Canadian international merchandise trade, January 2025
Released: 2025-03-06
In January, in the context of tariff threats on Canadian goods, Canada's merchandise exports increased 5.5% while imports were up 2.3%. It was a fourth consecutive monthly increase for exports and imports, and both reached record highs in January. Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world widened from a revised $1.7 billion in December to $4.0 billion in January. This was the largest surplus since May 2022.
Due to the implementation of the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) Assessment and Revenue Management (CARM) digital initiative and delays in the receipt of merchandise import data at Statistics Canada, estimates were added to the collected values in order to produce a more complete picture of Canada's import activity from October 2024 to January 2025. Please see the Note to readers below for more information.
Consult the "International trade monthly interactive dashboard" to explore the most recent results of Canada's international trade in an interactive format.
Focus on Canada and the United States
As described in the release ''Perspectives on country attribution in Canadian international merchandise trade statistics,'' Canadian imports from partner countries can be examined from two different perspectives within customs-basis data: using the country where the goods were grown, extracted or manufactured (country of origin); and the country from which the goods were directly shipped to Canada (country of export). The level of Canada's imports—and thus its net exports (exports less imports)—with trading partners can differ significantly depending on the approach used. Looking at both perspectives can provide a more complete understanding of Canada's trade relationships with partner countries.
Balance of payments (BOP) basis international trade statistics, which are typically featured in The Daily and are used as the official measure for Canada's trade balance, are based on ownership change between trading partners. A limitation within Statistics Canada's BOP basis data is that results are currently available by product for all countries combined, or for specific trading partners with all products combined. Two-dimensional analysis (by product and by country) requires the use of customs-basis data. Using the country of export for attribution of trading partners (rather than the country of origin, which is typically the focus in customs-basis statistics) brings customs-basis import statistics into closer alignment with the BOP basis statistics for imports from the United States.
In 2024, Canada's merchandise exports to the United States on a customs basis totalled $596.2 billion. Customs-basis imports from the United States, allocated by country of export, totalled $471.3 billion, resulting in net exports of +$124.9 billion.
Examining specific product sections, Canada's exports exceeded imports for 6 of the 11 categories in 2024. The category with the largest positive net export value by far was energy products (+$143.7 billion). Excluding energy products, Canada's net export value becomes negative (-$18.8 billion). The product section with the next largest positive net export value was metal and non-metallic mineral products (+$20.2 billion). The top categories where Canada had a negative net export value with the United States were electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-$29.2 billion), and industrial machinery, equipment and parts (-$23.5 billion).
Examining both the country of origin and the country of export in combination can shed light on supply chain logistics for Canada's imports. Many goods originating in other countries are first imported to the United States before being shipped to Canada. For example, in 2024, over 40% of Canada's imports that originated in Mexico were shipped to Canada from the United States. For Canada's imports of goods produced in China, over 25% were first imported to the United States.
Two new data tables introduced today offer the flexibility to analyze country attribution from different perspectives in Canada's merchandise import and export statistics.
For more data and insights on areas touched by the socio-economic relationship between Canada and the United States, see the Focus on Canada and the United States webpage.
Chart 1
Merchandise exports and imports
Exports jump amid threat of tariffs
Following a 6.0% increase in December, total exports increased 5.5% in January to reach a record of $74.5 billion. The strong increases in total exports in December and January occurred in the context of announcements from the United States federal government that tariffs on Canadian goods would be imposed. The announcement of tariffs may influence trading patterns and represent an incentive for importers to increase their shipments prior to implementation to avoid additional costs. Exports to the United States increased 7.5% in January and reached a record for a second consecutive month. The value of the Canadian dollar decreased 1.0% on average in January against the US dollar, which also contributed to the increase in total exports (and total imports) in the month; this was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the value of the Canadian dollar. In real (or volume) terms, total exports rose 4.5% in January, following a real increase of 2.6% in December.
Chart 2
Contribution to the monthly change in exports, by product, January 2025
Exports of motor vehicles and parts (+12.5%) increased the most in January, mainly because of higher exports of passenger cars and light trucks (+17.1%). In January, exports of passenger cars and light trucks ($6.1 billion) reached their highest level since May 2019; this follows low levels observed throughout 2024, mainly because of reduced output. The Canadian auto manufacturing industry is deeply integrated with the United States, with 93.4% of exports of passenger cars and light trucks destined to that country in 2024 on a customs basis.
Chart 3
Exports of passenger cars and light trucks
Exports of energy products increased 4.8% in January. Exports of crude oil (+2.9%) increased the most, mainly on higher prices that were partly the result of lower inventories in the United States. Exports of natural gas (+28.7%) also contributed to the overall increase in January, again mainly because of higher prices. Prices of natural gas were impacted by colder weather across much of the United States in January, which raised natural gas demand. Excluding energy products, total exports increased 5.7% in January.
Exports of consumer goods rose 7.8% in January. Following a strong decline of 22.8% in December, exports of pharmaceutical products surged 41.5% in January, mainly because of higher shipments to the United States.
Chart 4
Exports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products
Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts (+12.6%), which rose for a third consecutive month, also contributed to the overall increase in January. There were increases in all sub-categories in January, mainly because of higher shipments to the United States.
