5% to 179.1 bushels per acre).

Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to fall by 5.4% to 3.4 million tonnes. Yields are anticipated to fall by 2.5% to 158.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3.0% to 849,800 acres.

Manitoba corn production is anticipated to rise to a record 1.9 million tonnes (+10.3%) in 2025. The expected increase in corn production is driven by higher harvested area (+19.6% to 596,600 acres). Yields are expected to fall by 7.7% to 128.6 bushels per acre, possibly because of dry conditions in the province.

Soybean production expected to decrease

Nationally, soybean production is projected to decrease by 5.7% year over year to 7.1 million tonnes in 2025 on lower yields (-6.9% to 45.7 bushels per acre). Harvested area is anticipated to increase 1.3% to 5.7 million acres.

Farmers in Ontario are projected to produce 4.0 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025 (-8.8% year over year). Harvested area is expected to fall by 7.0% to 2.9 million acres, while yield is anticipated to decline by 1.9% to 50.8 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase by 2.9% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2025. Harvested area is expected to increase by 15.6% to 1.6 million acres, though yields are anticipated to fall by 10.9% year over year to 39.2 bushels per acre this year.

In Quebec, soybean production is projected to decrease by 7.8% to 1.3 million tonnes on lower yields (-11.9% to 43.7 bushels per acre), which offset the expected 4.6% increase in harvested area to 1.1 million acres.

Farmers anticipate harvesting more barley and more oats

Nationally, farmers expect to produce 1.0% more barley year over year to 8.2 million tonnes in 2025, driven by higher yields, up 8.4% to 68.5 bushels per acre. Harvested area is projected to decrease by 6.7% to 5.5 million acres. Alberta is expected to produce more barley, rising by 2.8% to 4.3 million tonnes because of higher yields (+13.7% to 68.9 bushels per acre). In Saskatchewan, production is anticipated to increase by 1.3% to 3.1 million tonnes because of higher yields (+4.6% to 67.9 bushels per acre). Harvested area is projected to decrease 3.2% to 2.1 million acres.

Oat production is anticipated to rise by 0.4% to 3.4 million tonnes, a result of higher yields (+1.6% to 90.1 bushels per acre), offsetting lower harvested area (-1.2% to 2.4 million acres) in 2025.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).