Chart 5
Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts
Imports increase in January
After rising 2.6% in December, total imports increased 2.3% in January. The largest contributors to the increase in January were imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (+23.6%), electronic and electrical equipment and parts (+5.8%), and energy products (+8.5%). In real (or volume) terms, total imports were up 1.5% in January.
Statistics on imports are primarily based on administrative data from the CBSA and are generally not subject to significant estimation. However, given delays in the receipt of import data for October 2024 through January 2025 due to the CARM digital initiative, estimated values were added to a majority of the product categories to compensate for the outstanding transactions. Users of merchandise import statistics should exercise caution when analyzing and interpreting the data and should expect significant revisions to the results for these months in future publications. Please see the Note to readers below for more information.
The trade surplus with the United States reaches a record high
Following a 6.8% increase in November and a 6.3% increase in December, exports to the United States rose 7.5% in January, reaching a record of $58.2 billion. Meanwhile, imports from the United States increased 4.7%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States widened from $12.3 billion in December to a record $14.4 billion in January. The recent rise in trade with the United States coincided with threats of tariffs on imported goods.
Exports to countries other than the United States fell 1.0% in January. Lower exports to Switzerland (unwrought gold and aircraft), South Korea (coal) and Germany (various products) were largely offset by a significant increase in exports to China (canola and various other products). Imports from countries other than the United States decreased 1.4% in January. Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States narrowed slightly, from $10.6 billion in December to $10.4 billion in January.
Chart 6
International merchandise trade balance
Revisions to December merchandise export and import data
Imports in December, originally reported at $68.8 billion in the previous release, were revised to $68.9 billion in the current reference month's release. Exports in December, originally reported at $69.5 billion in the previous release, were revised to $70.6 billion, in part because estimates for natural gas exports were replaced with actual data.
Monthly trade in services
In January, monthly service exports were down 1.1% to $17.7 billion. Meanwhile, imports of services decreased 0.4% to $18.4 billion.
When international trade in goods and services are combined, exports rose 4.1% to $92.1 billion in January, while imports increased 1.7% to $88.9 billion. As a result, Canada's total trade surplus with the world went from $984 million in December to $3.2 billion in January.
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Note to readers
Information on concepts and methods used for the monthly release of Canada's international merchandise trade is now available online. Please see "Notes on the monthly release of Canadian international merchandise trade" for more details.
For a detailed overview of the Canadian International Merchandise Trade program, please see "Guide to Canadian International Merchandise Trade Statistics."
Important notice to users of import statistics following the implementation of CBSA Assessment and Revenue Management (CARM)
Statistics Canada's primary data source used in the compilation of import statistics is undergoing a major transition as a result of the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) Assessment and Revenue Management (CARM) digital initiative, implemented on October 21, 2024. Despite improved coverage since the last publication of Canadian International Merchandise Trade statistics, delays in the receipt of import data at Statistics Canada continue to impact the completeness and quality of import statistics.
Analysis indicates that additional data volumes will be received after Statistics Canada's deadline for monthly collection for the reference months of October 2024 through January 2025. While strategies for producing estimates to account for the late receipt of data have been enhanced to maximize the comprehensiveness of merchandise trade indicators for these months, Statistics Canada's ability to respond to these issues is limited.
Canadian International Merchandise Trade statistics are produced on both a customs basis and a balance-of-payments basis. Customs basis statistics are highly detailed and multidimensional, while more aggregated balance-of-payments basis statistics are aligned with Canada's macroeconomic accounting framework and are the source for key indicators related to merchandise trade. Within the customs basis statistics, the use of estimates is limited compared with the balance-of-payments basis statistics, relying on placeholder estimates within the special transactions category to partially account for data expected to be received at a later date. Within balance-of-payments basis statistics, estimation is more comprehensive in order to produce a more complete picture of Canada's import activity throughout the various categories for the affected months.
In light of the issues that are temporarily impacting the completeness and quality of international merchandise trade statistics, users should exercise caution and expect material revisions until the situation stabilizes. This is particularly true for import statistics on a customs basis, where estimation is more limited. While revisions to balance-of-payments basis statistics may be less apparent at the total import level, values by category will still be subject to material revisions as actual data replace estimates. Statistics Canada will provide further updates as new information becomes available.
Real-time data table
The real-time data table 12-10-0165-01 will be updated on March 17.
Next release
Data on Canadian international merchandise trade for February will be released on April 3.
Products
The International trade statistics portal is now available on the Statistics Canada website.
The product "International trade monthly interactive dashboard" (71-607-X) is now available. This interactive dashboard is a comprehensive analytical tool that presents monthly changes in Canada's international merchandise trade data on a balance-of-payments basis, fully supporting the information presented every month in the Daily release.
The updated "Canada and the World Statistics Hub" (13-609-X) is now available online. This product illustrates the nature and extent of Canada's economic and financial relationship with the world using interactive charts and tables. It provides easy access to information on trade, investment, employment and travel between Canada and a number of countries, including the United States, Mexico, China, Japan, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain.
The product "Canada's international trade and investment country fact sheet" (71-607-X) is also available.
The online Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database is no longer available. It has been replaced by the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application (71-607-X), a modern tool that provides trade data users with a number of enhancements.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).
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